> financial analysts in Japan have an interesting take on this. they believe > that for all intents and purposes, only Sony and Canon will be real players > in the digital camera market in 2 years. everyone else will be marginalized > with Nikon losing the most since they started at number 2 at the beginning > of the digital camera dash.
D1. Nikon STARTED the digital camera dash (unless you count the NC2000, which was based on a Nikon 8008 but made by Kodak). Nikon may also not "lose the most" since they may not have started with much marketshare. Last I heard, their digital marketshare was actually UP recently. Personally, I think pros will continue to use Canon and Nikon just like Coke and Pepsi, Ford and Chevy. Right now, guys are getting fed up with Nikon and going to Canon. For a while, it was the other way around. Everything else is used primarily by amateurs and afficionados. That's not a bad thing--there are plenty of them around to support a healthy diversity of camera manufacturers. In the mass market, Nikon may well not do so well. That has never been their strongpoint. Look at how poorly the EM and E series lenses did. > they never considered Pentax to be in the > running at all as a mass market digital camera vendor. Pentax has recently > revised its 2004 forecast from 1.6 million to 1.4 million digital cameras > sold worldwide. Interesting to know how many are expected to be SLRs. I heard that 50 million digital cameras were sold last year, but that may well include webcams, pen cams, and various other imaging devices that most of us wouldn't call cameras. It is also interesting to note that while Kodak claims that they are not going to be researching any new films, Pop Photo's recent "report from Japan" suggests that many of the camera companies are not going to stop researching film cameras. Many of them apparently feel that digital SLRs are going to be niche market cameras for a long time yet due to price and that the great digital rush will slow and eventually level out. DJE
