http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?ID=10986
Lebanon's impasse As Lebanon enters the second week of talks on the formation of a national unity government, the political stand-off gripping the country since the assassination of former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri on 14 February does not appear to be progressing towards a swift solution. By Claudio Franco for ISN Security Watch in Beirut (22/03/05) Omar Karami, designated by Lebanon's Syrian-backed President Emile Lahoud to form a broad-based cabinet, has little hope of succeeding in steering the country out of the political impasse, as the political landscape remains traditionally divided along the religious lines that were at the root of Lebanon's decades-long civil war. The opposition, informally led by Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt and Bahia Hariri - Rafik al-Hariri's sister and the heir-apparent to his political legacy � have refused to join talks for the formation of a national unity government and have advanced proposals for a "neutral" cabinet to lead the country to the polls scheduled for May. As Karami's efforts to involve the opposition are floundering, talks between Hizbollah, Jumblatt's Druze party, and the Christian Qornet Shewan Gathering led by Samir Franjeh, have been going on behind the scenes for weeks. Karami's initiative losing fervor Karami's initiative appears to be losing fervor. The prime minister-designate is facing an unprecedented US-led diplomatic initiative to force Syria to withdraw from Lebanon. He also has to contend with Hizbollah's growing influence as it negotiates with sectors of the opposition, leading to the isolation of loyalists around President Lahoud, who has come under heavy criticism. If anything, the two camps have cautiously agreed to use the Taif Accord - the Arab-brokered peace deal named after the Saudi city were it was negotiated - as a common platform to implement the definitive withdrawal of Syrian forces and an eventual, if unscheduled, disarmament of Hizbollah. Until recently, the opposition's calls for the implementation of UN resolution 1559, which calls for the urgent withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon, had caused a deep fracture, as Hizbollah perceived the resolution as partial to Israel's interest and excessively focused on the militia's disarmament. State within a State Hizbollah, the Iranian and Syrian-backed Shi'ite group created in the early 1980's as a militia designed to counter Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon, has progressively assumed the features of an all-round political and military organization - a state within a state whose unique status is legitimated only by its influential allies in Tehran and Damascus and by Lebanon's long-standing political conundrum. Thanks to Syria's support, Hizbollah (The Party of God) was allowed to bypass the dissolution of Lebanon's militias agreed at Taif in 1989 and implemented by all factions in 1991. In the following decade, the Shi'ite militant group prospered, receiving substantial support from Iran via Syria and establishing itself as a bastion of Islamic resistance in the region. Hizbollah's low-intensity war, mainly consisting of hit-and-run operations in occupied Lebanon and operative and financial support to militant Islamic groups in Gaza and the West Bank, was a key factor in prompting Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000. As a result, Hizbollah still presents itself as the guardian of Lebanese territorial integrity against foreign interference. The group has been on the US State Department's list of terrorist organizations for years, and last week, the EU gave in to US pressure and urged member states to place Hizbollah on their own terrorist blacklists. Hizbollah stands to gain prominence With the Syrian withdrawal nearing completion, Hizbollah stands to gain prominence as a key factor in the ongoing political crisis, with the militia's disarmament bound to become the focus of Washington's diplomatic initiative in Lebanon. The Bush administration has made it clear that US recognition of the group as a part of the Lebanese political mainstream would be conditioned upon the complete disarmament of its militant wing. On the domestic front, however, the Lebanese opposition does not seem to be as unwavering in relation to Hizbollah's disarmament, and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt opened up to the Shi'ite militant group earlier last week, rebuffing Washington's interference on disarmament and praising Hizbollah's role in the liberation of southern Lebanon from Israeli occupation. Jumblatt's overture confirms that the intricacies of Lebanese politics often do not fit into the black and white logic of the US Department of State. And on Sunday, over 3'000 Hizbollah supporters visited Beirut's Martyrs Square to pray by al-Hariri's tomb for the first time since the former prime minister's assassination. Hizbollah's gesture The gesture confirmed Hizbollah's attempt to establish negotiations with Lebanese counterparts and Arab League mediation if necessary, but without Western interference. It must be noted that a characteristic trait of the Lebanese crisis has been a divergence of method more than of substance between