http://www.geostrategy-direct.com/geostrategy-direct/secure/2010/10_06/me.as p
Iran, Syria seen delegating war with Israel to proxies Hizbullah, Hamas WASHINGTON - Iran and Syria could decide to keep out of any Hizbullah war with Israel. Leading U.S. analysts said Iran and Syria were equipping Hamas and Hizbullah for another war with Israel. But they said Damascus and Teheran might be planning to stay out of combat while supplying communications and intelligence to Hizbullah. "Syria and Iran are both prepared for war, though it is unclear whether they will provide Hizbullah with more than communications, command, control, and intelligence assistance," Jeffrey White, a former U.S. military intelligence analyst, said. "If Hizbullah appears to be losing, Syria and Iran may feel pressure to assist the group in order to keep it in the fight." In an address on Sept. 17, White told the Washington Institute that Hizbullah has been preparing for an imminent war with Israel. He said Hizbullah has built its missile and rocket forces as well as air defense network. "In a new war, the group would likely conduct heavy and sustained rocket and missile attacks on both military and civilian targets in northern and central Israel, attacks that will have implications for how Israel fights the war, especially regarding offensive operations deep in Lebanon," White said. "Hizbullah has also organized its forces to defend southern Lebanon - its political base and primary rocket launching area - and to prevent the Israel Defense Forces from pushing deep into Lebanon," White said. "In doing so, it has emphasized the importance of fighting in urban areas and villages. Hizbullah will not easily cede ground in southern Lebanon and will likely try to make a stand there." Still, Syria could decide to enter the war with nonconventional weapons to prevent a Hizbullah defeat. White said Israel could punch through Lebanon and capture parts of Syria in any future war. "In a conflict, Israel's strategy will be essentially offensive, with its ground forces likely crossing the Litani River and driving into the Bekaa Valley, its air force conducting offensive operations over Lebanon and probably Syria, and its navy operating aggressively off the coast of Lebanon," White said. "And while the Israeli military will take measures to reduce civilian losses, Hizbullah's defensive concept and the nature of the fighting will result in civilian casualties among the Lebanese population." Andrew Exum, a former U.S. Army officer in Afghanistan and Iraq, said Israel would not crush Hizbullah in any conflict. Exum said Israel failed in previous campaigns in 1993, 1996 and 2006 because "it misunderstood the nature of Hizbullah's political and military strength." "Israel is unlikely to break Hizbullah as a military actor in Lebanon or weaken it politically," Exum said. "If war does occur, Israel should show restraint and pursue achievable objectives. This may mean a smaller, shorter war to degrade, rather than wipe out, Hizbullah's military capabilities. A large war would not be good for Israel, Lebanon, or the United States - but that may indeed be where the region is headed." http://www.geostrategy-direct.com/geostrategy-direct/secure/2010/10_06/image s/rule.jpg [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [email protected]. -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [email protected] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [email protected] Unsubscribe: [email protected] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. 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