On Fri, Jun 22, 2012 at 10:40 AM, Nick Randolph <[email protected]>wrote:
> Yeh but you’re working on the assumption the phone team is stupid. They’re > not, they understand the trade offs, they recognise this will piss certain > people off, they look at the market and the majority _*just don’t care!!!*_ > It’s as simple as that. Trade off of new features, upgraded platform versus > the tiny % of the population that actually care. > Engineering wise they aren't dumb. Marketing, Decision making and overall long term strategic thinking you couldn't find a dumber team if you were picking from an island filled with cocaine inhabited by 1000 monkeys who lived for a 1000 years. If anything though they have shown consistency in this level of thinking, despite the warnings and despite the loud blogging around "you need to turn away, there is an iceberg ahead!!" screaming that has gone on. Having said that little toxic filled cloud of venom :) I would disagree that they "look at the market" as that would indicate there is some long term strategy at play here. Up until this point it's been a legacy of tactical reactive decision making that centred around Apple and Google compete. It was highly volatile situation given after Windows Phone reset (which was in many ways similar to the Windows Vista release/resets) and the blood bath that was given at an MVP summit on this very discussion (internally and externally) the overall "planning" for the phone has been beyond ignorant. Today, I'd say well it appears the Windows Teams have not only beaten the DevDiv politics to the ground and won but they actually may have a plan now that's could go beyond 1x fiscal year. This release really is the official entry to the Phone market again and in reality Windows Phone 7.x has and will always be a foot in the door, hold my spot while I think of an actual plan release. Now, I personally said 2 years ago that the Windows Phone 7 would fail in consumer demand and developer uptake and the reason I said that was because I knew it was a stillborn release for these very reasons (despite being laughed / ridiculed at..but that may have been for other reasons lol). Windows Phone 8 is what I would call "Sinofsky release" not "devdiv" release (wp7 was). So this has absolutely nothing to do with existing market share or consumers per say, it's more about getting the inheritance out of the way so he can make his bones with his own set of strategies. You think Scott Guthrie in Azure is a good decision or "get the chosen one out of the way so i can kill this F*(King UX Platform legacy) :D... (despite the good he's doing in Azure mind you). > ** > > Windows Phone still suffers from chicken and egg syndrome. Whilst there > are a lot of apps coming into market, it’s still a small % compared to > other platforms. Developers won’t build for a platform with such a low > percentage market share (not worth it). Yet, consumers won’t buy devices > without the core set of apps. Well that’s what the various tech journals > would have you believe. The reality is that people buy phones for a TON of > different reasons ranging from it being bright and shiny (think Lumia 610) > to having a freakin massive screen (Galaxy Note) to having a wide range of > awesome apps (iPhone). **** > > ** > In part you're right, but ubiquity is a psychological battle less a percentage battle and it's never really had the budgeting and power team(s) behind it. As I stated why would you invest in a product you know you have to replenish/replace once you stabilize Windows 8? Nokia to date has shown that with a bit of marketing this phone actually stands a chance in making it but despite how visible the phone's marketing has gotten today it still lacks actual real investment to the tune of 200million USD+ to make this work. Microsoft right now will most likely start to swarm the marketing around this phone more aggressively than ever before (ie the fact they are making hardware for this story is a strong indicator of quiet panic within), and in reality seeding apps to get onto the phone is a lot easier than it was to seed Silverlight on desktop(s) world wide. For one you can pay Angry Birds, Cut the Rope etc team(s) 5-10million+ to port their apps to the phone individually and all you really need is the top50 apps mixed with XBOX Live Arcade and you can pretty much start to ease the assumption it's a vacant app parking lot. Furthermore if you take the Zune / Nokia music models and approach it from that angle whilst localizing Movie/TV/Music rights locally further you could easily tip the scales back in your favour. Nice thought that if you build an app right now that gets into the top 50 on iOS you not only make your $$ there but Google/Microsoft will also pay you additionally an undisclosed amount to port to their devices ... talk about bonus round! :) Like I said, we've not really seen Microsoft Windows team market the mobile and tablet device yet, we've seen a few drips and drabs but going forward with Windows 8 they have to invest more than they have ever before (historically i doub't we'll see this level of investment form Microsoft before) as if Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 fails not only is Steve Ballmer going to face a nervous board meeting but Steve Sinofsky's time in Microsoft will be much like the guy who brought us Windows Vista ... Who is he again? > ** > > If Microsoft want to succeed they need to sell phones. Simple as that. So > it’s a balancing act between getting developers (in the long term) to build > for the platform versus pissing some developers off in the short term. WP8 > is that bet imho – they’ve stated they’re chasing Enterprise, Gaming and > compat with Windows. I get it, that’s where developers want to be building > app. I see WP8 as delivering on that. > Agree in part but one thing to note is that up until now its really been a C#/XAML only discussion but keep a close eye on the IE10 story as not only is it opening up the "phone gap" more with its SDK potential but you could likely see a more broader developer base. With that, if you piss off 1 C# developer and grow 10 HTML5/JS hackathon like developer(s) over the next 3-5 years then the math would stack in their favour here (collateral damage guys). Further reading: http://devlicio.us/blogs/rob_eisenberg/archive/2012/04/18/the-manifold-blunders-of-xaml-part-1-version-and-platform-hell.aspx Microsoft releases a UX platform every 2 years.. (kind of). > *From:* [email protected] [mailto: > [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *David Connors > *Sent:* Friday, 22 June 2012 10:31 AM > > *To:* ozDotNet > *Subject:* Re: Windows Phone 8 announced**** > > ** ** > > On Fri, Jun 22, 2012 at 10:23 AM, Nick Randolph <[email protected]> > wrote:**** > > We vented yesterday, now to get on with business. Public posts like this > don't help a bad situation, they just make it worse. Accept what is, and > move on - complaining isn't going to change what's going to come to pass.* > *** > > ** ** > > Alternatively, you're unlikely to change group think by staying silent.*** > * > > ** ** > > Now, where's my start button.**** > > ** ** > > -- > David Connors > [email protected]**** >
