tergantung selera pak. Value-play konstruksi adhi, growth-play nya
wika. Sy lg rd demen yg growth sih pak. Sukur2 dikasih murah jd Garp.
On 9/4/09, Febry Hariyannugraha <febry.hariyannugr...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Mantaf Kang .. :)
> Jadi ADHI boleh nih Kang ?
>
> 2009/9/3 Bagus Putra Perdana <disclosure....@gmail.com>
>
>>
>>
>> Baru dikit pak, masuk radarnya juga baru.. haha.. baru 2-3 tetes. jangan
>> naek dulu lah.
>> earning momentum-jump story aja pak. Headwindnya dari Industri yg mulai
>> gerak diangkat suku bunga rendah en domestic exposure dr government
>> spending. manajemen kasih rilis order book sesuai target lebih-lebih
>> dikit.
>> Booster momentumnya dari niche nya WIKA. bisnis modelnya sih diversified
>> dan
>> punya Niche di segmen pembangkit dan EPC. extra boosternya proyek luar
>> negri
>> meski marjinnya tipis tapi profit dan trennya meningkat, continous order,
>> Skrg masih Sub nya Kajima tp ada kesempatan megang order sendiri. kemaren
>> raised cash dr equity issuance di harga yg lumayan dan berarti ada kas
>> internal capacity buat ekspansi. dan ekspansi yg cukup menarik ke aspal yg
>> bisa produksi banyak.
>>
>> ada jeleknya jg sih pak. WIKA lebih mahal scr valuasi dr ADHI, dengan
>> trade-off Profitabilitas dan pertumbuhan serta kualitas aset wika sedikit
>> lebih baik dr adhi (adhi membukukan penyisihan yg lumayan di balance krn
>> monorail dan proyek luar negri). yg masih perlu diperhatikan di langkah
>> ekspansi wika, saya blon sempet ngorek2 ke manajemen mengenai langkahnya
>> masuk ke batubara dan aspal dan berapa proyeksi IRR dan sensitifitasnya,
>> tapi yg aspal sepintas cukup menarik sih, meski yg batubara sih rada2
>> konyol
>> kayanya(latah).
>> untuk pick konstruksi memang ADHI condong ke value-play en WIKA ke
>> Growth-play.
>>
>> 1 hal lg yg saya belon pastikan (blon bikin proyeksi) adalah efek pajak di
>> muka yg jadi 3% dari pendapatan, kecuali WIKA bisa inflate nilai proyeknya
>> ini bisa nahan marjin. tapi jujur, valuasi WIKA yg sekilas agak mahal ini
>> bisa berubah 180 derajat jadi murah hanya denagn 1-1.5% margin improvement
>> di bottomline. dan amunisi untuk nipisin biaya en lebarin marjin bisa
>> banget
>> di tren penurunan harga en inflasi yg easing en lagi "IN" akhir2 ini.
>> risiko
>> downsidenya jg disitu berhubung marjin emg tipis kalo tiba2 ada gempuran
>> inflasi ya kudu siap ngabur dr sektor ini. headwindnya sih nopang ke
>> industri, tapi pick nya tergantung selera. WIKA agak mahal tp bisnis model
>> sedikit lebih baik, Adhi sebaliknya. saya sih lg males urusan sama
>> balance-sheet bermasalah jd lbh condong ke wika (rd males dig-in balance).
>> WIKA kuat di Upside potential, smntra ADHI bisa kasih downside protection
>> yg
>> lebih OK krn MOS lebih besar.
>>
>> duh saya belun kerjain "homework" saya di WIKA pak., baru masukin dikit,
>> niatnya sih di tune-in agak entaran ditambah sekalian kalo balance check
>> en
>> itungan pro forma jadi. tp ko udah rada rame disini yah. asem, santai
>> ajalah, yg adem-adem aja juragan. slow slow dulu gitu... lebih murah lebih
>> sip..
>>
>> On Thu, Sep 3, 2009 at 10:36 PM, JT™ <jsxtra...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>
>>> aha.., Kang Bagus juga lagi loading Wika..., cakep dah ! ...,
>>> inpes...inpes.... :)
>>>
>>> Powered by TLKM BullBerry®
>>>
>>> “ Good Trade Comes To Those Who Wait “
>>>
>>> ------------------------------
>>> *
>>> *
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to
>>> the
>>> complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact,
>>> everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know
>>> that
>>> we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned
>>> only
>>> to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of
>>> all
>>> knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific
>>> “truth”.
>>> - Richard Feynman
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the
>> complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact,
>> everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know
>> that
>> we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only
>> to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of
>> all
>> knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific
>> “truth”.
>> - Richard Feynman
>>
>>
>>
>
--
Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to
the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In
fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because
we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things
must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be
corrected.......The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is
the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman
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