adopts guerrilla tactics to defy air strikes
In Ajdabiya, Kim Sengupta sees Gaddafi troops abandon tanks and form small
ambush groups to wrongfoot rebels and coalition
Friday, 1 April 2011
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/regime-adopts-guerrilla-tacti
cs-to-defy-air-strikes-2258908.html

The ambush was well co-ordinated and precise, rockets and mortar fire
erupting out of the sand dunes on to the rebel convoy, destroying the main
target, a truck carrying a multiple rocket launcher, and setting three other
vehicles on fire. Muammar Gaddafi's soldiers had disappeared by the time
Western warplanes appeared in the sky. Half a dozen charred bodies lay
beside the smouldering wreckage.

Guerrilla warfare has come to Libya, not being waged, as may have been
expected, by the revolutionary cadres, but by the regime, which is adapting
its strategies in answer to air strikes by the international coalition.
Small units have begun to traverse through the desert, far more difficult to
hit than the ponderous tanks and artillery decimated in the previous 11
days.

The attack, on the road to Brega from Ajdabiya, appeared to have the desired
effect. A cautious probe forward stalled amid fear of being outflanked. The
rebels, the Shabaab, whose standard practice had been to charge forward on
the main road west then get beaten back, were at a loss as to what to do
next.

The small numbers of US and British intelligence officials and special
forces believed to be in Libya may have to be augmented and their roles
extended if a potent insurgency does spread through the country. Air
superiority in such conflicts, as Iraq and Afghanistan had shown, would be
of limited use.

The SAS has been involved in training Libyan forces before the revolution,
after an agreement in 2009. Courses were conducted in counter-terrorism and
surveillance at a time when Tripoli was viewed as an ally against violent
Islamist militancy. Relations between the regime and the West had thawed
after Gaddafi dismantled his WMD programme and extradited two suspects for
trial over the Lockerbie bombing.

The only overt evidence of UK undercover forces on the ground so far came
with the embarrassing arrests of troopers of the SBS who had escorted
diplomats to Benghazi. Since then, British and American operatives have been
calling down air strikes, trying to spot the regime's surface-to-air
missiles, and liaising with officials of the provisional government in
Benghazi. They are also said to be collecting information on the Islamist
elements within the Shabaab and leaders such as Abdul Hakim Al-Hasidi, the
head of the militia in the city of Darnah, who had spent five years in
Afghanistan where he allegedly met Osama bin Laden.

Barack Obama had signed authorisation for the CIA to provide arms and other
support to the rebels although the issue of supplying arms is said to be
causing heated debate within the US administration. Jay Carney, the White
House press spokesman, has declined to comment "on intelligence matters".

The rebel lack of counter-insurgency skills was apparent again yesterday
with contradictory instructions being issued and altercations among the
fighters. Ali Mohammed Bakr, a Shabaab commander, said: "We were not
expecting that they would be using these tactics. We were caught by
surprise. I tried to get some of our men to go in behind but the Gaddafi
group spotted them and got away very fast. We do not have the vehicles or
the weapons for this kind of war. But we think some foreign countries have
been supplying special arms to Gaddafi, and that is the reason his soldiers
can hit us without us seeing them."

An insurgency campaign can succeed, it is generally accepted, only with the
help of elements of the local population. While it is true that most people
in the east of the country appear to fervently back the revolution, the
regime too enjoys support among communities and tribes. Local men have
fought alongside the loyalist soldiers against rebels several times, and
again in the town of Bin Jawad.






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