http://www.ict.org.il/

March 25, 2005
The Double Game of Hizballah
Dr. Ely Karmon 

On March 10, the European Parliament finally branded Hizballah a
terrorist group, urged the EU Council to take action against the
organization and renewed a call for Syria to withdraw its troops and
intelligence services from Lebanon. 

Hizballah is an odd religious and political movement: it was born of
terrorism in the 1980s, developed guerrilla warfare capabilities in
the 1990s, and, by the beginning of the new millennium, had matured
into an important Middle East strategic player, capable of influencing
the course of peace and war in the region.
 
During the 1980s Hizballah killed hundreds of people in terrorist
attacks against Western targets: the bombings of the U.S. embassy in
Beirut in 1983 and 1984; the twin 1983 suicide attacks on U.S. and
French peace forces in Beirut. In a 1998 interview, Mustapha Tlass,
the ex-Syrian minister of Defense, boasted that he gave the green
light to the Islamic organizations to act against the American and
French forces in Lebanon. However, he said, facetiously, he did not
permit operations against the Italians because he was enamored of the
Italian film star, Gina Lolobrigida! 

Hizballah's activities were global in reach. In Europe, France and
Spain were its major targets. In 1985 - 1986 Hizballah was linked to
13 bombings in Paris against shopping centers, rail stations, and
trains, which killed 13 people and wounded more than 250. On April 12,
1985, 18 Spaniards were killed and 27 people injured in a Hizballah
bomb attack on the El Descanso restaurant, near the U.S. Air Force
base in Torrejon. 

Hizballah also attacked Arab states and their citizens - Saudi Arabia,
Kuwait, Bahrain - and American and French targets in these countries,
in cooperation by the way with militants of the Iraqi Dawa Party, the
same party that today could lead the new Iraqi government. 
Hizballah's participation in the 1992 Lebanese parliamentary
elections, and the Israeli unilateral withdrawal from southern Lebanon
in May 2000 led analysts to predict that Hizballah would transform
itself into a "normal" Lebanese political party. 
However, Hizballah continued to consider terrorism a strategic tool
and a religious duty, part of a "global jihad." It was behind the two
deadliest terrorist attacks in South America's history: 

the bombings of the Israeli embassy in March 1992 and the Jewish
community center (AMIA) in Buenos Aires in July 1994, killing 130
people; in 1996, it supported the Saudi Hizballah's bombing of the
Khobar Towers U.S. military complex in Saudi Arabia. In the 1990s,
Hizballah unsuccessfully attempted to attack U.S. and Israeli ships
docked in Singapore and the Israeli embassy in Bangkok, Thailand. 
Even Osama bin Laden cited Hizballah's 1983 suicide bombing of the
U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut as the first "American defeat" by
Islamist radicals. 

Since October 2000, Hizballah supported the Palestinian terrorist
campaign against Israel, in coordination with Syria and Iran, by
providing training, logistical and operational support. Hizballah also
put forth a significant effort toward establishing an independent
terrorist and intelligence infrastructure inside both the Palestinian
Authority and Israel. On the military front, the organization
continued its cross-border attacks against Israeli forces in the
Shebaa Farms area and expanded its arsenal of weaponry, acquiring
thousands of rockets and missiles capable of reaching a greater number
of Israeli targets. 

In the last year, Hizballah has been behind some 70% of the terrorist
attacks by radical Palestinians factions. Since the death of Yasser
Arafat in November 2004 and the new Palestinian leadership's attempts
to renew negotiations with Israel on the background of the decision on
unilateral withdrawal from Gaza, Hizballah has become a direct threat
to the peace and reform processes. According to Palestinian Authority
sources, Hizballah offered up to $100,000 to Fatah and Hamas activists
in the West Bank and Gaza Strip to carry out a suicide attack against
Israel. They also expressed fear that Hizballah and Iran were planning
to kill PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas in order to thwart attempts to
revive the peace process.
 
Iran's massive support for Hizballah has helped the organization to
maintain pressure on Israel's northern border and facilitate
assistance to the Palestinian Islamist organizations.
 
Nevertheless, Syria - not Iran - has been the most important source of
support for Hizballah's activity against Israel, by providing a
strategic umbrella, military and political coordination, and pressure
on Beirut to give the organization free rein in southern Lebanon. This
odd alliance between the secular Baathist regime of Syria, which
killed 20,000 Syrian Muslim Brothers in 1982, and the jihadist
Hizballah, transformed the latter into a strategic partner and
operational arm of the Syrian army in confrontation with Israel. 
Moreover, the balance of power between Damascus and Hizballah has
shifted noticeably during the young Bashar Asad's reign, with Hassan
Nasrallah assuming greater independence and demonstrating a certain
charismatic ascendancy. 

The massive Beirut pro-Syrian demonstration, a Hizballah operation,
included mainly Shiites bused from the slums of southern Beirut, but
also Syrians in buses which crossed the frontier between the two
countries. It offered a defiant challenge to the Lebanese opposition
forces that have insisted on Syrian withdrawal and exposed fault lines
of class and ideology. However, for the first time Hizballah was
cautious not to use its own yellow flags and armed militia on the
streets. 


It is on this background that one must understand Hizballah's support
for the continuation of the Syrian presence in Lebanon. Hizballah
leaders want to continue their double game as a legitimate Lebanese
party and a radical Islamist organization which strives to Islamize
the country, to destroy Israel, to expel all Western presence in the
Arab and Muslim world through armed struggle. 

The Syrian withdrawal would position Hizballah as the next target and
jeopardize its plans. 
Nonetheless, if the internal and international pressure continues, it
is reasonable to accept the view expressed by the Lebanese opposition
leader Jibran Tuweini, as cited by the New York Times: "This is a
goodbye party, not a show of support for Syria�If they wanted this to
be a challenge to us, they would have brought their party's yellow
flags. But Hezbollah doesn't want to burn its bridges with anyone
because ultimately they will have to return to the Lebanese people
once everything is over." 

The huge March 13 Beirut counter-demonstration in Martyrs Square by
the Lebanese opposition gathered according to some estimates more than
one million Christians, Sunnis and Druzes and represents a dramatic
and potent challenge to Syria, the pro-Syrian Lebanese government and
its Hizballah ally. 









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