<http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GC09Df03.html>
Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and
Pakistan
Mar 9, 2005
Ominous call to arms in South Asia
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The arms race has begun anew in South Asia, with defense
planners in New Delhi eyeing controversial deals, while Pakistan's
neglected and cash-strapped military bosses in general headquarters in
Rawalpindi are having to come up with alternative strategies to counter
developments in India.
India's defense purchase strategy has changed, with Indian planners now
focused on the specific goal of neutralizing Pakistan's nuclear-warhead
capability, and once this is achieved, the military balance will turn
significantly in India's favor.
A top military strategist told Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity
that this new Indian planning covers a three-to-four-year period, with the
key being the proposed purchase of the United States' Patriot missile
defense system, which is capable of warding off nuclear attacks. US
officials from the Defense Security Cooperation Agency were recently in
India to give a presentation of the system, much to the indignation of
Pakistan.
The Indian Air Force is also evaluating four different fighters to replace
its ageing MiGs: the F-16, the Mirage 2000-5, the MiG 29-M2 and the JAS-39
Gripen. Pakistan's navy does not have a warhead-delivery system, and its
F-16s - which have nuclear-launch capabilities - could be contained by a
plane such as the Mirage 2000-5.
Pakistan's military decision-makers are now in deep consultations with the
Foreign Office and the Inter-Services Intelligence's Kashmir cell to
overhaul policies in light of what they see as new ground realities in
which they believe India will keep the Kashmir issue in limbo and make
breathing space for itself under the cover of confidence-building measures,
all the while planning to entrap Pakistan in a new strategic game.
The Mirage 2000-5 of Dassault Aviation of France is a multi-role combat
fighter with advanced avionics, including multiple-target air-to-ground and
air-to-air firing procedures. Its radar provides multi-targeting in air
defense and can simultaneously detect up to 24 targets, and then track and
scan the eight highest-priority threats.
The Mirage 2000-5 is a response to the US-made F-16s, which make up the
last remnants of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF). The PAF acquired 40 F-16s in
the late 1980s, but by 2004 many had been destroyed in accidents, while
others were cannibalized due to a lack of spares; now only a few are left.
Pakistan has been traumatized by what it sees as a US betrayal in reneging
on a contract to supply about 70 F-16s in the late 1980s. US officials say
the planes were held up because of congressional laws that required
Pakistan not to go nuclear, and that Islamabad crossed the line in the
sand, fully aware of the consequences, by doing just that on May 28, 1998.
Washington has since squared its accounts with Islamabad by returning (in
cash and goods) the money Pakistan had advanced toward the purchase of the
F-16s. But the episode has scarred Islamabad, and its military rulers still
make periodic pleas to the US for F-16s.
After Pakistan tested its nuclear weapons, the US refused to sell it
military hardware. Then came September 11, 2001, and the emergence of
Pakistan as an important ally in the "war on terror", and the ban on arms
sales was lifted. Pakistan's planners then went for purchases with the
mindset that Pakistan's missile-based rocket program was its deterrent
against any Indian military might, and India would not dare pursue a
conventional war in the presence of nuclear warheads.
Pakistan's purchases included submarines, missiles and tanks and other
conventional weapons and hardware. India, meanwhile, changed its plans to
center on the anti-missile Patriot system and the Mirage 2000-5, or a
similar such plane.
"It does not mean a dead end for Pakistan," a military expert told Asia
Times Online. "It is simply the start of a new arms race in the region, on
the same pattern previously between the US and the former USSR. US arms
were superior in quality and precision, which the former USSR lacked, but
it countered the US arms threat with a quantity of various types of
missiles of inferior quality, lacking in precision but well advanced in
range.
"Anti-missile Patriots are not impossible to be developed in Pakistan, but
obviously it could push for new clandestine operations, like access to the
black market, to get the technology and materials required. Obviously, it
would be a lesser match, but it would tactically suffice to maintain the
military equilibrium in South Asia," the expert said.
"There is no end to the measures and counter-measures, and that is exactly
the secret behind the profitability of the world superpower's military
production complexes," he added.
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