A Libyan worst-case scenario: 13 steps from now to a Middle East disaster Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Thursday, March 31, 2011 - 10:52 AM http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/31/a_libyan_worst_case_scenario _13_steps_from_now_to_a_middle_east_disaster
By "C" Best Defense guest columnist 1. We arm the "rebels" 2. Find this is both not enough and Qaddafi's forces overrun, confiscate, and use arms against rebels and coalition air forces 3. We try air assault against Qaddafi's ground forces 4. Find this is insufficient and leads to excessive collateral damage 5. We try to convince coalition to place boots on the ground 6. Notably France and other members reject land invasion 7. NATO can't gain consensus to modify Resolution 1973 8. United States bites the bullet, air assaults known Qaddafi military bases, and lands troops in Libya 9. Muslim nations raise unified cry that U.S. interest is Libyan oil and Qaddafi becomes a hero with broad-based Islamic support, notably Iran 10. We pull troops from Afghanistan (not a bad thing, just not soon enough) for Libyan engagements (rings just like from Afghanistan in 2002 to prep for Iraq) 11. Pakistani ISI and TTP move with impunity across the FATA and begin retaking Afghanistan (sounds like May 2002 -- summer 2003) 12. Meanwhile Qaddafi's forces melt into southern Libyan desert leaving us with a broken country #1 (courts won't allow confiscated billions to be used by "coalition" for Libyan rebuilding), a latent desert threat, and Afghan as broken country #2 13. Iran sees this as opportunity to "Balkanize" Iraq and presses negotiations with Syria, Turkey, the Kingdom, and Jordan to carve out pieces of Iraq for all To this I would add that I would expect unrest in Syria and Jordan to add to the pressure to push out the hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refugees now in those countries. Most of them are Sunni, and if they go back to Iraq, many will find their former residences occupied by Shiites not inclined to move out. [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [email protected]. -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [email protected] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [email protected] Unsubscribe: [email protected] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. OSINT, as a part of The Intelligence Network, is making it available without profit to OSINT YahooGroups members who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information in their efforts to advance the understanding of intelligence and law enforcement organizations, their activities, methods, techniques, human rights, civil liberties, social justice and other intelligence related issues, for non-profit research and educational purposes only. We believe that this constitutes a 'fair use' of the copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Law. If you wish to use this copyrighted material for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use,' you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtmlYahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/osint/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/osint/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: [email protected] [email protected] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [email protected] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
