Egypt: Situation Deteriorating Badly and Rapidly

Posted By Barry Rubin On May 9, 2011 

In the wake of bloody Muslim attacks on Egyptian Christians, the
<http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/09/world/middleeast/09egypt.html> New York
Times informs us:

"By lifting the heavy hand of the Mubarak police state, the revolution
unleashed long-suppressed sectarian animosities that have burst out with
increasing ferocity.."

No kidding! Did you think a single Egyptian Christian didn't know this in
February? Why didn't the media report or the U.S. government understand that
this was absolutely inevitable and predictable? But the only mentions of
Christians were to claim that they were really enthusiastic about the
revolution.

The remaining Christians in most of the Arabic-speaking world may be on the
edge of flight or extinction. All of the Christians have left the
Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip which is, in effect, an Islamist republic. They are
leaving the West Bank. Half have departed from an increasingly
Islamist-oriented Iraq where they are under terrorist attack. Within a few
years they might all be gone.

In Lebanon, while the Christians are holding their own, there is a steady
emigration. As for Syria, the community has generally supported the Assad
regime fearing a revolutionary Islamist replacement. One dissident recalled
that as he was being beaten in a Syrian prison a few years ago, the police
yelled at him, "Why are you doing this? You're a Christian!"

Egypt has more Christians than Israel's entire population. There have been
numerous attacks, with the latest in Cairo leaving 12 dead, 220 wounded, and
two churches burned. The Western media generally attributes this to
inter-religious battles. Yet Egypt's Christians, so totally outnumbered and
not having any access to the power of the state, have generally kept a low
profile.

It is hard to believe that gangs of Christians go out and attack Muslims,
especially when the fighting revolves around mobs attacking churches. "How
can they say we started it when we are defending our church?" asked one
Christian. That makes sense.

The Christians cannot depend on any support from Western churches or
governments. Will there be a massive flight of tens or even hundreds of
thousands of Christians from Egypt in the next few years?

The U.S. government has just announced that it will forgive about $1 billion
of Egyptian debt at a time when the American economy isn't doing so well.
You can just bet that there are no political strings attached: no pressure
over Egyptian backing of Hamas, growing anti-Israel policy, cutting off
natural gas supplies, the increasingly difficult situation of Christians,
opposing Iran's ambitions and nuclear weapons drive, or anything else.

What will happen if and when an Islamist-dominated regime is in power in
Egypt - which could happen as early as September? Will U.S. aid and support
continue?

Up until now, the strength of the Muslim Brotherhood has been badly
underestimated in the West. But increasingly it is also apparent that the
strength of anti-Islamist forces has been overestimated.

I have noted that even Amr Moussa, likely to be Egypt's next president and a
radical nationalist, has predicted an Islamist majority in parliament. That
should be a huge story, yet it has been largely ignored.

He is not creating his own party, meaning that a President Moussa will be
dependent on the Muslim Brotherhood in parliament. Rather than the radical
nationalists battling the Islamists, these two forces might well work
together.

And who will they be working against? Just guess.

  _____  

Article printed from Rubin Reports: http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin

URL to article:
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/05/09/egypt-situation-deteriorating-
badly-and-rapidly/

 



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