Hizbollah and the opposition concerning the main issues on the negotiating table. As for a Syrian withdrawal, although Hizbollah remained detached from the opposition following al-Hariri's murder, its secretary-general, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, was always keen to stress his support for a full, but cautiously phased, pullout. At the same time, Nasrallah has been advocating lasting cooperation between the two neighbors and the need to express gratitude to Damascus for the protection given to Lebanon over the last 26 years. He was cautious never to join the loyalist or opposition camps and rejected a confrontation with the opposition and positioned Hizbollah as an indispensable interlocutor to both sides. `Desperate' for negotiations During a lengthy interview broadcast last Wednesday by Hizbollah's own al-Manar TV, Nasrallah clearly suggested the possibility of negotiations, stating that "all principles and issues can be discussed within a Lebanese dialog" with a clear reference to the disarmament issue. "The country is desperate for negotiations," he added, before suggesting provocatively that his party was open to alternative solutions to armed resistance if his interlocutors could plausibly guarantee southern Lebanon's security. Commentators in Lebanon have commended this alleged willingness to engage in dialog, and the essential role played by Hizbollah on the political stage has been widely acknowledged as a fact after 500'000 of its supporters rallied in central Beirut on 8 March, confirming the Party of God's political potential. As a result of the de facto integration of Hizbollah in to the political mainstream, the military role of the Shi'ite militant group in southern Lebanon emerged noticeably as a comparative advantage on the negotiating table. In other words, and pending Washington's approval, Nasrallah is already regarded as the focal point of Lebanese politics and calls for an immediate disarmament of Hizbollah's militia will likely be restricted to the US and the EU. The Party of God's 'secular' face Dr Hussein Hassan is one of 12 Hizbollah parliamentarians in Lebanon and a member of the party's directive council. Hassan represents the secular face of the movement, a generation of young leaders at ease dealing with international negotiators and media. According to Hassan, an essential issue to debate with the opposition is the normalization of Lebanese politics and an end to the confessional state. The latter, originally a by-product of the unwritten national pact dating back to 1943, consists of a power-sharing agreement conceived with the Lebanese Constitution (1932) and amended in 1989 by the Taif Accord. In recognition of a growing Muslim majority, the system was adjusted to fit the new demographic balance. The resulting electoral law divides the 128 legislative seats equally between Christians and Muslims, thus perpetuating the traditional division of institutional roles between Christians, Sunni Muslims, and Shi'ites, respectively entitled to name the president, prime minister, and National Assembly speaker. Today, Shi'ite Muslims constitute the fastest growing segment of the population and Hassan is unambiguous about the movement's position: "Hizbollah wants an end to the confessional state, and the issue for our interlocutors is not even on the table. We are working for democratic change, and I don't feel we are enjoying international support on the issue," a resolute Hassan told ISN Security Watch. The fragile regional balance If the time seems ripe for negotiations on the domestic front, in relation to the fragile regional balance, Hizbollah's leadership is adamant about the key-issues on the table and leaves little space for compromise if the international community is not ready to concede on the crucial issues of disarmament and the establishment of a Palestinian State. The Israeli occupation of the Shebaa Farms area does not seem to constitute a potential bargaining chip for Israel, Hassan said, suggesting that Hizbollah would not dismantle its military network in the case of an Israeli withdrawal. "If Israel withdrew from Shebaa Farms, it would do that in compliance with a UN resolution and international law - they are not making concessions," he told ISN Security Watch. The list of Hizbollah's requests to Israel and the international community include the right of return for Palestinian refugees in Lebanon and Israel's fulfillment of UN resolution 1514 on the Right to Self-Determination. "Israel should comply with international law and the international community must be there to guarantee compliance with UN resolutions and the security of Lebanon's southern border. This would be a step forward towards disarmament," he said. Protecting Israel >From Hizbollah's point of view, Hassan explains, the principal reason for the increased pressure on Syria to withdraw from Lebanon is the need to secure Israel against militant attacks from Hizbollah. To substantiate that interpretation, Hassan reiterated recent allegations by Nasrallah of a failed US attempt to convince Syria to disarm the Shi'ite militant group earlier this year. According to Hassan, if Damascus would have complied with the US request, it would have obtained unofficial US consent to extend its presence in Lebanon. "The