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US struggles to place pressure on N Korea The US will have to face the reality that it may have to modify its current foreign policy strategy with North Korea in favor of the softer approach being pursued by South Korea, a stance that engages Pyongyang and seeks compromise on its many political and economic demands. By Erich Marquardt for PINR (23/03/05) On her recent whirlwind trip through Asia, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stressed the need to convince North Korea to return to the six-party talks on Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program. The talks - which comprise the US, Russia, China, Japan, South Korea and North Korea - have been through three rounds, all held in Beijing. North Korea walked out on the last round of talks on February 10, openly declaring that it has "manufactured nuclear weapons" and would "suspend participation in the six-party talks for an indefinite period". Pyongyang said that it would not return to the talks as long as a "hostile" US attitude continues, announcing that U.S. policy has caused the North to take "serious steps of boosting our nuclear arsenal and we are also prepared to mobilize all of our military force against any provocative moves by the enemy". The North prodded the US, calling its growing "nuclear deterrent" force a "treasured sword and shield for defending [the] peace of the country". The US, which opposes a nuclear-armed North Korea, is trying to have North Korea's neighbors pressure and coax the country to dismantle and abandon its nuclear weapons program. While North Korea's neighbors also have as one of their interests a nuclear-free Korean peninsula, not all of them prioritize this interest above others. This can be explained by understanding the diverging national interests between the US and North Korea's neighbors. US interests in North Korea It is not in Washington's interests to allow North Korea to develop nuclear weapons. As a result of this, the Bush administration's policy has aimed at convincing North Korea to dismantle and abandon its nuclear weapons program. However, the Bush administration has limited options at its disposal in securing this objective. For one, North Korea's large military makes it a power force to contend with in East Asia. Any serious conflict with North Korea would result in massive casualties by all parties involved in the fighting, especially for those on the Korean peninsula. North Korea has the fourth-largest army in the world, with an estimated 1.2 million armed personnel. The US State Department warns that "The North has perhaps the world's second-largest special operations force, designed for insertion behind the lines in wartime". Its military spending makes up about 25 per cent of its GNP. More importantly, the North's military capabilities exceed that of the South. Pyongyang can wield almost twice the amount of armed personnel than Seoul, and has more tanks, long-range artillery, and armored personnel carriers. While many of the North's weapons are outdated, it retains the potential to cause massive casualties to the South. Because of this, the United States has stationed troops in South Korea dating back to the 1950-1953 Korean War in order to repel a North Korean attack. The primary purpose of the troops has been to warn North Korea that any attack upon the South would bring the United States into the conflict; if this were to occur, according to the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Richard Myers, it "would be the end of their regime". Nevertheless, the size of the North's military and its alleged nuclear arsenal makes any conflict between Pyongyang and Washington especially concerning. US over engaged in Middle East The US is also heavily engaged in the Middle East, with over 140'000 troops working as a stabilizing force in Iraq. This commitment has made it difficult for the US to adequately intimidate North Korea. North Korea, and other parties involved, recognizes that Washington is preoccupied in Iraq and will not want to open a new military front. For instance, in South Korea's most recent government white paper, it announces that in the event of an attack by the North, the United States would commit 690'000 military personnel in addition to about 2'000 war planes. This would result in the commitment of 70 per cent of all US Marines, 50 per cent of the US Air Force, 40 per cent of the US Navy, and thousands of Army troops. These numbers amount to more than four times the current US presence in Iraq. With needs such as these, it becomes obvious to Washington policymakers that a military option is not a desirable one when dealing with North Korea, especially when the US military is in a state of overextension. Therefore, the US is attempting to use North Korea's neighbors to place pressure on Pyongyang. But the Bush administration is running into problems while pursuing this approach, too.The fact remains that North Korea's neighbors do not share the same interests or priorities as the US. While the US and Japan are in relative agreement over Washington's current policy towards North Korea, Russia has shown limited interest in Washington's demands due to its historical close ties with North Korea, its ongoing energy deals with the country, and its desire to limit Washington's involvement in Russian affairs. The other two members of the