http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24078316-2703,00.html
 

Rebels could win Pakistan's nuke haven


A CRISIS meeting of Pakistan's new coalition Government has been warned that
it could lose control of the North West Frontier Province, which is believed
to hold most of its nuclear arsenal.

The warning came yesterday from the coalition leader, who, although he is
part of the new Government, is regarded as having the closest links to
al-Qa'ida and Taliban militants sweeping through the region. 

Maulana Fazlur Rehman bluntly told his colleagues: "The North West Frontier
province is breaking away from Pakistan. That is what is happening. That is
the reality." 

This came just days before new Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani's scheduled
meeting with US President George W. Bush to discuss al-Qa'ida and Taliban
sanctuaries in Pakistan. 

Reports last night said Maulana Fazlur Rehman, regarded as having
unparalleled insight into the mood of the three million tribesmen in the
NWFP, and leader of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, was backed in his assessment
by members of the coalition Government from the Awami National Party, which
rules in the province's capital, Peshawar. 

They, too, told the meeting of jihadi militant advances throughout the
province, with their influence extending to most so-called "settled areas",
including Peshawar. 

Yesterday, the army was reported to have abruptly ended an operation in the
Hangu district, close to Peshawar, after threats by militant leaders. 

Maulana Fazlur Rehman and the ANP members blamed the worsening situation on
"President (Pervez) Musharraf's eight-year policy to deal with the issue
through the barrel of a gun, and the alliance with America". 

The crisis meeting resolved to pursue dialogue with the jihadis, a policy
derided by US and NATO-led forces in Afghanistan. 

It also declared itself to be implacably opposed to US or other forces
entering Pakistani territory to deal with the growing jihadi militancy. 

Analysts in Islamabad believe the warning about the situation in the NWFP
will prompt renewed concern about the security of Pakistan's nuclear
arsenal. 

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, speaking in Australia, suggested the
restive border region was the source of a surge in Taliban-related violence
in Afghanistan, and said Pakistan needed to do more to prevent attacks. 

"We understand that it's difficult, we understand that the North West
Frontier area is difficult, but militants cannot be allowed to organise
there and to plan there and to engage across the border," Dr Rice said. 

"So, yes, more needs to be done." 

Al-Qa'ida's operational commander in Afghanistan, a 53-year-old Egyptian
named Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, was interviewed on Pakistani television
yesterday and claimed the organisation's strength in Afghanistan was growing
so rapidly it would "soon occupy the whole country". 

He claimed that "the morale of our fighters in Afghanistan is very high and
they are putting up a tough fight against US troops". 

He also claimed responsibility in the interview for a terrorist attack on
the Danish embassy in Islamabad. 

The fact of the interview, as much as what he said, is seen as indicating an
important new stage in the crisis. 

"The bad guys are even popping up and giving television interviews: that's a
reflection of what's happening," one foreign diplomat in Islamabad said last
night. 

A leading think tank warned this week about the Taliban's use of a media
strategy to exaggerate their strength and undermine confidence in the
Afghanistan Government. 

The International Crisis Group says the administration and its backers must
counter this propaganda if they are to defeat an insurgency "that is driving
a dangerous wedge between them and the Afghan people", in a report entitled
Taliban Propaganda: Winning the War of Words? 

The Taliban now publicise their messages, warnings and claims of battle
successes through a website, magazines, DVDs, cassettes, pamphlets,
nationalist songs, poems and mobile telephones. 

Audacious tactics such as the Kandahar jailbreak last month and the April
assassination attempt on President Hamid Karzai show that the intent is to
grab attention. 

"The result is weakening public support for nation building, even though few
actively support the Taliban," the report says. 

It says the international community should also examine its own actions,
adding the benefits of military action are outweighed by the alienation they
cause. 

"The Taliban is not going to be defeated militarily and is impervious to
outside criticism," the ICG says. 

"Rather, the legitimacy of its ideas and actions must be challenged more
forcefully by theAfghan government and citizens." 

Additional reporting: AFP, AP

 



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