Data2 ekonomi sudah banyak yg mendukung kenaikan, yg terburuk
sudah berlalu, cahaya di ujung terowongan sudah terlihat.
Fundamental akhirnya yg mendukung kenaikan index, bukan
TA saja.
--- On Tue, 5/19/09, Stock Traders <stock.trad...@yahoo.de> wrote:
From: Stock Traders <stock.trad...@yahoo.de>
Subject: RE: [ob] The Dow Will Hit 10,000 in 2009
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Date: Tuesday, May 19, 2009, 1:37 AM
Yesss 10,000 after 4000 first though
From:
obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com [mailto:obrolan- ban...@yahoogrou ps.com] On
Behalf Of pemainbesar
Sent: Tuesday, May 19, 2009 12:30 PM
To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com
Subject: [ob] The Dow Will Hit 10,000 in 2009
Wall Street has been debating the huge run-up
in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Was March the beginning of a huge rally that will take the market to new highs?
Have we witnessed the proverbial "dead-cat bounce?" The
prognosticators have been unsure, uncertain and uncommittal about what they see
coming next...
So let me make it clear where I stand: We are in the beginning of a new bull
market that will carry us to 10,000 on the Dow by year's-end - and new highs
within
a couple of years.
Yes, the recovery will be volatile. But now is the time to buy, despite the big
run up.
No doubt there's plenty of bad news out there - rising unemployment with no end
in sight, threatened tax increases on capital gains and dividends, anemic
corporate profits, commercial real-estate insolvency, federal deficits,
continued threats from the Middle East and Afghanistan, the specter of
inflation and high interest rates among others...
This list goes on and on. But as the old saying goes, "Wall Street climbs
a wall of worry."
It's all for naught - and I encourage you to look past these sideshows and
distractions. I'm convinced the stock market is headed higher - a lot higher.
I'll share my reasoning and tell you why Jeremy Siegel feels the same way.
Three Reasons the Dow is Going Up
Over the past few months, three things have been sticking out to me like huge
blinking aircraft landing signals. Here's why we're going to keep moving up..
The Fed. Bernanke and the Federal Reserve are pulling out all the stops to
stimulate the economy. Since September 2008, the money supply (M2) has been
growing at an incredible 13% rate, one of the highest in the post-World War II
period.
As Milton Friedman has demonstrated time and time again, after a lag of between
six and nine months an easy money policy will cause a sharp recovery in the
economy and stocks. Economists call it the "Friedman Effect."
Mortgage support. The Obama administration has been working hard at bailing out
all the unstable banks, bad mortgages and bad assets in the economy through
massive deficit spending. Essentially, the government policy is putting a floor
under the residential real estate market, which will keep it from collapsing
any further.
History sides with the bulls. Last month, I had dinner with Jeremy Siegel,
professor of economics at the Wharton School and author of the bestseller
"Stocks for the Long Run." He is a firm believer in looking at
historical trends, something that many investors and Wall Street analysts have
forgotten. And right now, the trend favors the bulls.
Well, guess what? The lag is over, and the "Friedman Effect" is
taking full effect. We can expect higher stock prices and a recovery in the
economy by year-end. And as a result of the administration' s efforts, housing
sales are on the rise and real estate prices are stabilizing.
It's why I'm so interested in real estate lately. Take a look at my last
column, "Real Estate: The Buy of the Century."
Adding more fuel to my position, when I sat down with Wharton's Wizard he
showed me an interesting long-term chart of the S&P 500 Index.
The Wizard of Wharton's Long-Term Outlook
You'll note that every time the market hit the bottom of his long-term chart,
it rallied - sharply. And that's exactly where it was in late February when I
met with Professor Siegel - at the bottom.
Sure enough, in early March Wall Street rallied - and it hasn't looked back.
It's now up 30% from its lows. Between you and me, he called the exact bottom
of the stock market within weeks. (Of course, so did a few of our analysts as
well.)
How far up can it go? I asked this precise question to Professor Siegel last
month.
He told me that he has just completed a study of how well stocks do after a
major crash like the one we just experienced (falling 50% from its highs). His
conclusion was pretty striking: After a major bear market, stocks on average
rebound 24% the first year of recovery. And just as nice, the average annual
return over the next five years is 18%.
Since the Dow was around 8,300 at the first of the year, it could climb back to
10,000 by year-end. (And 18,000 by 2013.) We could comfortably hit these
numbers with an additional 19% gain.
Although many believe the "easy money" has been made - and they may
be right - the market will still offer plenty of profitable opportunities in
the coming months. It'll be volatile, but it's certainly not too late to get
aboard.
The article above was taken from an investment community in the U.S.
enjoy...