six-party talks, China and South Korea, have more complicated interests at stake. China Much is made in the press about China's concern over a nuclear-armed North Korea. The Bush administration and politicians in Washington have attempted to coax China to place pressure on North Korea to disarm. China, which is North Korea's only significant ally and helps to prop up the regime of leader Kim Jong-il, retains the ability to pressure North Korea by limiting its energy, economic, and humanitarian assistance. North Korea is largely dependent on China for its survival, especially for its energy needs. For this reason, the US is pushing China to assist US policy in pressuring Pyongyang to disarm. However, while China has as one of its interests a nuclear-free Korean peninsula, it also has other interests that take precedence. For instance, North Korea acts as a buffer between China and South Korea, which has been a strong US ally for decades. The US maintains a large military presence in South Korea, and the collapse of the North Korean state could result in the South usurping the North and the US extending its influence all the way to the Yalu River on China's southern borders, limiting China's foreign policy leverage and jeopardizing its ability to reassert its sovereignty over Taiwan. Potential humanitarian disaster Additionally, a collapse of North Korea would create a major humanitarian and economic disaster for China. Beijing already suffers from North Korean refugees clamoring over the border, and any collapse of the poorly functioning social system in North Korea will result in an undesirable exodus of refugees. It would also impel China to begin economic development in the collapsed state to ensure that the new government, or the unification of the North and the South, leaves China with significant influence. Further, a collapse of North Korea would impede the growing trade relations that China now enjoys with South Korea since Seoul would expend its wealth on rebuilding the North. Finally, if the US were to invade North Korea, as it did in Iraq, it would provide a worst case scenario for China. China would have to react in such an intervention, and both options - getting involved on the side of North Korea or refraining from participation in the conflict - hold negative ramifications for the Chinese state; the former would place China against the world's only superpower, and the latter would portray China as a weak state, making it more difficult to adequately prevent Taiwan from declaring independence, thereby eroding Beijing's ambitions of supplanting Washington's influence in East Asia. Supplanting US influence in East Asia Supplanting US influence in East Asia is a critical long-term policy goal of Beijing. In December of 2004, China released a white paper stating that the "trends toward world multipolarization and economic globalization are deepening amid twists and turns." The paper further argued that "new changes are occurring in the balance of power among the major international players, with the process of their realignment and the redistribution of their interests accelerated". China's recognition that US power in Asia may be on the wane has resulted in its warm policy towards South Korea, hoping to pull it closer to China and away from the US and Japan. It is actively promoting increased economic relations with many of Asia's states, best seen through its goal of eliminating trade barriers with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), creating the world's biggest free trade zone, spanning more than 2 billion people. The collapse of North Korea, or the initiation of a conflict involving that state, could derail these plans. China seeks to limit damage to N Korea The preceding factors explain why China is most interested in maintaining the current status quo in North Korea. As US and international analysts ponder why China is not doing more to pressure North Korea to end its nuclear weapons program, it is in China's interests to have negotiations over this program continue as long as possible. Take, for instance, repeated statements by Chinese leaders gratifying the six-party talks. China's ambassador to South Korea, Li Bin, told Yonhap News Agency that "China's basic stance is to maintain the framework of the six-party talks. All the participants need to respect the hard-won process". Li also noted that "South Korea's patience over its economic cooperation with North Korea will have some result in the end". These statements show that China does not want the US, and the international community, to reach a result on North Korea's nuclear weapons program that is too damaging to North Korea. Chinese officials continue to hype the importance of the six-party talks while saying very little on the lack of tangible results that have come out of these talks. As Chinese President Hu Jintao told Rice, China is "unwavering in its stance" of resolving concerns over North Korea's nuclear weapons program through the six-party talks. On 17 February, China's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Kong Quan argued that "just having talks is tremendous progress". In the words of Selig Harrison, the director of the Asia program at the Center for International Policy, speaking to the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission on 10 March 2005, "the most important [priority] in Chinese calculations is to