Yes, as i said. Senoro and 47 is the main growth prospect. thats why APEX was sold, its for internal funding for the project.
too bad both project was interrupted. Senoro is interrupted and so does 47 Development. nonetheless Studies has completed for both project. It was ready to go. should Indonesian Government gave green light for Senoro at Upstream Scenario and Libyan Government permit China Petroleum's buyout for verenex. MEDC should trade above Rp.4000 both project is quite international level. GSA Signed should unlock their value. but the execution was not smooth. Block A Permit is ready i guess by beginning of next year.. Medco Cash usage is quite good. they wont fund up and start the project unless GSA is signed. cost efficieny is quite good. all of their fields is Onshore. cash cost is $10-$13. they protected themselves well against oil price downside. dependance to declining rimau is troubling the EPS target tough. mismatch. rimau decline sooner than 47 and senoro starts contributing. the quality of balance sheet is solid, hard asset is much bigger than intangibles. and its growing too (the oil & gas assets account) the P & L is not as nice, barely keeping the figure of last year's operation income much too rimau's declining. i am waiting for a nicer spot. their EPS figure this year would be weak. if other player lose their appetite. price go lower. ill take it happier. hehe.. On Thu, Sep 17, 2009 at 10:51 AM, Kabu Nusi <megasho...@yahoo.com> wrote: > > > > Senoro is complicated, since Political aspect entering the matter (would it > be a Lenong Betawi?). I guess, Block A, Sarula Geothermal Project, and Kaji > at Lematang (South Sumatera) will count Medco for now. Also watch Bunyu > Plant. In the long term, Area 47 progress would count, APEX was sold to set > initial finance for this major plan. Some clues in the LK? > > Salam, > > > > > --- On *Thu, 9/17/09, Bagus Putra Perdana <disclosure....@gmail.com>*wrote: > > > From: Bagus Putra Perdana <disclosure....@gmail.com> > Subject: Re: [ob] CoratCoretInfo.... Wajah MEDC > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Date: Thursday, September 17, 2009, 3:29 AM > > > > Yea i've build initial position on this counter recent., whether to > build up some more sizable size on this is whats makes me think over. > > unless say its go down a bit floorer, i wont hesitate to do so. the stock > is battered. the downside is already reflected. but the upside is capped > too. its a deadlock condition. many institutional conservative FM dont enter > this particular counter much of its declining production and executional > risk. but i guess am willing to go ahead curve this time.. > > long-term play its not to be doubt, given the "Only Wait For GSA" Prospect. > > trouble is i am checked by my superiors on 3 Month performance basis. damn > it. i cant build any sizable position on counters that is weak on operation > and entering capital-intensive period. it will be a loop-hole on their > production this 2 year. rimau is declining and Singa will only be a > deceleration counter balance. its not an expansion. nearest expansion is > block A. short term catalyst is Block A extension permission granted. but > that delayed production expand is troublesome. > > trader should be fine w that. any news on relaxing condition of permission > granted of their prospect should be transmitted quickly on the price. but i > am still obliged to take a cautious tone on this kind of oil & gas > bussiness. > > yea this counter is surely underrated. too much underrated, not because of > fundamentals but its because its lagging execution of its prospect, some of > which out of their domain. > > nonetheless for now i prefer it go further down. it'd be more delicate to > collect. > time is our friend w this counter. sooner or later. 47 and Senoro will > still have to be commencing. its only matter of time, err sorry.., matter of > execution.., lousy execution now. more time to accumulate at good > price before the GSA finalized period is better. > > > > any friend here from oil & gas industries?. tell me guys? how long could > we expect medco prospect senoro and 47 finalized the GSA?. thanks. those 2 > prospect were Jumbos. appreciate ur infos... > > On Thu, Sep 17, 2009 at 9:48 AM, vale sutomo > <vale.sut...@gmail.com<http://mc/compose?to=vale.sut...@gmail.com> > > wrote: > >> >> >> kok susah amat mikirnya. >> >> kalau saya target 5500. ini barang bagus yang ketinggalan kereta idx >> >> >> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >> > > > -- > Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the > complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, > everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that > we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only > to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all > knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”. > - Richard Feynman > > > > > -- Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman
