Lagi short kali dia, jadi carita yg jelek2. :)
--- Pada Sel, 6/10/09, dunia ini indah <pusatdu...@yahoo.com> menulis: > Dari: dunia ini indah <pusatdu...@yahoo.com> > Judul: [ob] Dow Will Fall to 6,300 by Year End: Portfolio Manager > Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Tanggal: Selasa, 6 Oktober, 2009, 9:06 AM > > > Dow Will Fall to 6,300 by Year End: Portfolio Manager > > > CNBC News Associate > > > With the prospect of higher unemployment hanging over the > markets, some experts expect a correction. So are they > right? Michael Cuggino, president and portfolio manager at > Permanent Portfolio Funds, and John Lekas, CEO and portfolio > manager at Leader Capital, shared their insights. > > “I think we go below the double dip,” Lekas told CNBC. > “By year-end, we drop below 6,300 on the Dow and by 2011, > we’re at 4,200.” > > Lekas said although Monday's ISM services index was > “neutral,” the unemployment number was at 785,000 last > month and that number is expected to worsen > > “So 26 to 27 million people who are out of work isn’t > going to help the economy,” he said. “And until that > number gets better, we will not see a recovery.” > > Lekas told investors to sell equities, buy short-term fixed > income, stay with high quality names and stay safe. > > > In the meantime, Cuggino said although there are risk > factors and uncertainty in the markets, earnings are going > to continue to improve. > > “There’s also a tremendous amount of liquidity out > there that will be used to prime economic growth going > forward,” he said. > > > > Charts Predict: The Weakest of the Big Stock Indexes > > The Nikkei 225 is currently the weakest of the major stock > indexes and could fall toward its March lows of around 7,000 > points next month, Roelof van den Akker, chartist at ING > Wholesale Banking, told CNBC > > “We could see a decline into the next month towards the > March lows around 7,000, so that’s a serious decline,” > Akker said > > If the Nikkei stays above the 200-day exponential moving > average, investors should expect a decline toward the > support level of around 9,000 points, according to Akker. > > From there, the Japanese index could bounce back slighting, > but investors should sell each rally, he said. > > There is a “bearish outlook for equities, particularly > within the Nikkei, which is one of the weakest stock markets > at the moment,” Akker said. > > > > What Happens to Stocks When Economic Stimulus Fades? > > > Economic stimulus has been a friend to the stock market > this year, but investors are worried that the two may be > parting ways in the coming months. > > Wall Street has surfed along on a six-month wave of support > generated in part on $787 billion in government stimulus > that has complemented highly accommodative fiscal policy at > the Federal Reserve > > But central banks both in the US and globally have > indicated the party will be coming to an end soon. The Fed > this month is ending its aggressive buying of Treasurys and > many analysts believe that while rate increases aren't > likely in the immediate term, the central bank will have to > take some action in the coming months to curtail inflation. > > Economist Nouriel Roubini referred to it this week as the > "wall of liquidity" which could end up tumbling down on Wall > Street. > > "His wall of liquidity is what helped stocks. Money has to > go somewhere, and many perceived that stocks had hit a > ridiculous low," says Peter J. Tanous, president and > director of Lynx Investment Advisory in Washington, D.C. > > But now that the stock market has jumped 50 percent off its > March lows, market pros are wondering what will propel it > higher. > > A need to curtail inflation, and its accompanying policy > responses, could provide a substantial obstacle if the Fed's > actions get ahead of the market's needs. > > "The tightening effect that everyone is looking for six > months down the road will be a reaction to the inflationary > pressures that are caused by the massive deficits and the > massive spending. It takes time for all the money to make > its way through the economy and start affecting prices," > Tanous says. > > "Once it happens, the Fed has an itchy trigger finger to > cut it off at the pass very quickly. Everyone is thinking > they want to get ahead of the problem, not follow it." > > Indeed, inflationary fears raised their head Monday in > unexpected fashion > > A $7 billion auction of 10-year Treasury Inflation > Protected Securities fetched a high yield of 1.51 percent. > More remarkable, though, was the demand for the TIPS notes, > reflected in what is known as the bid-to-cover ratio. > > The ratio came in at 3.12, meaning investors bid $3.12 for > every $1 auction off, nearly 50 percent higher than the > $2.10 average of the last five auctions of similar > securities. > > Investor reaction was curious considering the cold water > that policy makers have been pouring on inflation fears > lately. The reaction could indicate that inflation worries > are bigger in the marketplace than are being acknowledged. > > "What we've done here is built up another huge bubble, and > the bubble specifically is the US debt market," says Michael > Pento, chief economist at Global Delta Advisors. "When that > pops—and it will, make no mistake—there will be nobody > left to rescue us. We've set ourselves up for a much worse > scenario." > > Pento puts a different spin on the stimulus story, > contending that injecting boatloads of stimulus that was > generated through debt has only made matters worse. The > stimulus shouldn't have been used, he says, and cutting it > off now is too little, too late > > > "We've gone miles across the rubicon," he says. "There's no > V-shaped rosy scenario for what we are in. We're so far into > debt and we've made so many promises we can't keep. We can > either have a very serious depression or get on with the > business of reinflating the bubble and trying to > hyperinflate our way out of this. I can guarantee neither > will have a happy ending." > > To be sure, the scenario all depends on action at the > central bank, which can be unpredictable when it is looking > to change monetary course. > > Fed Governor Kevin Warsh sent ripples of fear through the > market last week when he wrote an opinion piece in the Wall > Street Journal saying that "prudent risk management > indicates that policy likely will need to begin > normalization before it is obvious that it is necessary, > possibly with greater force than is customary..." > > The remarks were interpreted as meaning the Fed could begin > to take steps soon to ratchet down easy-money policies, and > investors reacted by sending stocks lower. Moreover, the > incident may have provided a preview of market reaction to > upcoming Fed moves > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > + + > + + + + + > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > + + + + + > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com > > > ____________________________________________________________________ Kunjungi halaman depan Yahoo! Indonesia yang baru! http://id.yahoo.com/
