On May 23, 2008, at 12:08 PM, Kevin Callahan wrote: > >> >> I still think she'll drop out after all the primaries are over >> (June 6?), but damn, maybe she will bring it all the way to the >> convention. > > Clinton to the Convention? > -RACHEL MADDOW > > <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rachel-maddow/clinton-to-the-convention_b_103078.html
From the article: > Here's my way: based on my read of NBC's delegate math, I think if > the Clinton campaign won 100% of what they wanted on the Florida and > Michigan dispute, Obama could still clinch the nomination -- even > according to the most pro-Clinton math -- if 90 of the remaining 210- > or-so undeclared superdelegates declared for Obama. In other words, if the remaining primaries play out the way they probably will, then Obama only needs to lose the remaining superdelegates 43-57 to win the most delegates even with Florida and Michigan included as though Obama had been on the ballot/campaigning in both states. Considering that Obama is ahead in pledged delegates and (perhaps more importantly to superdelegates who want a candidate with coattails) ahead in fundraising, this seems extremely likely. The remaining primaries will be a little weird anyway, since Obama's getting all this coverage as the presumptive nominee. Maybe that's free advertising for him, but maybe it'll depress his turnout since people take him as a given. Similarly, it's hard to say if Clinton voters will be dispirited or galvanized. Either way, I don't think there are enough unpledged delegates left for it to make much difference, especially since Hillary doesn't have any Appalachian states left to hammer Obama with. All that's left is Puerto Rico (63 delegates), Montana and South Dakota (47 between them). If Clinton doesn't drop out after the primaries are over, getting the superdelegates to commit might be a reasonable way to force her. But I think it's silly of Maddow to claim this is her idea: it's basically why Howard Dean has been urging superdelegates to commit for a while now, one way or another, so that this whole thing can be resolved. But, yeah, at this point I'm just not sure what will stop Hillary from running. Even if all the superdels turn against her, I'm half expecting her to hang on to the convention just in case Obama has a stroke or something. -Patrick _______________________________________________ OSX-Nutters mailing list | [email protected] http://lists.tit-wank.com/mailman/listinfo/osx-nutters List hosted at http://cat5.org/
