I said wp7 would fail in the first three years of its birth. I said Silverlight was ear marked for depreciation along side WPF and now I say Win8 will fail in consumer uptake.
2/3 so far in my favor... As a software soothsayer / mountain sage I declare this a misfire. I'm wondering what if it does fail? lets put aside the emotive "its authentically digital" marketing spin and assume the worse, 2 years from now someone hands in a final metric report via the ye olde "reviews of the business" meetings in the EBC building.. Someone says out loud "We have failed master"... what is the fall out? Stock price hasn't really done much in movement for years so there's no real penalty box there (maybe Steve Balmer loses his job - which isn't a bad thing either). Marketshare in the device gets smaller for Microsoft? looking at wp7 metrics there's no real sign of positive growth there anyway so again, no harm no foul? They lose developer hearts & minds? well I think they are on track to do that even if win8 gets success, so again, nothing really eye popping.. Overall, I think this is really just a game of trial/error for them. They are really behind the 8-ball and despite the quiet panic that's ongoing within Microsoft around how Google/Oracle and Apple are scaring the kids, this is really a case of pulling the same strategy used with Internet Explorer (or what I like to call "Goldie locks and the three browsers"... "IE7 too cold, IE8 too hot, IE9 ...just right..but i'm on a diet, so no thanks" :) --- Regards, Scott Barnes http://www.riagenic.com On Thu, Jun 7, 2012 at 1:06 PM, Bill McCarthy < [email protected]> wrote: > It is the initial shock that is the problem. Take the example of Vista. I > honestly didn't mind Vista; sure there were a few too many "are you sure?" > 's , but it was pretty good. I think the benefits far outweighed any of the > negatives, but that was a view of the security issues that had been > plaguing windows. The general reaction however was a LOT of negativity. > Oddly enough people now seem happy with Win 7 which really was like a > service pack to Vista, although some still grumble muttering something > about Vista <g> > > There's no doubt our view is tainted. But I can't apply enough rose colour > tint to make me believe it is acceptable for the user to have to know what > is a metro app and what is a desktop app and that the navigating to them > whilst running is completely different ( a lot of people don't use the > keyboard shortcuts, they use the taskbar) > > For those that buy a tablet first, then later buy windows 8 on a > desktop/laptop or at work, their experience will be totally different. But > for those coming from windows 7 they will be confronted with initial shock. > And I think that's a real pity. It just generates negativity and all the > good things are missed (eg how many conversations have you seen about the > new task manager). I don't see any benefit in removing the start button, I > don't see any benefit in hiding metro apps from the taskbar whilst ALT+TAB > shows them. Again it is like they have overshot the mark, just as most > would agree now they did with Vista. > > > > |-----Original Message----- > |From: [email protected] [mailto:ozdotnet- > |[email protected]] On Behalf Of David Kean > |Sent: Thursday, 7 June 2012 11:56 AM > |To: ozDotNet > |Subject: RE: Win8 Release Preview > | > |Exactly. Once you get over the initial shock for the transition from the > desktop to > |it (which I can assure you, was much worse in earlier builds – the > desktop used to > |spin), you get used it. One more thing, our view is very skewed because > we’re > |developers and use very “classic” bound apps. As more and more mainline > apps > |become “metrofied” I think it will feel very natural to navigate whether > using a > |mouse, keyboard or touch, and the transition between desktop and metro > will > |become less frequent. > | > | > | > |From: [email protected] [mailto:ozdotnet- > |[email protected]] On Behalf Of Joseph Cooney > |Sent: Wednesday, June 6, 2012 5:43 PM > |To: ozDotNet > |Subject: Re: Win8 Release Preview > | > | > | > |I just started thinking of that metro screen as a full-screen start menu > and my > |yearning for one went away. > | > |Joseph > | > | > |On 07/06/2012, at 9:58 AM, "Andrew Coates (DPE AUSTRALIA)" > |<[email protected]> wrote: > | > | I’m not sure I get the yearning for a start menu. Maybe I use it > differently > |from others, but the metro screen lays out my commonly used apps nicely, > and > |anything else I need I can find just by typing the first couple of > letters of its name. > |The metro screen comes to the front when I hit the Windows button (like > the > |start menu does in 7) and all my keyboard shortcuts work (and then some). > | > | > | > | Andrew Coates, ME, MCPD, MCSD MCTS, Developer Evangelist, > |Microsoft, 1 Epping Road, NORTH RYDE NSW 2113 > | Ph: +61 (2) 9870 2719 • Mob +61 (416) 134 993 • Fax: +61 (2) 9870 > 2400 • > |http://blogs.msdn.com/acoat <http://blogs.msdn.com/acoat> > | > | > | > | From: [email protected] [mailto:ozdotnet- > |[email protected]] <mailto:[mailto:[email protected]]> > |On Behalf Of David Connors > | Sent: Thursday, 7 June 2012 9:41 AM > | To: ozDotNet > | Subject: Re: Win8 Release Preview > | > | > | > | On Thu, Jun 7, 2012 at 9:07 AM, Bill McCarthy > |<[email protected]> wrote: > | > | IMO, windows 8 is close, but it could be a lot better. I love the > windows > | phone like UI **concept**, and I love the idea of the similarities > between > | the different form factors, BUT the current release preview looks > to me > |to > | be designed for content consumption not content creation. Where, > for > | example, is My documents gone ? > | > | > | > | I think you're right - it is very close. The problem is that there > is a lot of > |traditional desktop functionality that has become a casualty of MS' iPad > fear. > | > | > | > | I reckon if the start menu came back and they got rid of the need > for hot > |spots in the corners it could be a lot more usable. > | > | > | > | Metro vs desktop apps schism is pretty difficult to live with. > | > | > | > | -- > | David Connors > | [email protected] > > >
