Figuring Out How to Ration Ventilators if Swine Flu Gets Really Bad

http://blogs.wsj.com/health/2009/09/23/figuring-out-how-to-ration-ventilators-if-swine-flu-gets-really-bad/tab/print/

Let's make this clear up front: There's no sign that the H1N1 flu, 
which has thus far been widespread but relatively mild, is becoming 
significantly more severe.

But if the bug were to mutate to become much, much more deadly, the 
need for ventilators would far
outstrip the supply. That could create very difficult dilemmas, 
including whether to take dying patients off
of ventilators in order to free the machines up for patients who have 
a better chance of surviving.

State and federal officials have been working out plans for just how 
to handle those sorts of situations,
largely out of sight of the public, ProPublica reports this evening.

Last year, well before the current outbreak, the state of New York 
published proposed criteria for allocating ventilators in case of a 
severe pandemic. Among other things, those criteria would 
automatically exclude certain patients, such as those with terminal 
cancer or late-stage heart failure, if demand for ventilators 
exceeded supply.

At the time, we asked one of the authors of the guidelines why public 
health officials don't just buy more ventilators. She said there are 
some stockpiles for emergencies, but ventilators require highly 
trained staff
to operate them, and staff would be extremely limited in a severe 
pandemic. "If you're sick enough to have that kind of intensive care, 
we can't just stick you in a hallway and give you a ventilator," she 
told us.

New York state officials have recently discussed the plan with 
doctors, hospital officials and other experts,
but the public has largely been excluded, the ProPublica article 
says. And the Veterans Administration and other states have drafted 
their own protocols, based in part on the New York plan.

Kenneth Prager, who is professor of medicine and director of clinical 
ethics at Columbia University Medical Center in New York, said the 
broader public hasn't had input into the state's plan. "Maybe society 
will say,
'We don't agree with your plan,'" he told ProPublica.

Still, he said the state's plan is ethically appropriate. "If we 
don't use triage, people will die who would otherwise have been 
saved" because of ventilators "being used to prolong the dying 
process of patients with virtually no chance of surviving."

The state Department of Health put out two press releases in 2007 
seeking public comment on a draft version of the guidelines. Seeking 
more public input in recent months was not a high priority because 
"we don't think we're going to get to the point where we're going to 
need to allocate ventilators," Claudia Hutton, the
department's director of public affairs, told the Health Blog.
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