*jangan melupakan sejarah, coba ambil pelajaran dari bear market investing
strategies karyanya harry
d schultz untuk melihat apa Sign untuk a bull market is ending, pada chapter 4
dia menguraikan sebagai berikut:
Bull market tidak akan bertahan bila keadaan ekonomi sedang
bimbang, seperti halnya bear market yang tiba-tiba menjadi bull market dengan V
shape, ketika indikator ekonomi melemah.
1. Indikator yang paling penting bahwa penurunan
masih berlangsung lama adalah ketika
sentimen investor masih bullish sementara struktur ekonominya terus melemah.
Tingkat pengangguran di US sangat lah tinggi sekarang ini.
2. Price earning ratio. Bandingkan saja kondisi
sekarang dengan rata-rata P/E ratio sepertinya memang saat ini sudah sangat
tinggi.
3. The Federal Reserve. Tindakan Fed yang agresif
dalam menurunkan suku bunga sementara ekonomi terus berjalan ke arah selatan
mengindikasikan tidak ada lagi tindakan yang dapat dilakukan oleh pemerintah US
untuk menghentikannya.
4. Consumer and investor confidence. Pasar biasanya
beralih mejadi low volume ketika ada kecenderungan suram di masa depan. Mereka
yang membeli dengan jumlah banyak pada awal bull market dan kemudian menjual
pada ketika mulai bear market akan sangat mengesalkan.
5. Emas, pada kondisi ketidakpastian investasi pada
emas atau saham yang berproduksi emas menjadi pilihan utama
6. Real estate. Sangat normal bila real estate
harganya naik seiring dengan kenaikan di pasar saham. Pada inflationary bull
market, propery dianggap sebagai pilihan investasi yang baik. Tapi jika
deflationary bull market, property hanya awalnya saja harganya stabil terus
kemudian perlahan-lahan akan menurun.
7. Stock market action. Pada puncak harga ada yang
namanya “Churning”. Seperti high volume tapi tidak terjadi perubahan harga,
atau ketidaknormalan (ada yang naiknya tinggi tapi ada juga yang turunnya
tinggi), ditambah dengan volatilitas harga yang semakin tinggi.
8. Unanimity of bullish forecast. Pemimpin bisnis,
brokers, jasa penasihat, wartawan, dan pengamat semuanya bullish, setiap
penurunan
harga selalu diabaikan karena itu hanya bersifat sementara saja.
9. Sharp rise in debt. Pada puncak bull market, semua
dapat untung tanpa ada risikonya (even monkey can make profit). Sehingga semua
orang dapat berutang dengan tenang, tinggal dibelanjakan saham dapat untung
besar nutup utangnya.
kesimpulannya kondisi di us memang sepertinya kurang favourable, bila stock
market kita tidak pararel pergerakannya denga dow jones sih bisa diabaikan,
namun kalo trading masih memakai patokan dow atau dow fut memng menghawatirkan.
Semoga
membantu. CMIIW*
Re: Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD?
Posted by: "Elaine Sui" elainesu...@gmail.com
Sat Jul 25, 2009 8:38 pm (PDT)
*I see more posts in OB now are bears. Some tech guys are pretending to be
calm both in OB and on my facebook wall, worrying that they may lose their
clients if they turn bearish too. Ok, no problem, you say what you wanna say
lah [?], but here's my comments:
1. UNEMPLOYMENT & 2. DEFLATION PROBLEM
I don't quite agree with 'bull market in US', it's just a bear rally. Next
week, the US 10yrs t-notes market will have to 'eat' the record $115+
billion bond auction that will -obviously- put heavy pressure on the
greenback. Last year, with the same of today's USD 'value', the oil price
skyrocketed to $140/barrel. Today's it's 'only' $60-$70/barrel.
(The Fed is selling American assets (to China). Did you know that Hummer car
license were sold to Sichuan Tengzhong? Did you know that all transformers
autobots are all GM cars? Have you wonder why the scene starts in Shanghai?)
Last April, I quoted Mr Mohammad this:
*
*"In the old days you needed to conquer a country with military force, and
then you could control that country. Today it's not necessary at all. You
can destabilize a country, make it poor, and then make it request help. And
[in exchange] for the help that is given, you gain control over the policies
of the country, and when you gain control over the policies of a country,
effectively you have colonized that country." - DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMMAD
(July 2nd, 2001)
*
*The US is crying for China help. Can we say China now has MORE control of
the US policies? Yes.*
*
Okay, back to USD vs Oil price, this tells us that the fall of the USD is
BIGGER than the rise of oil price, which means deflation (for non US),
combined with high unemployment rate, then we may see a rather fucked up
economy.
**Do you know why the int. rates keep lower and lower? This is the monetary
policy to endorse inflation (aka fight deflation), because those big guys in
the central banks know that the deflationary spiral is DEADLY.
