ya... sudah nungguin nih... kagak dikasih2.... jamuran.... :) 2009/2/18 XXX <bubbletra...@gmail.com>
> Kalau mau jadi investor long-term..7.700 mesti buy. Turunnya penjualan > ASII karena faktor ekonomi global, akan tetapi daya saing perusahaannya > sendiri masih tetap yahud. Saat ekonomi pulih, saham ini jg dengan cepat > akan recover. > > On Tue, Feb 17, 2009 at 12:13 PM, simon bolenang <simon_bolen...@yahoo.com > > wrote: > >> Risetnya bikin muntah darah. >> >> Headline: Astra International: January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse >> than >> what recent media reports indicated >> >> Abstract: January 4W sales fell 20% M/M, a negative surprise: 4W >> vehicle sales in Indonesia declined to 31,634 units in >> January—versus 34,000 unit sales, as indicated by Bloomberg. >> Volumes fell 23% Y/Y and 20% M/M. >> Vehicle sales have declined by 43% since October, and the pace of >> contraction continues to accelerate. We believe our forecast that >> vehicle sales will stabilize at 30,000 units per month faces downside >> risks. We are wary of a sudden increase in market share: In the past >> quarter, Astra’s market share rose to more than 60%. Although, we >> expect Astra to gain market share in a downturn, we believe the >> significant increase in its market share brings with it uncomfortable >> memories. In late FY05/early FY06, Astra’s market share increase >> resulted in large channel inventories and was followed by a decrease in >> sales volume (please refer to Figure 1). If a similar pattern is >> emerging, we are concerned that the recent increase in market share >> could be symptomatic of rising channel inventories, which may not bode >> well for volumes in coming months. >> Downward >> pressure intact; we stay UW: On February 11, 2009, ASII’s stock >> price fell over 6% on news (Bloomberg) that vehicle sales in January >> were 34,000 units. With actual figures being lower, we expect negative >> reaction to this data. Our FY09E EPS for Astra is 15% below the >> consensus estimate; we expect downward estimate revisions after a >> potentially weak sales release. We see this as a key negative driver. >> Hence, we reiterate our UW rating on Astra. >> We prefer UNTR within the group: Our Dec-09 PT of Rp7,700 for Astra is >> in line with its current book value, and based on 6x FY09E EPS, which is >> in line with previous trough values. Value accruing from Astra’s >> subsidiaries (which have recently outperformed the parent) is a risk to >> our view, but investors could look at UNTR directly to play this angle. >> >> >> >> >> >> > >
