http://www.forbes.com/business/2005/08/23/jihad-mi5-counterterrorism-cx_0823 _oxan_newterrorism.html Jihadists Endorse Al Qaeda Global Aims Oxford Analytica, 08.23.05, 6:00 AM ET
The July 7 attacks in London were perpetrated mainly by UK Muslims. This development confirmed the continuing post-Afghanistan atomization of the global jihadist movement. The question now is whether it is also likely to reinforce its durability. Since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, the global Islamic terrorist network has been forced to transform into something far less centralized than its pre-September 11 incarnation. Radically inclined Muslims worldwide appear to be inspired by al Qaeda's resilience and galvanized by Western enterprises undertaken in the name of counterterrorism. It now appears that the terrorist network has permeated European cities and drawn recruits from within them. UK authorities anticipated this phenomenon and established the need to ramp up counterterrorism efforts to thwart it. Shortly after the Madrid bombings in March 2004, the United Kingdom's counterterrorism services undertook a detailed examination of the security risks posed by the country's Muslim population. What emerged was "Operation Contest:" MI5--the UK domestic intelligence service--would lead an interagency effort to win the trust of the Muslim community while also intensifying counterterrorism enforcement measures. At the same time, it seems manifest that recent high-profile jihadist terrorist attacks are not merely uncontrolled or undirected expressions of anger. Since the intervention in Iraq began in March 2003, jihadist attacks have followed a rough but discernible pattern: -- Before Iraq, a movement humbled and discouraged in Afghanistan defaulted to soft targets of convenience, such as Indonesia and East Africa. -- Iraq refocused and energized the global jihad, which initially zoned in on Iraq itself, then concentrated on important U.S. allies and partners. What makes Muslims who have not yet lapsed into violence susceptible to terrorist recruitment is complex and controversial, but there is a crude consensus on some of the factors: -- Iraq is an obvious irritant, and perhaps the greatest single source of Muslim wrath. -- The daily toll of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on Palestinian Muslims, and U.S. support for Israel, angers Muslims worldwide. -- Relative economic deprivation, though not a clear cause in the Middle East/Gulf region, is more influential in Europe. -- More broadly, the political and social marginalization of Muslims in Europe seems a salient factor. The United States remains al Qaeda's prime enemy and prize target. Current target selection (Europe and non-U.S. sites) and terrorism methodology (conventional explosives rather than weapons of mass destruction) thus appear to be dictated mainly by capability rather than optimal choice. Al Qaeda itself must rely increasingly on local groups that the leadership ideologically inspires rather than operationally controls. At present, such groups are more likely to coalesce in Europe, where there are more Muslims and a more energized radicalization movement than in the U.S. The global jihadist terrorist network has responded to the enhanced counterterrorism efforts of the U.K., Europe and the U.S. after September 11 and the Madrid attacks by enlisting recruits locally. This phenomenon places a premium on national and local policies, which need to be customized to deal with particular Muslim communities of differing compositions and characteristics. To <http://www.oxan.com/oxweb/logon.aspx?ReturnURL=%2Fdisplay%2Easpx%3FItemID%3 DDB120270> read an extended version of this article log on to Oxford Analytica's Web site. Oxford Analytica is an independent strategic consulting firm drawing on a network of more than 1,000 scholar experts at Oxford and other leading universities and research institutions around the world. For more information please visit www.oxan.com <http://www.oxan.com/> , and to find out how to subscribe to the firm's Daily Brief Service, click here. <http://www.oxan.com/partners/forbes/landing.asp> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> <font face=arial size=-1><a href="http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=12h8ahn9c/M=362329.6886306.7839369.3040540/D=groups/S=1705323667:TM/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1124810826/A=2894321/R=0/SIG=11dvsfulr/*http://youthnoise.com/page.php?page_id=1992 ">Fair play? Video games influencing politics. Click and talk back!</a>.</font> --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? 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