http://www.hstoday.us/single-article/implications-of-bin-ladens-death-examin ed-in-congressional-analysis/c39a318e7a200508e82f3ddff3aced9a.html
Implications of Bin Laden's Death Examined in Congressional Analysis By: Anthony Kimery 05/12/2011 (12:00am) A new Congressional Research Service Report (CRS) that examined the broad implications of the death of Osama Bin Laden (OBL) said "the degree to which OBL's death will affect Al Qaeda and how the US responds to this event may shape the future of many US national security activities." While the report doesn't offer any new factual information or analysis, it does present "an account of the policy questions arising from Bin Laden's death that may warrant congressional attention," pointed out Steven Aftergood, director of the Federation of American Scientists' (FAS) Project on Government Secrecy, and author of FAS's periodical newsletter, Secrecy News. Earlier, following the killing of the world's most wanted terrorist, Homeland Security Today reported <http://www.hstoday.us/blogs/the-kimery-report/blog/dhs-fbi-issue-alert-on-h omeland-security-implications-of-bin-ladens-death/db30b2d05281d6f957159b4fba b3f3a4.html> that the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) Intelligence & Analysis Production Branch and the FBI's Counterterrorism Analysis Section had quickly alerted law enforcement authorities nationwide that they are "monitor[ing] intelligence reporting for indications of threats to the homeland in retaliation for Bin Laden's death." The "for official use only" DHS-FBI "Joint Intelligence Bulletin" was "intended to provide a perspective regarding the scope of potential impacts of the . death of Osama Bin Laden." According to the CRS report, Osama Bin Laden's Death: Implications and Considerations <http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/terror/R41809.pdf> , the killing of Bin Laden "has led to a range of views about near- and long-term security and foreign policy implications for the United States." "Experts have a range of views about the killing of OBL," the report stated, noting that "some consider his death to be a largely symbolic event, while others believe it marks a significant achievement in US counterterrorism efforts." "Individuals suggesting that his death lacks great significance argue that US and allied actions had eroded OBL's ability to provide direction and support to Al Qaeda," the report said, pointing out that "for these analysts, OBL's influence declined following the US invasion of Afghanistan to a point where prior to his death he was the figurehead of an ideological movement. This argument reasons that a shift of terrorist capability has occurred away from the core of AQ to affiliated organizations." "Still others argue that OBL pursued a strategy of developing the AQ organization into an ideological movement thus making it more difficult to defeat," the report continued. "They contend that, even if OBL were no longer involved in the decision-making apparatus of AQ, his role as the inspirational leader of the organization was far more important than any operational advice he might offer." And "as such," the report stated, "his death may not negatively affect the actions of the ideological adherents of AQ and as a martyr he may attract and inspire a greater number of followers." The report noted that "individuals suggesting that his death is a major turning point in US counterterrorism efforts contend that OBL remained an active participant in setting a direction for the strategy and operations of AQ and its affiliates," and that "in addition to disrupting AQ's organizational activities, some believe his death may serve as a defining moment for the post 9/11 global counterterrorism campaign as current and potential terrorists, other governments, and entities that wish to threaten US interests will take note of the US success in achieving a long-held security goal." Consequently, the CRS report concluded that "the death of OBL may have near and long-term implications for AQ and US security strategies and policies." The report added that the "issues and questions related to the killing of . Bin Laden are multifaceted and may have operational, regional and policy implications. Operational policy issues include congressional notification, legal considerations, and current and future military activities." According to the earlier Joint DHS-FBI intelligence bulletin, which was swiftly circulated to law enforcement authorities once it was confirmed Bin Laden had actaully been killed, "Bin Laden's death may increase overall threat to the homeland . We assess the death of Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden, in the near term, is likely to provide motivation for homeland attacks - particularly from homegrown violent extremists," and that "in the near term [his death] is likely to provide motivation for homeland attacks - particularly from homegrown violent extremists" who are "seeking revenge or notoriety." The DHS-FBI alert further stated that "we continue to operate under the premise that terrorists not yet identified by the Intelligence Community and law enforcement may be operating in the United States and could advance and execute attacks without warning." According to the CRS report, "ascertaining the near- and long-term implications of OBL's death on Al Qaeda operations will be the subject of much analysis and debate for US policymakers," noting that "those implications may differ for core Al Qaeda leaders, their global affiliates, and non-affiliated ideological adherents of Al Qaeda around the world." "In describing the significance of OBL's role in Al Qaeda, government leaders and analysts offer a variety of perspectives. Some argue that OBL's role in Al Qaeda at the time of his death was largely inspirational as his ability to communicate with followers and offer strategic and operational guidance and support had increasingly been degraded since the US invasion of Afghanistan." Still "others argue that OBL remained an active participant in both the strategic direction and operational activities of all aspects of the Al Qaeda movement." The CRS report noted that based on the "seizure of documents and electronic data devices from his compound, some analysts suggest further disruption to global Al Qaeda related activities may be expected, including infighting between the remaining leaders of core Al Qaeda, lack of cohesion in and between the affiliated organizations, and fewer individuals recruited or radicalized to support Al Qaeda's goals." And "should these events materialize," the CRS report's analyst stated, "US security agencies and international partners may have an opportunity to exploit vulnerabilities with the goal of hastening the demise of Al Qaeda and its affiliated organizations. However, some analysts may argue that the regional global affiliates are the least likely Al Qaeda entity to be affected by OBL's death." "Among the key questions yet to be answered in the wake of OBL's killing is what response the Pakistani government gives to the covert US mission on its territory," the CRS report emphasized, noting that "the Pakistani military and intelligence services are now under pressure to explain how the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks was able to stay so deep inside Pakistan near a military academy." "Whatever the answer - incompetence or complicity - the dynamics provide the US government new leverage in pushing Pakistan to take more positive steps, though some argue that they also point to the limitations of what intelligence cooperation can be expected to achieve," stated the CRS analyst. "To the extent that official Pakistan is subdued in its criticism or even implicitly accepting of the development, most analysts believe intelligence cooperation can continue and even improve, perhaps with the United States recalibrating incentives and disincentives for Pakistan's security services." And "such a course could reverse some of the damage seen in the bilateral intelligence relationship in recent months ." the report stated [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [email protected]. -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [email protected] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [email protected] Unsubscribe: [email protected] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. 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