There is no need for AI to beat human. All thats needed for AI is to be more economically efficient for typical programming job, than the average programmer.
Most programming jobs are like plumbing, and dont require much of thinking. Can AI in next 5 years write typical UI App or React.JS Web App? Or game? Or Server Rest API, or Data Processing? Or driver? Or db schema? With some human supervision. I think so. Thats enough to fire half or maybe even 80% of IT jobs.