The following opinions are based on my short time (2.2 years) working at a camera shop.
With that in mind ... C-41 film will die (as a marketable item). ...Processing will be too expensive to maintian. ...135/120/220 will go (are going) first. Sheet films later.
I doubt C-41 will die anytime soon. It's still the most convenient film format, and people do still seem to use a lot of single-use cameras. Plus, shops like mine have labs that print both digital images and film-based images from the same machine, so the cost of keeping C-41 processing going alongside digital processing can't be that much more than just digital processing alone. Not that I would know the actual numbers, though.
Medium format may as well be dead right now, but it does twitch from time to time. Matter of fact, I'm hoping to find a decent Pentax 67 in the near future, because I really like medium format quality.
B&W film will maintain its niche. ...you can process it yourself.
True B&W processing will decline, yes, but C-41 B&W will stick around, I believe, for a while longer. Convenience and nostalgia will be the driving force there, I believe.
I'm not certain how color positive (reversal/E6) films will do.
My shop seems to do a decent amount of slide film, but it has slowed down a heck of a lot, even in the two+ years I've been there.
I swear it's not my fault.
John Celio
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AIM: Neopifex
"Hey, I'm an artist. I can do whatever I want and pretend I'm making a statement."
