http://www.geostrategy-direct.com/geostrategy-direct/secure/2011/02_23/ne.as p
N. Korean nukes for 'deterrence, ... prestige, and coercive diplomacy' The director of national intelligence, James Clapper, last week disclosed new information about the threat posed by North Korea's nuclear and missile programs. Clapper, appearing before the House Intelligence Committee, stated that the nuclear and missile programs "pose a serious threat" to security in East Asia and some of the world's largest economies. http://www.geostrategy-direct.com/geostrategy-direct/images/2011/nkmissilech art.jpg "North Korea's export of ballistic missiles and associated materials to several countries, including Iran and Syria, and its assistance to Syria in the construction of a nuclear reactor, destroyed in 2007, illustrate the reach of the North's proliferation activities," Clapper said. Clapper said U.S. spy agencies are watching any new export of nuclear technology by the regime of Kim Jong-Il. On North Korea's nuclear tests, Clapper also disclosed that North Korea's second underground test blast detected in May 2009 was a probable "nuclear explosion," highlighting shortcomings in U.S. intelligence monitoring of foreign nuclear programs. U.S. intelligence agencies have made foreign nuclear programs one of the highest intelligence collection priorities and have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on it over the past decades, yet remains unable to confirm North Korea's test. The new details of the testimony included an assessment of North Korea's uranium enrichment program that was disclosed to three visiting Americans in November as a light water reactor for electricity production. "The claimed prototype LWR has a planned power of 100 megawatt-thermal and a target completion date of 2012," Clapper said. North Korean officials also told the U.S. visitors in November that it had constructed and started operating a uranium enrichment facility at Yongbyon that they claimed was designed to produce low-enriched uranium (LEU) and support fabrication of reactor fuel for the LWR. "The North's disclosure supports the United States' longstanding assessment that the DPRK has pursued a uranium-enrichment capability," Clapper said. "We judge it is not possible the DPRK could have constructed the Yongbyon enrichment facility and begun its operation, as North Korean officials claim, in such a short period of time --less than 20 months -- without having previously conducted extensive research, development, testing, fabrication, and assembly or without receiving outside assistance." The uranium program proves the on-again, off-again North Korean claims to have had a uranium enrichment program in addition to its known plutonium program. Clapper also noted that North Korea's recent test of a long-range Taepodong-2 missile, although a technical failure, "successfully tested many technologies associated with an ICBM." "Although both TD-2 launches ended in failure, the 2009 flight demonstrated a more complete performance than the July 2006 launch," he said. North Korea's progress in developing the TD-2 shows its determination to achieve long-range ballistic missile and space launch capabilities. If configured as an ICBM, the TD-2 could reach at least portions of the United States; the TD-2 or associated technologies also could be exported. Clapper noted that shortcomings in North Korea's conventional military forces, among the largest in the world in terms of numbers, have prompted Pyongyang to focus on deterrence and defense. "The Intelligence Community assesses Pyongyang views its nuclear capabilities as intended for deterrence, international prestige, and coercive diplomacy," Clapper said, adding that "we judge that North Korea would consider using nuclear weapons only under certain narrow circumstances. We also assess, albeit with low confidence, Pyongyang probably would not attempt to use nuclear weapons against U.S. forces or territory unless it perceived its regime to be on the verge of military defeat and risked an irretrievable loss of control." Clapper said North Korea's conventional forces have "eroded significantly" in the past 10 to 15 years due to persistent food shortages, poor economic conditions, inability to replace aging weapons inventories, reduced training, and increased diversion of the military to infrastructure support. "Nevertheless, the Korean People's Army remains a large and formidable force capable of defending the North," Clapper said. "Also, as demonstrated by North Korean attacks on the South Korean ship Cheonan in March 2010 and Yeongpyong Island in November, North Korea is capable of conducting military operations that could potentially threaten regional stability. These operations provide Pyongyang with what the regime may see as a means to attain political goals through coercion." [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [email protected]. -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [email protected] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [email protected] Unsubscribe: [email protected] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. 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