Arizona voter turnout in this election fell short of record

<>25 comments by Scott Wong and Matt Wynn - Nov. 5, 2008 08:30 PM
The Arizona Republic

More than 230,000 ballots remain to be counted, but voter turnout in 
Tuesday's election fell short of the record participation that had 
been anticipated in Arizona.

As of Wednesday evening, the Secretary of State's Office reported 
that 64 percent of the state's roughly 3 million registered voters 
cast ballots in this presidential election. That figure mirrored 
voter participation in Maricopa County, where 63.7 percent of 1.7 
million voters turned out at the polls.

Those numbers are expected to creep up in the coming days as election 
officials process more than 200,000 provisional ballots and early 
ballots that arrived on Election Day.

But statewide turnout in this year's presidential contest - featuring 
Arizona favorite son John McCain and Barack Obama, the first Black 
nominee of a major political party - won't top the 80 percent turnout 
seen in 1980, when Ronald Reagan unseated incumbent Jimmy Carter.

In fact, it probably won't even best the participation seen in the 
previous presidential race in 2004, when George W. Bush defeated John 
Kerry.

Turnout that year was 77 percent.

State and county election officials had projected turnout to climb as 
high as 80 to 85 percent on Tuesday because of the historic nature of 
the presidential race. But as a percentage, voter turnout appeared to 
be down from 2004 in all counties except Santa Cruz and Navajo.

Election officials in Maricopa County, the state's largest by 
population, said they still need to process about 230,000 ballots, 
with tabulation beginning today.

Roughly 118,000 early ballots arrived by mail or were dropped off at 
polling sites on Election Day; 12,000 came in earlier but also need 
to be counted.

Meanwhile, 100,000 provisional ballots - those given to voters who 
don't show up on precinct voter rolls or fail to produce proper 
identification - still need to be verified.

Yavapai County officials said they were tabulating about 7,000 early 
ballots and 3,500 provisional ballots. But outstanding ballots from 
the state's 13 other counties were not immediately known.

Early and provisional ballots could mean the difference in state and 
local races that are too close to call. Democrat Sam George and 
Republican Bob Stump are still battling for the third open seat on 
the Arizona Corporation Commission, while Jim Lane was leading 
longtime incumbent Mary Manross by 592 votes for the Scottsdale 
mayor's seat.

Proposition 101, the statewide initiative on a health-care system, 
was failing by just 2,288 votes.

Nearly 3 million Arizonans were registered for Tuesday's election, up 
400,000 from 2004. But by the time all ballots are counted, the 
number of voters who participated in this year's election could rival 
the 2.1 million who cast votes four years ago.

"It really depends on your point of view," said Deputy Secretary of 
State Kevin Tyne. "Some would say, 'We are right on the edge of 
setting a record for the number of Arizonans turning out to vote.' 
Others would say 'Oh, but there's a lower turnout percentage.' "

Wes Gullett, co-chair of McCain's Arizona presidential campaign, said 
turnout may have been down this year because neither McCain nor Obama 
engaged in expensive get-out-the-vote efforts in Arizona.

But he added that Republicans here benefited from the "McCain 
effect," bucking the Democratic tide that swept through the country. 
While the Arizona GOP lost one congressional seat, it appeared to 
make gains in the Legislature and other offices.

"Arizona was in a unique spot in terms of the election," he said.

"If John McCain had not been at the top of the ticket, it would have 
been a worse day for Republicans in Arizona. I do think there was a 
McCain effect in Arizona that was very positive."
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