That's right: lots of people have gotten covid multiple times at this point
On Wed, Jan 4, 2023 at 9:03 PM Walker Sloan via Organizers < organizers@lists.sharedweight.net> wrote: > Per census.gov, the US population on Dec 29 was, rounded, 334 million. > "Cases" must include repeats. > > Mac Sloan > > On 23/01/04 8:49 PM, Jeff Kaufman via Organizers wrote: > > "we've now crossed 100M cumulative cases in the US" > > > > More like 400M: the CDC estimates that there were ~4x as many cases as > > reported cases: > > https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html > > <https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html> > > > > Jeff > > > > On Wed, Jan 4, 2023 at 6:26 PM Lex Spoon via Organizers > > <organizers@lists.sharedweight.net > > <mailto:organizers@lists.sharedweight.net>> wrote: > > > > It's a difficult subject but is important for all our dances. It's > > heartening to see such a positive discussion of such an important > > subject. If people can't talk about it here, then where, and if they > > can't talk about it anywhere, then does everyone just have to be > > dumb and to reinvent the wheel alone? I appreciate everyone's > > courtesy and hope my message comes through the same way. > > > > I agree, as far as they go, on the 11 high-level points in the > > opening message, and also on the pragmatic approach of polling and > > surveying your own, actual dancers. Contra dancers tend to be > > special compared to the general public, and indeed that's some of > > the appeal, for all us strange birds to find each other. Also, > > thanks tremendously for the posted survey results, though I'd > > underscore the issue of response level with surveys. The > > non-responders may well be those who don't have a strong opinion and > > who will simply comply with whatever the policy is. > > > > The post about running an experiment on different policies resonated > > with me. The Atlanta organizers did something similar when they > > started opening up as well. The great thing about having an > > experiment--e.g. different lines, or different policies on different > > nights--is that you can see what people do with their feet, as > > opposed to what they say in a survey. > > > > Here are a few aspects I don't yet see mentioned. > > > > So far the thread is about entry conditions, but an additional part > > of a Covid policy is about how people treat each other. Similar to > > policies about respectful treatment of each other, it's valuable to > > encourage dancers to make no assumptions about each other's mask > > status. As a personal note to show why this can be so important, > > someone close to me was reluctant to wear masks for years, well > > before Covid-19, because people would treat you so funny if they saw > > a mask on you. Organizers can enforce this kind of thing by first of > > all saying it's the policy, loudly and in front of the whole dance > > hall; and also, they can show the door to anyone that just has to > > make an issue out of everything and is making the others > > uncomfortable. This kind of policy makes a dance very attractive as > > a safe space during something that's a difficult time for all of us. > > > > The thread on dances as spreaders raised an important question, but > > alas not very convincing for me. As I quietly predicted, a bunch of > > people posted about how they aren't aware of their dance being a > > spreader. What did we learn, though? Contact tracing is hard at the > > best of times, and I'm not sure people on that thread have done > > careful evidence gathering such as randomized testing before and > > after the dance. Our best information is therefore the general > > research literature, even though it's not specific to contra dance. > > The literature is dense, messy, and generally not as conclusive as > > would be convenient for any of us. In general, though, all group > > events are spreaders, and it would be a scientific miracle if even > > the strictest contra dances aren't a source of transmission to some > > level. > > > > As people think about their own dance, bear in mind that different > > dances have different conditions. National events with attendees > > from all over are the worst spreaders and deserve the strictest > > policies (to the extent they open their doors at all). At the other > > end of the spectrum, dances with fewer attendees are less likely to > > be spreaders. Dances with *local* attendees, especially by people > > who already socialize with each other outside the dance, are also > > less likely to be spreaders. Ventilation matters, with outside > > dances being the least likely to spread Covid. Age matters as well; > > younger dancers will have reduced symptoms and health risk. > > > > It has happened by inches, but nowadays the U.S. population is > > mostly immunized. According to the CDC, we're up to 80% who have had > > at least one vaccine dose, and 69% who have received a complete > > primary series. In addition to the vaccine, we've now crossed 100M > > cumulative cases in the US. Between those two factors, most dancers > > at an event will be immunized even with no overt policy at all. > > > > Covid treatment is better than it used to be. I'm out of my depth > > except to say that if you ask a health practitioner, you get an > > incredibly different picture of the hospitals nowadays compared to > > even a year ago. > > > > Finally, it's not a yes/no policy question but has some options. You > > can make masking optional but still require vaccination, etc. > > > > Good luck everyone, and happy dancing this year, in whatever form it > > may take. > > > > Lex Spoon > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > > Organizers mailing list -- organizers@lists.sharedweight.net > > <mailto:organizers@lists.sharedweight.net> > > To unsubscribe send an email to > > organizers-le...@lists.sharedweight.net > > <mailto:organizers-le...@lists.sharedweight.net> > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > > Organizers mailing list -- organizers@lists.sharedweight.net > > To unsubscribe send an email to organizers-le...@lists.sharedweight.net > _______________________________________________ > Organizers mailing list -- organizers@lists.sharedweight.net > To unsubscribe send an email to organizers-le...@lists.sharedweight.net >
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