Last year, normally the Fed should raise int. rate because of the inflation,
but since they are facing credit crunch -thanks to the subprime mortgage-,
they have to lower it.
But I understand that we're talking about STOCK market, I know the market
can be controlled for short term, but it will NOT move against the
fundamental, and fundamentally things are not something we're happy about.
What is deflationary death spiral? well, the Fed cannot do anything with the
interest rate as it's on all time low. All they can do is to issue new
debts, which will cause yield to skyrocket. In other hand, factories are
shutting down, or cutting their workforce.
This lead to lower tax, health care and insurance paid. (but don't worry too
much, this is only a theory, only happened once in 1930's)
If ppl have no income, they can't buy things. If ppl can't buy things,
factories will stop buying raw materials and cut more employees. If they
stop making products, then they can't pay their debts to the banks, which
then the banks fail to pay to the Fed. The Fed may fail to pay the treasury
int. to foreign investors.
* *
**NOTE THAT THE ABOVE COMMENT IS FOR US ECONOMY. IN OTHER HAND, THE ASIAN
TIGERS (CHINA, INDIA, AND INDONESIA) ECONOMY WILL BE LESS AFFECTED WITH THIS
PROBLEM (BUT THEIR STOCK MARKETS MAY GOT SEVERELY HIT) AS THESE COUNTRIES
RELY HEAVILY ON DOMESTIC/REGIONAL MARKET.
THE REAL PROBLEM MAY RISE IF -AND ONLY IF- THE US STARTS TO DEFAULT THEIR
DEBTS (UNABLE TO PAY THE INTEREST), COMBINED WITH RATING DOWNGRADES FOR USD
THEN WE WILL HAVE WORLD WAR III. (This is not a right thing to say, but you
must know that WAR creates DEMAND. Not just conventional war, but also
symbolic ones like war against 'terrorism', 'illicit drugs', 'child porn',
'piracy', 'deforestation' , etc etc)
**
*
*Luckily tech traders like JT and Tasrul only have to calculate the past
historical data (or predict couple days after), while I have to calculate
the possible scenarios for the next two quarters at least. :(( *
**
*
*
*3. NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR CRISIS*
*If the US economy is in danger, many of their enemy, namely Iran and North
Korea, may see this as a chance to destroy their common enemy. One single
incident can lead to a lot of destruction. May be triggered with the above
issues, when the US is 'off guard'. But I believe this has low chance to
happen, unless, US default their debts, China gets angry, and tells his
little brother Kim to sneak in. (Perhaps I read too much Tom Clancy's book
hee [?] )
*
*
*
*4. UNFAVORED ELECTION RESULT*
*Too sensitive to discuss. Pass. I don't know anything.
*
*
*
*5. H1N1 SWINE FLU OUTBREAK*
*Thailand economy already got hit with this pandemy, and potentially
millions can die because of this worldwide. Do not underestimate this issue,
live a healthy life today!
*
*
These are my opinions. May or may not happen, God help us all. Don't worry
and don't get overreacted like the last time, ada Artomoro bisa kasih so
much additional gain, to me and to all of us. [?] Elaine only bisa main saja
di OB until end of this month, after that you may want to put your hope on
Artomoro, -- that little Schubert ha ha. [?].
Who knows? perhaps he's Santa Claus in disguise, and can bring IDX to 2800
this year? But you have to know that they have a LOT of BAD NEWS to be
exposed: Deflation, Unemployment, Treasury Auction, Swine Flu, Election, El
Nino, Terrorism, default contracts, North Korea, China 'hoax growth',
Goldman's artificial high speed trading exposed (I told you about this last
year and I got flamed), etc etc will be in your daily newspaper headline.
I made two categories for source neutrality:
Neutral: World Bank, govt press releases, Reuters, AFP, SEC report
Not so neutral: CNBNC, Bloomberg, Fox News
highly provocative: Obrolan Bandar
See the difference? [?] Hmm, I think I write too much here and I know you
wouldn't listen to me anyway,.. [?] you never do.
*
Elaine
*
*
2009/7/24 boyz <m457...@yahoo. com.sg>
>
>
> Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in
> here.
> This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic
> debate.
>
> *Background:
> *
>
> - IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.*Technically
> speaking*, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% *Fibonacci
> Retracement* (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8%
> FR IHSG = 2170,31).
> - Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5.
>
>
>
> *Arguments:*
>
> Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar
> probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi.
> Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada
> potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-*discount current price*.
>
> Tapi melihat baru dimulainya *Bull Rally* di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI
> memasuki wave 3),* jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market
> psychology*, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam *euphoria
> *market regional.
>
>
> *
> So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur?
> Soft Landing or Hard Landing?*
>
> Please share your opinion.
> (*you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro
> economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of
> this post*).
>
>
> Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend.
> Salam,
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
