Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: PTBA Keep Buying asalkan tahan lihat PER membesar selama 1 tahun ini.

Tue, 27 Jun 2006 06:32:13 -0700

Pak EKA, dg kondisi PTBA tsb dan juga akhir2 ini OD gemar ngeshort, dlm jangka waktu 3-6 bln apakah hold atau cut loss ?. Saya masuk di 3500-an.
 
Thanks advice-nya

EKA SUWANDANA <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Nickel feeling sih pasti tembus 10 USD, INCO bakal diatas 25000.
Soalnya ada aturan SEC amrik, kalo akuisisi harus ambil  juga saham anak persh. Jadi suatu saat bakal ada voluntary delisting. So BD sedang creat harga tertinggi.
 
Gw nggak tau dgn ANTM ngaruh nggak dgn nickelnya. Geraknya kadang aneh, mudah2an sih ngikut, soalnya masih punya.
 
Utk PTBA kemarin q1 rugi kursnya itu sekitar Rp50Miliar, itu menurut saya sudah keterlaluan. ANTM, PTBA rugi kurs sebagai imbas Keppres (entah nomer berapa) baru oktober tahun 2005 yg lalu, supaya semua BUMN yg berpenghasilan dolar, harus langsung konversi ke rupiah dalam 1 bulan. Keppres ini gara2 krisis BBM dan jatuhnya Rupiah bulan agustus 2005. Jadi mulai okt 2005 ANTM dan PTBA acct USDnya selalu dikosongkan. Jadi bener2 BUMN2  nggak boleh nge-hedge. So saya sendiri punya perkiraan kuat PER PTBA nggak bakal pulih sampai q3. Sebenernya ini kepres nggak perlu, masak orang usaha nggak boleh hedging, sama sekali, saya pikir nggak ngaruh dgn currency. Economic Stupid!

Karno Edy <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Gw kira nickel akan tembus new high 10++
Strong buy INCO & ANTM
 
PTBA, I don't think real PER will be 30.
Kalo sekarang EPS nya 30 itu mah namanya EPS boongan, makanya yg ngga kuat nahan jual aja.
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: up_trends
Sent: Tuesday, June 27, 2006 10:10 AM
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: PTBA Keep Buying asalkan tahan lihat PER membesar selama 1 tahun ini.

London - Nickel gained 2.1% in London after Phelps Dodge announced a
$40bn buyout for two Canadian miners on Monday, suggesting that the
company believes metals prices will stay high in the longer term,
analysts said.
Phelps Dodge said it would acquire Inco and Falconbridge in a deal to
form the world's largest nickel and second largest copper producer.

"From the price they are prepared to pay, you have to infer that
Phelps Dodge believe that (metals) prices will stay strong. It's the
only way they can justify these sorts of numbers," a London mining
analyst said.

At midday London Metal Exchange nickel prices were $400 higher at
$19,600 a tonne.

Copper for delivery in three months was at $6,821 a tonne, up $41
from Friday but $2,000 below May's record peak.

"The new company will have greater control of copper, nickel and
molydenum production. This means they may be able to smooth out
cyclical price variations," UBS analyst Robin Bhar said.

"Both companies were swift to cut back production when prices were at
their lows in 2001...they may also be able to fast track projects
when prices rise."

Metals prices rocketed to record highs in May, in part due to strong
buying from investment funds, but also because of the laggardly
response by producers to increase output.

ABN AMRO analyst Tim Huff said of the Phelps deal: "This is a very
smart move. By setting the bid price for Inco, they don't complicate
Inco's bid for Falconbridge. That pins down Inco's share price and
revalues Inco's bid for Falconbridge."

Two rivals, Inco and Swiss-based Xstrata, have been engaged in a
bidding war for Falconbridge, and the Phelps Dodge move gives the
Inco bid a significant edge.

Huff added that Phelps Dodge may have been more interested in
securing Falconbridge's copper assets than Inco's nickel production.

"There are a lot of companies around the world...that want to
increase exposure in dollar-denominated production," he said
adding: "They are strengthening their copper stable and are getting
into diversification at the same time."

The bulk of the Canadian companies' production is located in North
America.

Miners in Australia and South Africa say they have not been able to
cash in on soaring metals prices because the dollar has fallen in
value against their domestic currencies, so reducing profits.

UK equity markets rose, lifted by the mining sector, led by
Kazakhmys, as hopes for consolidation were boosted by the Phelps
Dodge bid.

Fed sets the tone

Markets were thin ahead of a US Federal Reserve meeting later this
week. Analysts expect a quarter of a percentage point rise in US
interest rates to 5.25%, but precious metals dealers noted
speculation the Fed might increase rates by 50 basis points.

