Makes sense sih, makanya rebound kali ini ccepet banget naiknya, mungkin untuk ngejar waktu. Make as much money as you can while you can make it.
On Tue, Oct 6, 2009 at 11:06 PM, dunia ini indah <pusatdu...@yahoo.com>wrote: > > > Dow Will Fall to 6,300 by Year End: Portfolio Manager > > > CNBC News Associate > > > With the prospect of higher unemployment hanging over the markets, some > experts expect a correction. So are they right? Michael Cuggino, president > and portfolio manager at Permanent Portfolio Funds, and John Lekas, CEO and > portfolio manager at Leader Capital, shared their insights. > > “I think we go below the double dip,” Lekas told CNBC. “By year-end, we > drop below 6,300 on the Dow and by 2011, we’re at 4,200.” > > Lekas said although Monday's ISM services index was “neutral,” the > unemployment number was at 785,000 last month and that number is expected to > worsen > > “So 26 to 27 million people who are out of work isn’t going to help the > economy,” he said. “And until that number gets better, we will not see a > recovery.” > > Lekas told investors to sell equities, buy short-term fixed income, stay > with high quality names and stay safe. > > > In the meantime, Cuggino said although there are risk factors and > uncertainty in the markets, earnings are going to continue to improve. > > “There’s also a tremendous amount of liquidity out there that will be used > to prime economic growth going forward,” he said. > > > > Charts Predict: The Weakest of the Big Stock Indexes > > The Nikkei 225 is currently the weakest of the major stock indexes and > could fall toward its March lows of around 7,000 points next month, Roelof > van den Akker, chartist at ING Wholesale Banking, told CNBC > > “We could see a decline into the next month towards the March lows around > 7,000, so that’s a serious decline,” Akker said > > If the Nikkei stays above the 200-day exponential moving average, investors > should expect a decline toward the support level of around 9,000 points, > according to Akker. > > From there, the Japanese index could bounce back slighting, but investors > should sell each rally, he said. > > There is a “bearish outlook for equities, particularly within the Nikkei, > which is one of the weakest stock markets at the moment,” Akker said. > > > > What Happens to Stocks When Economic Stimulus Fades? > > > Economic stimulus has been a friend to the stock market this year, but > investors are worried that the two may be parting ways in the coming months. > > Wall Street has surfed along on a six-month wave of support generated in > part on $787 billion in government stimulus that has complemented highly > accommodative fiscal policy at the Federal Reserve > > But central banks both in the US and globally have indicated the party will > be coming to an end soon. The Fed this month is ending its aggressive buying > of Treasurys and many analysts believe that while rate increases aren't > likely in the immediate term, the central bank will have to take some action > in the coming months to curtail inflation. > > Economist Nouriel Roubini referred to it this week as the "wall of > liquidity" which could end up tumbling down on Wall Street. > > "His wall of liquidity is what helped stocks. Money has to go somewhere, > and many perceived that stocks had hit a ridiculous low," says Peter J. > Tanous, president and director of Lynx Investment Advisory in Washington, > D.C. > > But now that the stock market has jumped 50 percent off its March lows, > market pros are wondering what will propel it higher. > > A need to curtail inflation, and its accompanying policy responses, could > provide a substantial obstacle if the Fed's actions get ahead of the > market's needs. > > "The tightening effect that everyone is looking for six months down the > road will be a reaction to the inflationary pressures that are caused by the > massive deficits and the massive spending. It takes time for all the money > to make its way through the economy and start affecting prices," Tanous > says. > > "Once it happens, the Fed has an itchy trigger finger to cut it off at the > pass very quickly. Everyone is thinking they want to get ahead of the > problem, not follow it." > > Indeed, inflationary fears raised their head Monday in unexpected fashion > > A $7 billion auction of 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities > fetched a high yield of 1.51 percent. More remarkable, though, was the > demand for the TIPS notes, reflected in what is known as the bid-to-cover > ratio. > > The ratio came in at 3.12, meaning investors bid $3.12 for every $1 auction > off, nearly 50 percent higher than the $2.10 average of the last five > auctions of similar securities. > > Investor reaction was curious considering the cold water that policy makers > have been pouring on inflation fears lately. The reaction could indicate > that inflation worries are bigger in the marketplace than are being > acknowledged. > > "What we've done here is built up another huge bubble, and the bubble > specifically is the US debt market," says Michael Pento, chief economist at > Global Delta Advisors. "When that pops—and it will, make no mistake—there > will be nobody left to rescue us. We've set ourselves up for a much worse > scenario." > > Pento puts a different spin on the stimulus story, contending that > injecting boatloads of stimulus that was generated through debt has only > made matters worse. The stimulus shouldn't have been used, he says, and > cutting it off now is too little, too late > > > "We've gone miles across the rubicon," he says. "There's no V-shaped rosy > scenario for what we are in. We're so far into debt and we've made so many > promises we can't keep. We can either have a very serious depression or get > on with the business of reinflating the bubble and trying to hyperinflate > our way out of this. I can guarantee neither will have a happy ending." > > To be sure, the scenario all depends on action at the central bank, which > can be unpredictable when it is looking to change monetary course. > > Fed Governor Kevin Warsh sent ripples of fear through the market last week > when he wrote an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal saying that > "prudent risk management indicates that policy likely will need to begin > normalization before it is obvious that it is necessary, possibly with > greater force than is customary..." > > The remarks were interpreted as meaning the Fed could begin to take steps > soon to ratchet down easy-money policies, and investors reacted by sending > stocks lower. Moreover, the incident may have provided a preview of market > reaction to upcoming Fed moves > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > + + > + + + + + > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > + + + + + > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > >
