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London blasts highlight new Euro-jihadi threat
By Shaun Waterman
UPI Homeland and National Security Editor

WASHINGTON, July 7 (UPI) -- The bomb attacks in London thought to be the
work of extremists linked to al-Qaida have focused attention on what
counter-terrorism officials on both sides of the Atlantic say is a new,
potentially more dangerous form of Islamic violence.

"Since Sept 11 and our very aggressive counter-terrorism activities the
al-Qaida organization that we knew really has changed fundamentally," a
senior U.S. intelligence official told reporters in a conference call
Thursday evening.

He added that "We don't know who was responsible for the attacks," but
that their "methodology is consistent with what we know that al-Qaida
has planned for in the past."

Four bombs -- three on trains and one on a bus -- exploded during rush
hour in the British capital Thursday, killing at least 37 people and
injuring 700 more. 

The official echoed the analysis provided by many counter-terrorism
specialists over the past year or more: Al-Qaida has metastasized into a
much more amorphous, and therefore elusive, kind of group. 

"From being a relatively hierarchical organization with much of the
activity and operational planning ... taking place from the top, it has
become a much more horizontal phenomenon with regional nodes, affiliates
(and) associates," said the official, who demanded anonymity, even
though he was briefing in a conference call organized by the public
affairs office of the director of national intelligence.

At a recent law enforcement conference in Florence, Italy, European
officials said the gravest threat they faced was from a new generation
of Islamic extremists, organized in loose networks rather than
conventional cells, and often with no history of affiliation with
al-Qaida or other established terror groups.

Balthazar Garzon, the Spanish investigating magistrate who heads that
country's effort to prosecute Islamic terrorists, told the conference
that those who carried out the Madrid railway bombings in March 2004
were largely such neophytes.

The bombings, he said, were carried out by "a whole network based on
personal contact, where a single person was a kind of catalyst."

It remains to be seen whether the London bombings were carried out by a
similar "second generation" network, but British counter-terrorism
officials have told United Press International in the past that they,
too, were concerned about what Garzon called "spontaneously generated"
terror cells among the grownup children of Muslim immigrants recruited
to the extremist cause in jails or over the Internet.

Rather than being organized in discrete cells, Garzon said, these
second-generation jihadis tended to form loose constellations defined by
"the system of personal relationships among the members."

Rather than a hierarchy, they were "individuals who make up a sort of
galaxy."

Most importantly from the point of view of intelligence operatives
seeking to track these militants and disrupt their plans, Garzon said
that for these networks, "Al-Qaida is an ideological reference point,
not a real articulated structure with a command chain."

Because of this autonomy, officials say, it is harder to interdict their
plans. 

"What we're looking at now," said the senior U.S. intelligence official,
"are these different cells that might be operating in Europe or other
places and their association with al-Qaida central, and what type of
autonomy and independence they have as far as carrying out attacks at
their discretion."

This decentralization makes it harder to identify key individuals in
time to disrupt preparations for attacks. In Madrid, for instance,
investigators said they were aware of some of those involved in planning
the attacks, but had no idea that they were "operationally active."

Autonomy also means the new groups can act with greater speed.

"We saw what happened in Madrid," said the U.S. official, "A local cell
was able to move forward with an attack in a relatively short time frame
-- within the space of two months." 

Worse yet, because these neophytes often have no history of connection
to extremist groups, intelligence and law-enforcement agencies can
remain unaware of their existence.

"They are unknown people," said one senior European law-enforcement
official at the Florence conference, who asked for anonymity because of
his involvement in prosecuting such groups.

The final deadly ingredient in this new cocktail is the opportunity that
the Iraq insurgency presents for young radicals to learn the skills
needed to build the kind of bombs that exploded with such deadly effect
in London.

Officials from several European countries said they recently discovered
networks of Islamic extremists recruiting and making travel arrangements
for such volunteers who want to go to fight the U.S. military in Iraq.

Only a handful of the foreign insurgents killed or captured so far by
the U.S.-led forces in Iraq have been Europeans. But as Cofer Black, who
until recently was the State Department's counter-terrorism coordinator,
told the conference, "Not many have to get past you when they are
trained so well" before there is a real problem.

The U.S. official said there was no specific intelligence about an Iraq
link to the London blasts at this stage, but "we know that (insurgent
leader Abu Musab) Zarqawi has in fact pursued efforts to expand his
reach outside of Iraq and the Iraqi theatre to the European homeland.

"We're looking at that," he said.

Evidence of an Iraq link may have huge political repercussions in
Britain, where opposition to the war continues to grow. But it will also
be a realization of the worst fears of some counter-terror specialists
-- that Iraq is creating a new generation of terrorist, with the skills
and experience to survive.

Those that survive their apprenticeship in the insurgency will be used
to "being hunted in a much more aggressive fashion than by law
enforcement," Roger Cressey, White House deputy counter-terrorism
coordinator during President Bush's first term, told UPI.

They will have acquired skills "in terms of operational security,
counter-surveillance, communication and overall tradecraft that are
going to make it very difficult to track them and take them down." 

He said the creation of a new cadre of hardened Islamic terrorists was
"one of the biggest unintended consequences of the war in Iraq."

"The administration had no appreciation of the danger of creating a new
cadre of jihadis," Cressey said.

Nor are those consequences going to be limited to Europe, he pointed
out. As citizens of European nations, these second-generation radicals
can easily travel to the United States without a visa.


Copyright (c) 2001-2005 United Press International



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