http://www.geostrategy-direct.com/geostrategy-direct/secure/2010/10_06/me.as p
U.S. tracking Egypt's political class for Mubarak's eventual successor WASHINGTON - The successor to the ailing President Hosni Mubarak could come from Egypt's political establishment. The State Department has been monitoring a range of politicians for the prospect that one of them could become the next president of Egypt. The department was said to be following both members of the ruling National Democratic Party as well as the secular opposition. "One fact is clear: the new amendments ensure a limited pool of candidates and create an almost insurmountable obstacle for independents," Scott Carpenter, a former U.S. official and leading analyst on the Middle East, said. Carpenter said the Mubarak regime would fight against the rise of any independent or Muslim candidates. He cited Mohammed El Baradei, Ayman Al Nour or those from the Muslim Brotherhood. Instead, the key politicians regarded as having a prospect for succession included Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif and National Democratic Party secretary-general Sawfat Sharif. Opposition candidates could include Wafd Party chief El Sayed El Badawi and Tagamua Party chairman Rifat Said. Under the current system, independent candidates have little chance of running for president. Candidates must gather 250 signatures from members of parliament or municipalities, both dominated by NDP. The State Department was also said to have been tracking leading members of the Egyptian military, believed to be working against Mubarak's 46-year-old son, Gamal. The Egyptians were said to include Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, Civil Aviation Minister Ahmed Shafiq, a former Air Force commander, and Defense Minister Hussein Tantawi. During a recent forum at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, former senior U.S. diplomats conducted a discussion on the Egyptian succession. The former diplomats, who would not be identified, played down the prospect that El Baradei would be nominated as a candidate in any presidential election in late 2011. "Although the identity of Mubarak's successor is uncertain, the next president in Cairo will likely appreciate Egypt's relationship with the United States, have had some contact with U.S. diplomats, and be insecure in his new role at first," the institute, in a review of the discussion, said. "This will create both opportunities and risks for the United States." The former diplomats warned that any successor to Mubarak would seek to garner popularity by playing down any relationship with the United States and adopting populist Muslim causes. They said this attitude would require "deft U.S. diplomacy" to maintain Washington's strategic relations with Cairo. "When Egypt was strong, its powers of persuasion helped Washington articulate and promote policies advancing the causes of regional moderation and peace with Israel," David Schenker, a former Defense Department official and researcher at the Washington Institute, said. "Now that Egypt can no longer play this role, it will be harder for the U.S. to accomplish many of its policy goals in the Middle East." [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [email protected]. -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [email protected] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [email protected] Unsubscribe: [email protected] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. OSINT, as a part of The Intelligence Network, is making it available without profit to OSINT YahooGroups members who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information in their efforts to advance the understanding of intelligence and law enforcement organizations, their activities, methods, techniques, human rights, civil liberties, social justice and other intelligence related issues, for non-profit research and educational purposes only. We believe that this constitutes a 'fair use' of the copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Law. If you wish to use this copyrighted material for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use,' you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtmlYahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/osint/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/osint/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: [email protected] [email protected] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [email protected] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
