http://web2.stratfor.com/news/2004TER/Story.neo?storyId=240840
Taiwan: Slim Chance of a Terrorist Attack
Dec 13, 2004 1815 GMT
On Dec. 13, Taiwanese police announced the arrests of five people in
connection with a March 19 assassination attempt against President
Chen Shui-bian, who was grazed by a bullet in the attack. The arrests
came a day after police revealed that at least two people likely were
involved in the Dec. 9 explosion at Taipei's railroad station.
These latest events have prompted Stratfor to examine the potential
for terrorism in the breakaway republic -- and to conclude that the
likelihood of a serious terrorist attack against the island is slim.
To begin with, Taiwan has no history of militant violence. Within the
past year, in fact, these two are the only cases of actual violence
against people or infrastructure on the island. Furthermore, the
threat of violence also has been minimal.
The following are the most serious incidents to occur in 2004:
* Dec. 9: Three days before Taiwan's parliamentary elections, a
minivan loaded with gasoline containers explodes in a parking lot
outside of the Taipei Railway Station. No one is injured. The blast
occurs as two television stations report receiving a written warning
that four bombs are set to explode at the railway station, the Taipei
101 building and two other locations. However, no other bomb is found.
Police describe the railway explosion -- which involved no additional
explosives or detonators -- as the work of amateurs.
* June 19: Eighty-five 200-gram packets of flocoumafen, or rat
poison, are found near water intake valves at the Chinsha Reservoir in
Kinmen County. Tests show that the poison has not entered the water
supply.
* May 20: The embassies of Panama, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic,
Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador receive warning for their staffs
to avoid Chen's inauguration. No details on the nature of the threat
are released. The inauguration proceeds without incident.
* March 19: Chen and his vice presidential candidate sustain
slight gunshot wounds on the eve of the presidential election. Chen
goes on to win the election.
Based on the rather benign nature of these incidents -- and their
amateurish approach -- Stratfor believes the potential for serious
terrorism in Taiwan is remote. Furthermore, most of these cases appear
to revolve around Taiwanese politics -- which certainly can be a
lightening rod for controversy, at the very least. Considering that
the next nationwide legislative elections are not scheduled until
2007, however, it could be quite some time before politically
motivated violence is seen on the island again.
Taiwan, most likely, really is as calm as it seems.
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