While this is nothing new, what did suprise me was the apparent vigor with which the anti-GPL campaign is being waged.
The line now goes that GPL threatens the very foundations of our western society and our economic prosperity. This is what various trade groups are starting to present to government bodies.
One can almost see the AAFP/vendor deal as a partial response to this campaign. It's not really going to be about whether GPL (or FOSS in general, as most people won't be able to make a distinction) software is good enough or supported enough - that's just a thin shell of an excuse to not discuss the real issues at stake.
What's at stake is the business model. ON the one hand, what companies want is on-going service revenue, on the other hand, they also want up-front capital revenue. FOSS really forgoes the latter. And in the process, it forgoes most chances of a company reducing customer churn via either high capitalization or lock-in. IN a service business, customer churn is your worst enemy and if you only have the quality of your service to protect you, you really can't take your eye off the customer.
Then let's assume that service can become commoditized. At that point, there really is little that one can do to preserve service revenues. They will start declining.
I think we are just beginning to see the possible shape of the software industry if current trends continue. And it doesn't look good for anyone trying to sell and support software in the Western world. Outsourcing of programming and support talent to the rapidly developing world will happen whether the software is FOSS or not.
I think it's these economic realities that are creating the drive for companies as diverse as Apple, Microsoft, SUN and SCO (just to name a few) to make as much revenue as possible now off of software intelluctual property, because the creation of new IP is going to be far less expensive (and thus it can sell for less) than existing IP!
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Wayne Wilson
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