http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8583656
Turkmenistan's new father Jan 24th 2007 From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov (phew) takes over Ahead of Turkmenistan's presidential election, the successor to Saparmurad Niyazov---the so-called Father of the Turkmens---has emerged: Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, the former health minister. He is unlikely to introduce political liberalisation, but some change on the economic front---most probably in the form of more foreign investment in the oil and gas sectors---seems likely given problems with the Turkmen economy and the government's ability to subsidise basic services. Turkmenistan will hold a presidential election on February 11th, following the death from a heart attack of Saparmurad Niyazov on December 21st 2006. Mr Niyazov occupied virtually all the high-level offices of state, and had gradually emasculated the government and legislature over the years, subsuming all power to the presidency. His idiosyncratic and often bizarre rule---symbolised by a revolving gold statue of himself, grandiose marble-clad public buildings and an all-pervasive personality cult---was periodically a subject for mockery in the Western press. Less amusing was the damage Mr Niyazov wrought on the country's education and health systems, as well as his regime's catalogue of human rights abuses. The immediate question of who should succeed Mr Niyazov appears to have been solved. Under Turkmenistan's constitution, the chairman of parliament should have assumed the role of acting president until a fresh election could be held. However, within hours of Mr Niyazov's death the prosecutor's office launched criminal proceedings against the incumbent speaker, Ovezgeldy Atayev, thereby rendering him ineligible for the role. Shortly afterwards a special commission headed by Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, a deputy prime minister and minister of healthcare and the pharmaceutical industry, was established to oversee the arrangements for Mr Niyazov's December 24th funeral. Mr Berdymukhammedov was also appointed acting president and supreme commander of the armed forces. A dentist by profession, the 49 year old Mr Berdymukhammedov is one of Turkmenistan's longer-serving government members, having been health minister since 2001. In late December the Khalk Maslakhaty, Turkmenistan's supreme representative body, made changes to the constitution that enabled him to become acting president and to pave the way for his to contest the presidential election. Previously, an acting president was ineligible to stand for election and the minimum age for any candidate was 50. The predetermined election Alongside Mr Berdymukhammedov, six other candidates have been approved for the presidential contest, including one minister and senior figures in the country's regional and city administrations. However, several senior officials---including the head of the Central Election Commission---have openly backed Mr Berdymukhammedov and the state media have proclaimed their support. Tellingly, he was the only one of the six candidates to receive unanimous approval in the Khalk Maslakhaty. The speed with which Mr Berdymukhammedov was installed as acting president suggests that, crucially, he has the backing of the security services and the influential head of the presidential guard, Akmurad Rejepov. No challenge from beyond the elite will be allowed. Within days of Mr Niyazov's death the security services arrested one of the few remaining opposition figures in Turkmenistan, Nurberdy Nurmammedov. He had been nominated by the United Democratic Opposition (UDO)---a grouping of former regime members now in exile---as its presidential candidate. In addition, the authorities acted swiftly to prevent any members of the exiled opposition from returning to Turkmenistan, by closing the border with Uzbekistan and restricting the issuance of visas by Turkmen embassies abroad. Winds of change There are considerable doubts as to whether Turkmenistan's present economic system can be maintained. There are severe problems in the agricultural sector: the cotton harvest failed for the fifth straight year in 2006, and widespread shortages of flour and bread have resulted in large price rises for these goods and forced the authorities to introduce rationing. In the hydrocarbons sector, natural gas output is stagnating, and oil production is likely to have fallen sharply in 2006. Failure to improve these trends will make it hard for Turkmenistan to generate enough export revenue to ensure the continued free provision of services such as electricity and fuel, as well as an extensive array of price controls and subsidies. One year ago the authorities have already curtailed pension entitlements; the social contract could break down further should Turkmenistan's economic situation not improve. As a result, although he may not openly repudiate Mr Niyazov's rule, Mr Berdymukhammedov may be forced to consider making a significant shift in economic course. He has made a number of statements pointing to the growing economic and social problems facing the country, including an oblique reference to the curtailment of pension allowances. Gas chance? One possible scenario would be for the new president to take Turkmenistan some way along the path followed by Kazakhstan, and make the country more welcoming to foreign investment. Turkmenistan has what are believed to be among the largest reserves of natural gas in the world. BP's conservative official estimate is 2.9trn cubic metres, but the Turkmen authorities claim the true figure is up to 20trn cu metres. Even if reserves are only half this level, Turkmenistan would rank above major gas producers such as Algeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Nigeria. In recent years, Turkmenistan's gas output has been around 63bn cu metres per year, the majority of which is exported to Russia and Ukraine. The sanctity of long-term deals was always open to question, as Mr Niyazov tended to renege on agreements once a more lucrative offer was on the table. If the gas sector is to be opened up, Russian capital could face serious competition from Western and Chinese companies, as well as Indian. This in turn would open the question of export routes---whether to the West via the Caspian Sea (from where Turkmen gas could conceivably utilise existing pipelines) or to the East to China (perhaps via Kazakhstan, which is due to complete a pipeline to China around 2009). Any redirection of Turkmenistan's gas exports could have potentially severe repercussions; for it would deprive Russian monopoly Gazprom of sizeable volumes of gas that it is counting on to meet its domestic supply and export commitments. Liberalisation's limits Any opening to foreign investment under Mr Berdymukhammedov is unlikely to be accompanied by significant political liberalisation. Most restrictions on civil society or the media will probably remain in place, particularly given the precarious state of the economy. Turkmenistan's new ruler will instead focus on cementing his position as the natural successor to Mr Niyazov. In doing so, he will need to maintain the support of the political elite. This will necessitate the continuation of the patronage network, whereby political loyalty is rewarded with substantial economic benefits. Like Mr Niyazov, he will need to balance rival interests, through regular personnel reshuffles, ensuring that no one faction gains the upper hand. In contrast to Mr Niyazov, he will probably have to do this initially in straitened economic circumstances, and over time with less direct control over the economy. +++ -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. 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