On 8 September 2011 12:35, Subash <[email protected]> wrote: > these are only figures for japan/asia but interesting nonetheless. > canon and nikon lose a combined 35% market share while sony doubles it. > > http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-07/canon-clinging-to-mirrors-means-opportunity-for-sony-cameras.html > > so, is the dslr dead yet? perhaps there's hope for the Q :) > > -- > regards, subash >
I found this quote quite revealing, " 'Mirrorless cameras are a threat,' said David Rubenstein, a Tokyo-based analyst at MF Global FXA Securities Ltd...." I guess they would be a threat to companies that choose to oppose the trend rather than embrace it. Some observations: Non adoption of autofocus cut the SLR market from perhaps twenty or more brands in the sixties and early seventies to less than ten. (Topcon, anyone? Or Miranda? Yashica? Petri?) Contax and Olympus both flubbed their AF implimentations, but Olympus redeemed itself with a confident early digital program. Non or late adoption of digital imaging cut that figure down to about seven (not counting brands that only sell small sensor cameras. Pentax scraped through by the skin of its teeth after dodging the Phillips bullet. Contax fell to the Phillips bullet after botching its AF program. (Panasonic and Leica briefly dallied in the sector, the last Panny DSLR was launched in 2007, while Leica has gone upscale to medium format DSLRs). Oh, then there's Sigma, but their unconformity puts them so far out in left field that they're a boutique product in a very small niche, kept alive by their third party lens sales. So now we have Canon, Nikon, Sony, Pentax, Olympus, Panasonic and Leica. Have I forgotten anyone? We'll add Ricoh later, but they have no DSLR legacy so we won't count them just yet? Samsung? Same as Ricoh, except that while they briefly sold some DSLRs those were seconded from the Pentax line-up, and surely nobody ever saw them as anything but Pentaxes. Leica's gone back to its rangefinder roots, no DSLR in this segment any more. Sony has launched a strong product into the MILC (Mirrorless Interchangeable Lens Camera) segment, while retaining their DSLR range. Even there, the reflex mirror is being challenged by the fixed beamsplitter. Olympus has almost completely moved to MILCs with their m43 range. Their last 4/3 DSLR, the E5 was launched a year ago and is, I suspect, the only one still being made. Their next most recent DSLR was launched more than 2 years ago, but here in Australia only the E5 is still catalogued as a current model, all the others are drying up fast. Panasonic has fully committed to m43 MILCs, their last 4/3 DSLR was the DMC-L10 from 2007 which is discontinued. So now we have only four and a half brands selling DSLRs with sensor formats between 4/3 and 135 full-frame. Half a brand? Well, I reckon Olympus will pull the plug on 4/3 when their lens inventory depletes to where they either need to recommit to the format by making more lenses, or kill the format entirely. It's a loss-maker, m43 is a milking-cow. What would you do? That leaves Canon, Nikon, Sony and Pentax as the only DSLR makers in the segment. Sony is safe with their MILCS. Pentax has the capability proven by the Q. Will they merge the concept with an APS-C sensor? Can they afford not to? Nikon is rumoured to have a MILC coming soon: http://nikonrumors.com/2011/08/16/nikons-mirrorless-interchangeable-lens-camera-will-be-announced-on-august-24th.aspx/ and http://nikonrumors.com/2011/08/16/first-drawings-of-nikons-mirrorless-interchangeable-lens-camera.aspx/ It's reported to be a 2.6x crop factor format, which makes it about a one inch, or a little smaller than 4/3. Is the market ready to accept a smaller sensor? Japan will, so I guess the rest of the world will just have to suck it up. Canon has nothing, only the report of a patent application. Are they mad, or just very good at keeping a secret? Ricoh was out in the cold for years, but kept a good reputation for quality and innovation in the smaller formats. They're back now with the GXR with A12 module for M-mount getting good notices. Samsung seems to have fallen on its feet even though it blundered by making its MILCs incompatible with M-mount. They've got ambition going for them, but they don't always make the best decisions. Which means, funnily enough, that while all the previous adoptions of new technology have reduced the number of brands competing in this segment, this latest shift might actually increase the number of brands. My prediction is that within five years the only DSLRs will be a few premium and professional models, perhaps one from each surviving major player. I also predict that within ten years their won't be DSLRs in the 4/3 to 135 range. This was longer than I thought it'd be, so thanks for reading. regards, Anthony "Of what use is lens and light to those who lack in mind and sight" (Anon) -- PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List [email protected] http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net to UNSUBSCRIBE from the PDML, please visit the link directly above and follow the directions.