forestall a war by keeping the United States engaged in six-party negotiations with North Korea of indefinite duration". South Korea Traditionally, South Korea has been a major US ally in Asia. The US fought on its behalf during the 1950-1953 Korean War. But with the fall of the Soviet Union, Seoul's improving ties with Beijing, and the isolation and weakening of North Korea, Seoul no longer considers Pyongyang the threat it once did. Additionally, the collapse of the Soviet Union has been followed by decreased US involvement in Asia, a trend that has accelerated due to Washington's resources pouring into Iraq. Because of this, Seoul must accommodate itself with other Asian powers in case the US further withdraws from East Asia. For instance, the Bush administration's decision to withdraw some of its troops from South Korea and redeploy them in Iraq demonstrated to the region, whether intentionally or unintentionally, that the US does not place the same emphasis on South Korea as it once did. As part of this plan, Washington will remove 7'500 of its 32'500 troops from the country and redeploy them. The bulk of the remaining forces will stay in the country but remain south of North Korea's immediate artillery range. The Bush administration has explained that this redeployment reflects Washington's goal of playing a stronger role in securing trade routes and protecting against terrorism in the region. To South Korea, however, this change of policy is enough to cause worry that the US may eventually withdraw from South Korea before its conflict with North Korea is resolved. Seoul takes softer line towards North Therefore, Seoul has taken a softer line towards North Korea, offering economic incentives and hoping to create the conditions for peaceful unification on the peninsula. The ongoing conflict with North Korea is Seoul's biggest security threat; once this threat is resolved, it will give Seoul more foreign policy leverage in the region. If the Koreas were to unify, a unified Korean state could become a powerful and influential force in Asia. At the same time that it is softening up North Korea, Seoul is building up its military power in order to secure against an invasion from the North should the US withdraw from South Korea. A credible military deterrent would also help its foreign policy leverage with other influential states in the region, mainly China and Japan. Seoul is also improving its relations with China, since diminishing US influence in East Asia would likely be supplanted by Chinese influence. The two countries formalized diplomatic relations in 1992 and in 2003 China became South Korea's largest trade partner, displacing the US. Of course, these factors do not mean that South Korea will sour its relations with the US. On the contrary, Seoul needs Washington to continue to provide security assistance in order to stave off any potential North Korean attack. And while Seoul recognizes China's growing power and is seeking to improve relations with Beijing, it does not want to be dominated by China; by aligning itself with the US, it secures its independence from its giant to the west. Nevertheless, South Korea has modified its foreign policy strategy and is in the process of ending its traditional dependence on the US. Facing unpleasant realities The Bush administration has faced difficulty in convincing North Korea to dismantle and abandon its nuclear weapons program because the ongoing intervention in Iraq has removed much of its military leverage, and North Korea's neighbors do not consider Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program to be an urgent enough concern to require excessive pressure on the weak state. In finding a way out of the impasse, the Bush administration has warned that it will not allow the six-party talks to continue indefinitely and that "other options" will be explored if tangible results are not achieved. Other than the use of military force, Washington's next option will be to bring the issue of North Korea's nuclear weapons program to the UN Security Council in an attempt to place international economic sanctions on the country. However, such a resolution could be vetoed by China and Russia, which oppose a Security Council resolution condemning North Korea. There are also multiparty sanctions that Washington could attempt to place on North Korea if it loses out in the Security Council. But it is unlikely that the two most critical states to North Korea's survival - China and South Korea - will comply, which would leave North Korea with its nuclear weapons and Washington without the necessary allies to force Pyongyang to disarm. These unpleasant realities for the US mean that it will face pressure to modify its current foreign policy strategy in favor of the softer approach being pursued by South Korea, a stance that engages Pyongyang and seeks compromise on its many political and economic demands. This article originally appeared in Power and Interest News Report, PINR, at (www.pinr.com). All comments should be directed to [EMAIL PROTECTED] ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> DonorsChoose. A simple way to provide underprivileged children resources often lacking in public schools. Fund a student project in NYC/NC today! http://us.click.yahoo.com/EHLuJD/.WnJAA/cUmLAA/TySplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? 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