Hey it looks like there are some pretty good chances for auroras the next couple of nights for high and mid-latitude observers. Tom C. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Cary Oler" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Wednesday, August 15, 2001 11:13 AM Subject: AstroAlert: Another chance to observe auroral activity > A s t r o A l e r t > Sun-Earth Alert > > Solar Terrestrial Dispatch > http://www.spacew.com > > 15 August 2001 > > MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH - 16-19 AUGUST > > A full halo solar coronal mass ejection was observed following the > eruption of a solar filament on 14 August. The trajectory of this disturbance > should permit a near head-on collision with the Earth. The impact of the > disturbance is expected to occur sometime on 17 August (perhaps as early as > late on 16 August, but more likely sometime on 17 August and spanning into 18 > August). > > This activity is expected to intensify auroral activity (northern / > southern lights) to levels that may become visible over fairly widespread > dark-sky middle latitude regions on 17 and 18 August. Although no significant > auroral storming is expected, periods of activity may be rather intense for > brief periods of time and over localized regions. > > Observers over North America are encouraged to get out and watch for > activity on the evenings of 16 through 18 August, with special emphasis for > the evenings of 16 and 17 August. The near-new phase of the moon will promote > nice dark skies for observing auroral activity throughout the night. As a > result, this MAY be a potentially good opportunity to view activity from the > northern tier of the U.S. states and most other middle and high latitude > regions. > > Observers who spot activity are encouraged to submit their sightings to > the global observation network using the form available through the web page: > http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.html. Current conditions and regularly > updated forecasts of activity are available at: > http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. > > The middle latitude auroral activity watch bulletin that was issued for > this event is appended below: > > /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ > > MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH > > WATCH ISSUED: 16:00 UTC, 15 AUGUST 2001 > > /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ > > VALID BEGINNING AT: 21:00 UTC ON 16 AUGUST (5:00 pm EDT, 16 August) > VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 19 AUGUST (3 pm EDT, 19 August) > > HIGH RISK PERIOD: 17 - 18 AUG (UTC DAYS) > MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 16 - 19 AUG > > PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 10, 12, 30, 20 (15 AUG - 18 AUG) > > POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE > > POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS > MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS > > ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT > > EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NIL > > OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD > > AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... > > NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO NORTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO > SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN > PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. > > > ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... > > UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN FINLAND TO NORTHERN > RUSSIA. REGIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND MAY SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY. > > SYNOPSIS... > > A full halo coronal mass ejection associated with a filament eruption > and hyder flare were observed shortly after the mid-UTC of 14 August. This > disturbance is expected to impact the Earth late on 16 August or (preferably) > sometime on 17 August. The arrival of this activity could result in periods > of visible auroral activity across many middle latitude regions. The near new > phase of the moon will help maintain optimally dark skies throughout the > night over most regions. The trajectory of this disturbance is more nearly > head-on with the Earth. It should also contain suitable fields for generating > periods of moderate to briefly strong levels of auroral activity over some > high and middle latitude regions. Significant global auroral storm activity > is not very probable, but individual localized substorm activity may become > fairly strong at times. > > This watch will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 19 August when it > will either be allowed to expire or will be updated. > > PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO: > http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html > > * OR * > > Use the STD AURORA MONITOR Software to monitor conditions and > report sightings. It is available at: > > http://www.spacew.com/aurora > > > WE HAVE A DISCUSSION FORUM FOR AURORA ENTHUSIASTS AVAILABLE AT: > http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html > > > ** End of AstroAlert ** > ================================================================== > AstroAlert is a free service of SKY & TELESCOPE magazine, 49 Bay > State Rd., Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A. This e-mail was sent to > AstroAlert subscribers. 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