Re: The sky is...

[P. J. Alling]

No, I'm saying that Japan will build a military machine to match 
perceived threats.  The Chinese are currently buying all the hardware 
they can afford, maybe more than they can afford, it is Chinese policy 
to regain all of the former Chinese lands that have broken away, (you 
should really ask the Tibetans how that's working out for them, I expect 
the Taiwanese have taken that into account).  When it becomes clear that 
the Chinese have no interest in reigning in the North Korean nuclear 
ambitions, (it discomforts China's rivals and indirectly benefits 
China's foreign policy by doing so), the Japanese will take whatever 
steps are necessary to be able to defend themselves.  If the Chinese 
economy is strong enough to out spend the Japanese, it won't matter the 
Japanese will still spend. 

John Forbes wrote:

What are you saying?  That if the Japanese think China will overtake 
them  economically, Japan will go to war?  I suppose anything is 
possible, but I  rather doubt they'd do that.  There has been no war 
in Western Europe for  sixty years (the longest period of peace in 
European history).   Coexistence is possible, as the American North 
and South have proved since  1865.

John


On Sun, 06 Nov 2005 20:11:41 -0000, P. J. Alling  
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

The game of national survival is played for high stakes, and it's not 
a  chess game.  Very few nations have simply given up because they 
were  going to lose. The Soviets tried to match US moves and defense 
spending  because they thought they had to.  I never said Japan would 
win or could  win, just that they would have very unpalatable 
choices.  Based on  history I know what they'll probably do. John 
Forbes wrote:

Since Japan has approximately one tenth the population of China, 
it's  hard  to see how they can hope to remain more powerful.

It was trying to compete in an arms race with a larger competitor 
that   brought down the Soviets.  I can't see the Japanese being 
similarly   self-deluding.

John

On Sun, 06 Nov 2005 19:22:27 -0000, P. J. Alling   
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

Nope, they just have an arms race to look forward to, or abdicate  
their  place as the most powerful country in Asia to China.  It's  
interesting  but the Japanese have been arming Taiwan, (with US  
help),. quietly for  the last few years, and with the Chinese  
stepchild of North Korea  rattling it's nuclear  saber 
periodically  the Japanese government will  see itself left with 
few other options,  and none they will find  palatable.  I don't 
good will has much to do  with national survival.   Even Venezuela 
, who's current president  sees himself as the heir to  Castro, 
will sell Oil to the US.  He  needs the money to fund his own  
ambitions, good will has nothing to  do with it.

William Robb wrote:


----- Original Message ----- From: "P. J. Alling"
Subject: Re: The sky is...


The US economy has it's problems but they are fundamentally 
fewer  than  Japans.




Both economies are now dependent on the goodwill of foreign  
countries  for survival.
The peril of an oil based economy when you haven't enough of it   
yourself.
Japan isn't beeing bled to death by an expensive to maintain, 
and   probably soon to escalate, war.

William Robb















--
When you're worried or in doubt, 
	Run in circles, (scream and shout).