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Crisis in Yemen and U.S. Objectives Wednesday, 18 May 2011 17:57 Frederick Kagan, Katherine Zimmerman <http://www.rightsidenews.com/component/option,com_mailto/link,d8ffeec7ceab4 f645eb544275ee426700c7eca2e/tmpl,component/> E-mail <http://www.rightsidenews.com/2011051813563/world/geopolitics/crisis-in-yeme n-and-us-objectives/print.html> Print Political negotiations in Yemen have reached an impasse. On May 1, President Ali Abdullah Saleh refused to sign a deal aimed at ending the political unrest that has threatened to further destabilize the state. The prospect of regime change or even state collapse in Yemen undermines the entire basis of U.S. counter-terrorism operations and brings to the fore the danger posed by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, a group that has already attempted multiple attacks on U.S. soil. Yemen-mapAEI's Critical Threats Project has conducted the Yemen Strategic Exercise <http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/yemen-strategic-exercise-2011> to explore likely scenarios of regime-transition and state-collapse in Yemen in addition to the possible American responses to these scenarios. The first phase of the exercise was to develop a series of intelligence estimates for three possible scenarios: 1) Peaceful transition of power from Saleh to some successor(s) <http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/yemen-strategic-exercise-2011-estimate s-scenario-1> 2) Forceful removal of Saleh and regime loyalists by elements of the Yemeni military <http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/yemen-strategic-exercise-2011-estimate s-scenario-2> (escalation ranging from bloodless coup to civil war) 3) State fragmentation with or without Saleh nominally in charge in Sana <http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/yemen-strategic-exercise-2011-estimate s-scenario-3> 'a The second phase of the exercise is to consider American policy options in response to the most likely and most dangerous scenarios. Briefing slides outlining U.S. objectives in Yemen and identifying strategies for the United States are available to download below. We seek and welcome input on both topics-the scenario estimates and U.S. policy options. Please address comments, questions, or feedback to [email protected]. application/pdf iconCrisis in Yemen and U.S. Strategic Objectives <http://www.criticalthreats.org/sites/default/files/pdf_upload/analysis/Yeme n_Strategic_Exercise.pdf> Follow Events in Yemen on Critical Threats <http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen> The Critical Threats Project <http://www.criticalthreats.org/about> (CTP) provides the public and policymakers with comprehensive, unique, and objective tracking and analysis of the primary national security challenges faced by the United States. CTP is a project of the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI), a private, nonpartisan, not-for-profit institution that is dedicated to research and education on issues of government, politics, economics, and social welfare based in Washington, D.C. [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [email protected]. -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [email protected] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [email protected] Unsubscribe: [email protected] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. OSINT, as a part of The Intelligence Network, is making it available without profit to OSINT YahooGroups members who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information in their efforts to advance the understanding of intelligence and law enforcement organizations, their activities, methods, techniques, human rights, civil liberties, social justice and other intelligence related issues, for non-profit research and educational purposes only. We believe that this constitutes a 'fair use' of the copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Law. If you wish to use this copyrighted material for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use,' you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtmlYahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/osint/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/osint/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: [email protected] [email protected] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [email protected] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
