http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/03/international/middleeast/03syria.html?th
NEWS ANALYSIS Syria Under Pressure: Worse Trouble May Lie Ahead By HASSAN M. FATTAH Published: March 3, 2005 EIRUT, Lebanon, March 2 - After decades of controlling Lebanon's political and economic life, Syria is facing the prospect of political and economic tumult as its hold over Lebanon grows weaker. Under increasing pressure to withdraw its troops from Lebanon, the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad is showing signs of a siege mentality, many opposition figures say. On Wednesday, President Bush, in his bluntest terms yet, insisted that Syria leave Lebanon. In recent weeks, the Syrian government has cracked down on hard-won freedoms, censoring publications more heavily and increasing pressure on opposition figures. Last week, professors at some Syrian universities were given directives not to discuss subjects like Lebanon, the Kurdish minority or Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister who was assassinated in Beirut two weeks ago. And people in Damascus expect worse to come. Like his father before him, Mr. Assad has tried to deal with his problems by closing ranks within his government while scrambling to buy time. Last week, for example, he announced that Syria would pull out of Lebanon, and in an interview with Time magazine published Tuesday, he said he expected the job to be done in a matter of months. But so far, many Syrians say, Mr. Assad has proved less adept than his father at playing political cat-and-mouse. "We are in the corner now," said Youssef Marish, publisher of Al Mobky, a weekly review of culture whose most recent issue was blocked by Syrian censors for being too critical regarding current events. "The problem is that pressure will never stop, not even when we leave Lebanon." In an interview with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica published Monday, Mr. Assad said he thought that the United States might be preparing for military action against Syria. "Washington has imposed sanctions on us and isolated us in the past, but each time the circle hasn't closed around us," he said. "If, however, you ask me if I'm expecting an armed attack, well, I've seen it coming since the end of the war in Iraq." A Syrian official subsequently denied that Mr. Assad had made the comments. Mr. Bush, referring Wednesday to a joint news conference held Tuesday in London by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Foreign Minister Michel Barnier of France, said, "I applauded the press conference she held with the foreign minister from France, where both of them stood up and said loud and clear to Syria, you get your troops and your secret services out of Lebanon so that good democracy has a chance to flourish." The Damascus government's lose-lose choices are exemplified by conflicting reports over the weekend that Iraqi officials had credited Syria with help in handing over 30 members of Saddam Hussein's government, including Sabawi Ibrahim al-Hassan al-Tikriti, Mr. Hussein's half brother. Rather than seize the opportunity to appear to be cooperating with the Iraqi and American authorities, however, Syrian officials denied the reports, fearing that it would amount to an admission that Syria does in fact harbor Hussein loyalists. The Bush administration's contention that Syria has been aiding Iraq's insurgency is a primary source of cool relations between the nations. "The circulation of such false news is part of the pressure campaign launched by the United States," said Ahmad al-Haj Ali, an adviser to Syria's Ministry of Information. "They want to say that Syria had always been harboring insurgents but never admitted it. And they want to say that pressure should therefore be kept on Syria." Nonetheless, other Syrian officials emphasized that if Mr. Hassan had been seized in Syria, it could have happened only with the government's help. "If they found Sabawi Ibrahim in Syria, they found him through the efforts of Syrian intelligence," said Muhammad Habash, a member of Syria's Parliament. Lingering accusations that Syria was behind a terrorist suicide bombing in Tel Aviv late Friday night are proving even more damaging. Islamic Jihad took responsibility for the bombing, but six hours later, denied the initial claim, apparently under pressure from the government. That only served to highlight the weakening grip Syria has over political groups and militias that it has supported and that in the past would have worked in close cooperation with the government. Instead, say opposition figures, many now appear to be pursuing their own interests. "The problem is everything is being done against their will," Michel Kilo, a prominent Syrian opposition member, said of the government. "But politics as usual simply can't provide the diplomacy needed now." Yet even as the government in Damascus shows signs of strain, years of one-party rule have left no viable opposition capable of filling its shoes. For several years, Syria's leaders have looked to China as a model for survival, encouraging economic and judicial change in hopes of increasing economic growth, while avoiding political reform. But with the threat of more economic sanctions, that plan risks collapsing. The fundamental problem, said Mr. Kilo, the opposition member, is that the government will not seek change unless it gets something in return. "They are open to reform only if they get international assurances that at the end of the reform, the regime will survive," he said. But change, Mr. Kilo said, would ultimately mean the end of the government, and "they see that if they fix themselves, they will die." 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