Cuma agak harus hati-hati pak Antonius. Peningkatan laba bersih pada q1 terutama ditopang dengan perubahan nilai wajar obligasi konversi ... Apakah bisa terulang di Q2,3, dan 4 ??? Jadi perhitungan PER nya tidak bisa memakai angka disetahunkan, harus ada justifikasi lagi.
Faktanya sebenarnya dibalik cerita BLTA adalah laba bersih yang "hanya" dari usaha BLTA cuma berkisar 200 M saja (diluar konversi).. Belum lagi obligasi konversi ini dijamin dengan saham loh.. Artinya akan memberikan efek dilusi kepada para pemilik saham saat ini jika para pemegang hak obligasi menukarkannya dengan saham (seiring peningkatan harga saham). Belum lagi secara tersirat terlihat laba sebesar 200 M masih lebih kecil dibandingkan kewajiban obligasi sebesar Rp 300 M.. Weleh. So , must be carefull. Maybe not for invest anymore on this stock. Memang secara teknikal BLTA bisa dibeli.. Tembus downtrend dengan vol besar. Cuma sekali lagi laporan keuangannya ibarat air. Regards JV <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/82783;_ylc=X3oDMTJyOGl qaTU3BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE1BGdycElkAzE2NTIzNTUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDAxNzc5BG1zZ0lkAzg yNzgzBHNlYwNkbXNnBHNsawN2bXNnBHN0aW1lAzEyMTA4NDMwNDQ-> BLTA - Q1 2008 Result Astounding Posted by: "antonius martono salim" <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] lt%20Astounding> [EMAIL PROTECTED] <http://profiles.yahoo.com/martonosalim> martonosalim Thu May 15, 2008 1:51 am (PDT) hello i'm a young player in stock, has been long as OB member yet not so active. but really learn a lot from the seniors over here. just received from this milist a forward daily from kim eng securities about BLTA q1 result which is very interesting and today hike +10% is just the beginning. still very cheap according to me. since BLTA reports 515% increase on Net Income. new EPS Q1 = Rp 208,- which if we annualized = Rp 832,- or PER 2.58x at current price 2150. this makes BLTA the cheapest shipping company in the world since it peers trade at 8 -12x, FYI BLTA 2007 trade at 10 - 15x. if we take the lowest PE 8x then we will have Rp 6656 as the target price.since BLTA has high gearing ratio and volatilty to oil price to half of it ships (since almost 50% operational ship are contract base) we will be pesimistic and drop the PE to 4 or 5x then we will still have 3328 or 4160 as the target price. please comment i'm affraid i'm wrong. thanks
