Hihihi, baru nyadar tuh si CS. Ketinggalan kereta bro,
sekarang mah waktunya jualan.
Masa kalah sama trader kampoeng, gue sih udah ngajak sejak
Februari, kekekek…
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/136609
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/137645
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/138672
Regards,
Yudizz
From:
obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:
obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ] On Behalf Of Herman
Sent: Friday, May 08, 2009 11:41
AM
To: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.
Com
Subject: [ob] Fw: CS Indo: Upgrade
Indonesia Overweight (Top Picks ASII, BUMI, UNTR), Upgrade ASII (21,200) &
UNTR
CS Indo: Upgrade
Indonesia Overweight (Top Picks
ASII, BUMI, UNTR), Upgrade ASII (21,200) & UNTR (11,400)!
ASIAN EQ STRATEGY: Upgrade
Indonesia Overweight- Top Picks
ASII, BUMI, UNTR
iSay: Asian Strategist Sakthi Siva is now Overweight
Indonesia
with Top-3 Picks in her model portfolio- ASII, BUMI & UNTR. Indonesian
Strategist Arief Wana has his Top-5 Picks in Indonesia ASII, PGAS, UNTR, BBRI
& TLKM. At JCI 1,798pts, CS Indonesia Universe is currently tr
adi ng on 13.0x-10.4x 2009F-2010F respectively (after
recent upgrades in Astra, Banks, and United Tractors), and assuming valuation
of 12x 2010F PER (historical average circa 13x rolling forward PER), JCI could
hit 2,100pt at year end.
·
Sakthi Siva (Flash Report): We are upgr adi ng
Indonesia to OVERWEIGHT from
Neutral – cheap Cyclicals, and
Singapore to OVERWEIGHT from
Underweight. In our reports on 23
April and 4 May, Any Cheap Cyclicals Left?,
we suggested that Indonesian coal was tr adi ng
at a 176% discount to the region. We are funding these upgrades by trimming our
Overweight calls on China
(up 96% from the October lows, the best performer) and
Korea . Top picks in
Indonesia-
we are keeping Astra International but adding Bumi Resources and United
Tractors.
ASTRA INT’L (ASII): Upgrades on better loans loss &
UNTR upgrade- reit Core Buy!
iSay: At Rp18,950/share, ASII is tr adi ng
on Undemanding 10.3x-9.1x 2009F-2010F PER, and 11% Discount to SOTP
Rp21,200/share. I agree with Arief Wana that ASII is a Core Holding in
Indonesia ,
due to quality management, diversified earnings from both Resources and
Domestic Consumers-related sectors, and solid balance sheet!
·
Arief Wana (Daily): Astra’s 1Q09 results showed
positive developments on two key fronts, namely 1) loss on repossessed assets
and 2) strong United Tractors’ performance. Coupled with a lower tax
rate, we are upgr adi ng our forecasts
by 12-17% for FY09E-10E and TP to Rp21,200 (from Rp14,500 previously).
·
Loss on reposessed assets, which was the major dragging factor in the
2006 crisis, was not a factor so far. In our view, this could suggest 1)
better, resilient purchasing power in general and 2) better control over
financing activities. We halve our loss estimates to Rp500bn (vs. 1Q09 of only
Rp67bn and 2006 of Rp949bn).
·
In addition, we have upgraded United Tractors by 17-42% on the back of
higher ASPs, weaker rupiah, and therefore margins (please see note/Daily
below).
·
Although we expect auto volume to remain soft this year (and bottoming
in 2Q09), we continue to like Astra International as a core holding for the
Indonesian market given its strong market positioning, conservative management
and strong balance sheet. Our new TP of Rp21,200 implies
a 10.2-11.5x FY09E-10E PER (which is relatively in line with the market for
FY10E) and 5.3-5.7x FY09E-10E EV/EBITDA multiples. We maintain our OUTPERFORM
rating on the stock.
UNITED TRACTORS (UNTR): Still Positive, Upgrade EPS & TP
(Rp11,400)- reit Buy
iSay: At Rp9,000/share, UNTR is tr adi ng
on Undemanding 9.8x-9.1x 2009F-2010F PER, and 21% Discount to SOTP
Rp11,400/share. I agree with Arief Wana that UNTR deserves a premium to
coal sector and market due to quality management and solid balance sheet, while
offering a unique leverage play on Indonesian coal production growth with
Upside from Coal mines acquisitions!
·
Arief Wana (Daily, Report emailed yesterday): We have just
published a report on United Tractors (UT). UT’s robust 1Q09 results,
stemming from higher ASPs, a weaker IDR and therefore margins – due to
inventory gains and a bigger proportion of higher margins in the parts and
services division – have beaten our as well as the street’s
expectations.
·
The strong results reaffirm our view that UT’s
business is not only resilient, but also offers positive leverage on a weaker
IDR. We have therefore upgraded our forecasts by 17-42% over FY09-11E (putting
our forecasts 13-23% above the street’s), while maintaining our volume
assumptions.
·
Despite the positive share price performance, we believe
that the recovery in equipment volumes and strong earnings are likely to be the
main catalysts for the company. Low gearing should give UT flexibility for
future expansion. We have increased our sum-of-the-parts-based (SOTP) target
price by 24% to Rp11,400 (from Rp9,200), implying 27% upside, a P/E multiple of
11.5x FY10E and 5.8x FY10E EV/EBITDA. We therefore maintain our OUTPERFORM
rating on the stock.
Best Regards,
Dharwin Yuwono, CFA
Director- Indonesia Equity Sales
PT Credit Suisse Securities
Indonesia
Sampoerna Strategic Square,
South Tower ,
23rd Floor,
Jl. Jend Sudirman Kav.45/46,
Jakarta 12930 ,
Indonesia
Dealing: +6221 2553
7920
Toll Free: 001 800
1233 2526 (HK)
Toll Free: +800 1233
2526 (SIN/UK/US)
Office : +6221 2553
7978 Fax : +6221
2553 7990
Mobile : +62811 979
788 Email: dharwin.yuw...@credit-suisse.com
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disclaimer
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