ya... sudah nungguin nih... kagak dikasih2.... jamuran.... :)

2009/2/18 XXX <bubbletra...@gmail.com>

>   Kalau mau jadi investor long-term..7.700 mesti buy. Turunnya penjualan
> ASII karena faktor ekonomi global, akan tetapi daya saing perusahaannya
> sendiri masih tetap yahud. Saat ekonomi pulih, saham ini jg dengan cepat
> akan recover.
> On Tue, Feb 17, 2009 at 12:13 PM, simon bolenang <simon_bolen...@yahoo.com
> > wrote:
>>          Risetnya bikin muntah darah.
>> Headline:   Astra International: January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse
>> than
>> what recent media reports indicated
>> Abstract:  January 4W sales fell 20% M/M, a negative surprise: 4W
>> vehicle sales in Indonesia declined to 31,634 units in
>> January&mdash;versus 34,000 unit sales, as indicated by Bloomberg.
>> Volumes fell 23% Y/Y and 20% M/M.
>> Vehicle sales have declined by 43% since October, and the pace of
>> contraction continues to accelerate. We believe our forecast that
>> vehicle sales will stabilize at 30,000 units per month faces downside
>> risks. We are wary of a sudden increase in market share: In the past
>> quarter, Astra&rsquo;s market share rose to more than 60%. Although, we
>> expect Astra to gain market share in a downturn, we believe the
>> significant increase in its market share brings with it uncomfortable
>> memories. In late FY05/early FY06, Astra&rsquo;s market share increase
>> resulted in large channel inventories and was followed by a decrease in
>> sales volume (please refer to Figure 1). If a similar pattern is
>> emerging, we are concerned that the recent increase in market share
>> could be symptomatic of rising channel inventories, which may not bode
>> well for volumes in coming months.
>> Downward
>> pressure intact; we stay UW: On February 11, 2009, ASII&rsquo;s stock
>> price fell over 6% on news (Bloomberg) that vehicle sales in January
>> were 34,000 units. With actual figures being lower, we expect negative
>> reaction to this data. Our FY09E EPS for Astra is 15% below the
>> consensus estimate; we expect downward estimate revisions after a
>> potentially weak sales release. We see this as a key negative driver.
>> Hence, we reiterate our UW rating on Astra.
>> We prefer UNTR within the group: Our Dec-09 PT of Rp7,700 for Astra is
>> in line with its current book value, and based on 6x FY09E EPS, which is
>> in line with previous trough values. Value accruing from Astra&rsquo;s
>> subsidiaries (which have recently outperformed the parent) is a risk to
>> our view, but investors could look at UNTR directly to play this angle.

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