Per census.gov, the US population on Dec 29 was, rounded, 334 million.
"Cases" must include repeats.
Mac Sloan
On 23/01/04 8:49 PM, Jeff Kaufman via Organizers wrote:
"we've now crossed 100M cumulative cases in the US"
More like 400M: the CDC estimates that there were ~4x as many cases as
reported cases:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html
<https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html>
Jeff
On Wed, Jan 4, 2023 at 6:26 PM Lex Spoon via Organizers
<[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
It's a difficult subject but is important for all our dances. It's
heartening to see such a positive discussion of such an important
subject. If people can't talk about it here, then where, and if they
can't talk about it anywhere, then does everyone just have to be
dumb and to reinvent the wheel alone? I appreciate everyone's
courtesy and hope my message comes through the same way.
I agree, as far as they go, on the 11 high-level points in the
opening message, and also on the pragmatic approach of polling and
surveying your own, actual dancers. Contra dancers tend to be
special compared to the general public, and indeed that's some of
the appeal, for all us strange birds to find each other. Also,
thanks tremendously for the posted survey results, though I'd
underscore the issue of response level with surveys. The
non-responders may well be those who don't have a strong opinion and
who will simply comply with whatever the policy is.
The post about running an experiment on different policies resonated
with me. The Atlanta organizers did something similar when they
started opening up as well. The great thing about having an
experiment--e.g. different lines, or different policies on different
nights--is that you can see what people do with their feet, as
opposed to what they say in a survey.
Here are a few aspects I don't yet see mentioned.
So far the thread is about entry conditions, but an additional part
of a Covid policy is about how people treat each other. Similar to
policies about respectful treatment of each other, it's valuable to
encourage dancers to make no assumptions about each other's mask
status. As a personal note to show why this can be so important,
someone close to me was reluctant to wear masks for years, well
before Covid-19, because people would treat you so funny if they saw
a mask on you. Organizers can enforce this kind of thing by first of
all saying it's the policy, loudly and in front of the whole dance
hall; and also, they can show the door to anyone that just has to
make an issue out of everything and is making the others
uncomfortable. This kind of policy makes a dance very attractive as
a safe space during something that's a difficult time for all of us.
The thread on dances as spreaders raised an important question, but
alas not very convincing for me. As I quietly predicted, a bunch of
people posted about how they aren't aware of their dance being a
spreader. What did we learn, though? Contact tracing is hard at the
best of times, and I'm not sure people on that thread have done
careful evidence gathering such as randomized testing before and
after the dance. Our best information is therefore the general
research literature, even though it's not specific to contra dance.
The literature is dense, messy, and generally not as conclusive as
would be convenient for any of us. In general, though, all group
events are spreaders, and it would be a scientific miracle if even
the strictest contra dances aren't a source of transmission to some
level.
As people think about their own dance, bear in mind that different
dances have different conditions. National events with attendees
from all over are the worst spreaders and deserve the strictest
policies (to the extent they open their doors at all). At the other
end of the spectrum, dances with fewer attendees are less likely to
be spreaders. Dances with *local* attendees, especially by people
who already socialize with each other outside the dance, are also
less likely to be spreaders. Ventilation matters, with outside
dances being the least likely to spread Covid. Age matters as well;
younger dancers will have reduced symptoms and health risk.
It has happened by inches, but nowadays the U.S. population is
mostly immunized. According to the CDC, we're up to 80% who have had
at least one vaccine dose, and 69% who have received a complete
primary series. In addition to the vaccine, we've now crossed 100M
cumulative cases in the US. Between those two factors, most dancers
at an event will be immunized even with no overt policy at all.
Covid treatment is better than it used to be. I'm out of my depth
except to say that if you ask a health practitioner, you get an
incredibly different picture of the hospitals nowadays compared to
even a year ago.
Finally, it's not a yes/no policy question but has some options. You
can make masking optional but still require vaccination, etc.
Good luck everyone, and happy dancing this year, in whatever form it
may take.
Lex Spoon
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