In addition, nickel futures in LME also down overnight with the expectation
for lower demand from China who's economic has set to cooling down.
On 4/11/07, Bettina Tan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Nice obs, however u used to nice assumption. In my opinion INCO Q1 will be
much lower than you have predicted, that's why a mild selling force is seen
at 60000 level.
On 4/11/07, gerus2000 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Dear all,
> Mumpung inco lagi adem ayem, ini tebak gw mengenai Q1 07 Inco.
>
> Hasil ubrek-ubrek FY06 Inco , Q306, dan data nickel price di LME,
> Asumsi :
> - Produksi seperti tahun lalu : 76100 ton matte nickel
> - Revenue : 30.270 /ton => 79% dari LME 3 month price jan-mar.
> Ngikutin FY06, inco reve = 18.350/ton, LME 3 month ave = 23.227/ton
> - Cogs : 8500/ton, meningkat dari data FY06 = 7.817 /ton
> - tax bracket 30%
>
> Kira-kira gini nih Q107 (dalam `000 USD):
> Rev : 575,868
> cogs : -161,713
> gross prof : 414,155
> SGA cost : -10,000
> ebitda : 404,155
> itdaothers : 0 => FY06 malah positif
> ebt : 404,155
> tax : -121,247
> net profit : 282,909
> eps : 0.2847
> dengan kurs 9.100 , maka eps = Rp 2.591
> Annualize : Rp : 10.634
>
> Kalau lihat harga awal jan 06 compare to eps 06, maka INCO dijual
> dengan PER sekitar 7.
> So harga wajarnya sekitar Rp 70.000,
> harga sekarang pas Rp 60.000. jadi masih bisa akumulasi.
> Apalagi ini nih yang dahsyat.. devidennya 0.5 dolar, sekitar
> 4.500….hmmmmm…
>
> Regards
>
>
>