"It is too early to say which way metals will swing in the short
term, but we look to US economic developments - in particular the Fed
policy statement out on Thursday - to set the tone," Man Financial
said in a daily note.

Aluminium was up $23 at $2,472 a tonne from the London close, while
zinc was up $60 at $2,920.

In other commodities, oil inched down after signs of increased Iraqi
production but held just below $71 a barrel, supported by growing US
gasoline demand despite near-record prices, while gold edged up to
$584.00/oz.

--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Deddy" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> possibility yes, 3mths highest was 22.300?
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Herman " <power8100@> wrote:
> >
> > INCO Indonesia apakah Tender Offer ?
> >
> > Ada yg bisa Bantu ?
> >
> > Regards
> >
> > Herman
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> > [mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of up_trends
> > Sent: Monday, June 26, 2006 4:38 PM
> > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: PTBA Keep Buying asalkan tahan
lihat PER
> > membesar selama 1 tahun ini.
> >
> > Phelps Dodge offer for Inco equivalent of $80 a share
> > Could deter other bids
> > View Larger Image
> > Scott Hand, CEO of Inco, is trying to fend off a Teck Cominco
bid.
> > Photograph by : Photo by Peter Redman
> > Article Tools
> > Printer friendly
> > E-mail
> > Font: * * * * Drew Hasselback and Carrie Tait, National Post
> > Published: Monday, June 26, 2006
> > Another week -- and another round of premium price offerings for
> > Canadian mining shares.
> >
> > Investors will awake to news today that Phelps Dodge Corp. has
> > presented the market with a two-step deal that raises the stakes
in
> > the pursuit of control for both Inco Ltd. and Falconbridge Ltd.
> >
> > Phoenix, Ariz.-based Phelps Dodge has presented Inco's board with
a
> > takeover offer that values the company at the equivalent of $80
in
> > cash and stock.
> >
> > For Inco shareholders, the takeover would represent a 60% gain
over
> > the company's share price since October, when the Falconbridge
merger
> > was proposed.
> >
> > That transaction assumes the successful completion of a sweetened
> > deal to merge Inco and Falconbridge, both based in Toronto.
> >
> > Falconbridge investors who hang on to those Inco shares would
wind up
> > receiving the equivalent of $62 a share.
> >
> > That's more than double the $28 a share that Switzerland-based
> > Xstrata PLC paid in August to buy a 20% stake in Falconbridge
from
> > Brookfield Asset Management.
> >
> > A market source said yesterday that the Phelps Dodge plan could
be
> > rich enough to deter further bids. Inco has been fending off an
> > unsolicited bid from Vancouver-based Teck Cominco Ltd. Xstrata,
> > meanwhile, has tabled its own hostile bid for Falconbridge.
> >
> > The battle for control of the Canadian base metals industry was
> > expected to come to a head this week.
> >
> > Xstrata is set to challenge Falconbridge at a hearing before the
> > Ontario Securities Commission tomorrow. Inco's bid for
Falconbridge
> > bid was set to expire Friday.
> >
> > Mining shares have performed reasonably well over the past year
on
> > the back of strong metals prices. Yet the takeover battles
obviously
> > haven't hurt valuations, either.
> >
> > The fun began last August, when Brookfield decided to exit the
metals
> > business and sell off its stake in Falconbridge.
> >
> > The buyer was Xstrata, which paid $2-billion for the 20% stake,
then
> > said it wanted to be something more than a minority shareholder
in
> > Canada's largest mining company.
> >
> > Xstrata signed a nine-month agreement that would have forced it
to
> > top up the amount it paid to Brookfield by the difference of any
> > higher bid it might have made for the remaining 80%.
> >
> > That sent Falconbridge looking for a potential white knight. Inco
was
> > the answer, and the two companies announced a friendly merger
> > proposal last October.
> >
> > Combining Inco with Falconbridge would create the world's largest
> > nickel miner. Inco and Falconbridge had hoped to close the
> > transaction in February, but competition regulators in Europe
held up
> > the deal.
> >
> > That pushed the timing beyond the expiry of Xstrata's standstill
> > agreement with Brookfield. Once it was free and clear of its
> > obligations to Brookfield, Xstrata hit the street with an all-
cash
> > offer of $52.50 a share for the 80% of Falconbridge it didn't
already
> > own.
> >
> > Yet two key events took place before Xstrata launched its bid.
> >
> > In early May, Teck Cominco launched an unsolicited bid for Inco.
At
> > Friday's close, the bid values Inco at $67.24 a share.
> >
> > Just days later, Inco sweetened its offer for Falconbridge by
11%,
> > bringing the implied value for Falconbridge shares to $51.17.
> >
> > --- In obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>
> > yahoogroups.com, "up_trends" <up_trends@>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > INCO INCO INCO, ada yg punya berita terakhir? apa benar sudah
100%
> > > mau ditakeover?
> > >
> > > --- In obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>
> > yahoogroups.com, EKA SUWANDANA <esuwandan@>
> > > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > PER bakal membesar bukan karena harga naik. Tapi laba/eps
> > mengecil.
> > > Semua proyek PTBA materialised tahun 2009. Saya rasa tahun ini
PTBA
> > > bakal sideways lama 4 bulanan. Tapi bodoh saya, kalo nggak
> > ngumpulin
> > > dari sekarang. Yg dibahas orang2 hanya PLTU2 yg sahamnya
dimiliki
> > > PTBA, itu berarti cuma 3 PLTU. Bozz sudah tahu lebih dulu
ternyata
> > > ada tambahan 3 PLTU lagi yg dipasok.
> > > >
> > > > Halim Mintareja <hmin918@> wrote: saran saja...
> > > >
> > > > dulu sih waktu <3000 sangat tepat untuk beli PTBA.. apalagi
> > waktu
> > > itu PGAS >12.000.. konversi PGAS ke PTBA 1:4+
> > > >
> > > > Sedangkan di harga sekarang...
> > > >
> > > > PE PGAS < 20.. padahal output PGAS diharapkan tumbuh 2X di
> > bulan
> > > october 06.. dan 2X lagi di bulan Agustus 07
> > > > Jadi PGAS diperdagangkan pada harga PE 5-7 expected earning
> > dari
> > > 2007.. cukup murah sekali.
> > > >
> > > > Emiten lagi
> > > > ASII.. PE 8-9.. padahal sales udah bottom.. tahun depan
minimal
> > > naik 10-20%. Jadi diperdagangkan di expected PE 7 untuk 2007
> > > >
> > > > Lagi..
> > > > TLKM... PE (operating profit) 15.. dengan grow yang stabil di
> > 20-
> > > 30%. Kalau ditarik rata-rata 25% sampai 2009 berarti di
expected PE
> > 7-
> > > 8 untuk 2009
> > > >
> > > > Belum lagi ketiga emiten tersebut membagikan deviden yang
> > lumayan
> > > untuk tiap tahunnya sampai 2009
> > > >
> > > > Balik lagi ke PTBA.. kalau sekarang bermain di PE 35-40 itu
> > sama
> > > saja terlalu optimis... di PE 25-30 seperti sekarang udah
cukup..
> > > >
> > > > ngak akan kemana-mana... belum lagi kalau berita jelek mulai
> > > keluar.. pasti dapat tekanan sepanjang tahun... apalagi kalau
asing
> > > mau masuk... bisa dibantai abis ke bawah.. mirip PGAS dulu yang
> > dari
> > > 1.300 ke 1.100 dengan berita-berita super jelek beredar mulai
dari
> > > TV, surat kabar radio.
> > > >
> > > > Nah saran saya.. saat ini
> > > > jangan tambah barang di PTBA... terlalu berat... kalau tambah
> > > berarti bikin kesempatan orang untuk tekan.
> > > > Jangan pasang BID.. bikin bandar bisa keluar aja... kalau
> > memang
> > > betul-betul mau tambah hajar kanan saja.
> > > > Kalau ada kesempatan SOS... pindah ke 3 saham di atas. Ntar
> > tahun
> > > 2007 tengah balik lagi ke PTBA.. pasti kondisi sudah lebih baik.
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: EKA SUWANDANA
> > > > To: obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>
> > yahoogroups.com
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, June 21, 2006 1:49 PM
> > > > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] PTBA Keep Buying asalkan tahan
lihat
> > > PER membesar selama 1 tahun ini.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > UTK PTBA yg laba bersih akan mengecil sampai akhir tahun
> > ini.
> > > PTBA PER-nya bisa bermain di atas 35-40x. Memang menakutkan.
Tapi
> > > ingat PGAS tahun lalu PER-nya sempat dikisaran 50x. Tetap
diburu
> > dan
> > > ternyata sekarang terbukti, ada dikisaran belasan.
> > > > So PTBA asal bia tahan sampai 2008-2009 sambil melihat
> > > perkembangan crash program pemerintah. Bakalan seperti PGAS.
Jangan
> > > takut tahun 2008 tahun pemilu, SBY ingin meninggalkan kenang2an
> > PLTU
> > > 10000MW sbg legacy.
> > > >
> > >
> >
>



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