plan to dislodge Syria from Lebanon was already in place after the Syrian refusal to disarm Hizbollah. Al-Hariri's assassination has just accelerated the pace of US-led efforts to secure Israel," Hassan said. Hizbollah's strategic advantage Significantly, Hassan categorically excluded the possibility of the long-term integration of the Shi'ite militia into the Lebanese Army, arguing that the move would deprive Hizbollah of its strategic advantage against the better-armed Israeli forces: "There is no substantial difference between disarming and being assimilated into the Lebanese Army. We would lose the very possibility to operate effectively," Hassan said, making it clear that what was perceived as a terrorist approach in Israel remained an essential part of Hizbollah strategy in the short term. Beirut at a standstill In the meantime, Beirut has been in a state of prolonged tension since Saturday's explosion in the Christian suburb of Jdaide. The attack left 11 injured and a landscape worryingly reminiscent of the civil war days. The population reacted to the explosion with a mix of resignation and anger towards the authorities, who appear powerless to guarantee security in the capital. The motive for the attack remains unclear but the opposition has repeatedly accused Syrian intelligence services of acting to destabilize the country in the immediate aftermath of their departure. Druze leader Jumblatt openly warned Syria against continuing intelligence operations in the country. However, many Beirut citizens and Lebanese analysts appear unconvinced that Damascus' military intelligence, the once feared Moukhabarat, or their Lebanese proxies would expose themselves so patently at a time of enhanced international attention on the region. Lebanese security jockeying for position As for Beirut's security services, however, the weekend appeared doomed from the start when Jamil Sayyed, head of the Suret� Generale, Lebanon's military intelligence service, announced his intentions to become a civil party to the investigation of al-Hariri's assassination. At a press conference on Friday, Sayyed declared he would refer himself and other top security officials to State Prosecutor Rabia Kaddoura, in order to probe the direct involvement of Lebanese and Syrian security services in al-Hariri's murder. Sayyed is regarded as a staunch ally of Syria, and last week's self-indictment is being widely viewed as an attempt to pre-empt imminent UN revelations of a substantial cover-up in the immediate aftermath of the explosion. Sayyed and his colleagues have been under heavy pressure in recent weeks, and the resignation of the country's top security officials is high on the opposition's list of conditions to join talks on a national unity government. In addition, with Syrian forces and intelligence services redeployed to the Bekaa Valley, closer to the Syrian border, Lebanon's own intelligence regime is possibly trying to negotiate its future from a favorable, if temporary, position. Security service officialshave, in fact, been the targets of a growing and diffused anger, and their political survival and present influential status are strictly linked to the protection guaranteed by the Syrian forces' permanence in the country. Hizbollah unlikely to give in to US pressure Hizbollah's firm stance on an Israeli threat to Lebanon's territorial integrity leaves little room for hope in terms of compliance with Washington's calls to disarm. At present, the prospect of a lasting solution to the Lebanese political impasse rests on the possibility of an improved dialogbetween Hizbollah and the opposition, as Jumblatt and Nasrallah have been keen to suggest. Nasrallah was cautious to position Hizbollah in the loyalist camp until Syria decided to maintain a substantial presence in the country - but things are expected to change in the coming weeks. The decision to suspend all Hizbollah-backed pro-Syrian demonstrations in order to facilitate dialogbetween Karami and the opposition confirmed Nasrallah's eagerness to position the party at the center of Lebanon's political spectrum � but detached enough from Syrian-backed President Lahoud so as not to be overthrown by his eventual removal from office. Without immediate Lebanese proxies, Hizbollah would stand as Syria's sole legitimate ally in the country. At the same time, the opposition would regard a moderate Party of God as an essential counterpart to include the Shi'ite community in the climate of change. The only factor likely to push Hizbollah back into the wilderness of Islamic militancy is foreign intervention, whether diplomatic or otherwise. But even from Washington's perspective, the risk of further destabilizing an extremely fragile regional set up in the Middle East could be too high a price to get rid of what is widely perceived by many in Lebanon as a viable militant Islamic movement. Claudio Franco is ISN Security Watch's correspondent in Lebanon. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> DonorsChoose. A simple way to provide underprivileged children resources often lacking in public schools. Fund a student project in NYC/NC today! http://us.click.yahoo.com/EHLuJD/.WnJAA/cUmLAA/TySplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. 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