Very interesting reading Anthony, thanks for sharing your analysis and predictions...
Who's next? ;-) Jaume >________________________________ >De: Anthony Farr <[email protected]> >Para: Pentax-Discuss Mail List <[email protected]> >Enviado: jueves 8 de septiembre de 2011 11:49 >Asunto: Re: interesting trends... > >On 8 September 2011 12:35, Subash <[email protected]> wrote: >> these are only figures for japan/asia but interesting nonetheless. >> canon and nikon lose a combined 35% market share while sony doubles it. >> >> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-07/canon-clinging-to-mirrors-means-opportunity-for-sony-cameras.html >> >> so, is the dslr dead yet? perhaps there's hope for the Q :) >> >> -- >> regards, subash >> > >I found this quote quite revealing, >" 'Mirrorless cameras are a threat,' said David Rubenstein, a >Tokyo-based analyst at MF Global FXA Securities Ltd...." > >I guess they would be a threat to companies that choose to oppose the >trend rather than embrace it. > >Some observations: > >Non adoption of autofocus cut the SLR market from perhaps twenty or >more brands in the sixties and early seventies to less than ten. >(Topcon, anyone? Or Miranda? Yashica? Petri?) Contax and Olympus >both flubbed their AF implimentations, but Olympus redeemed itself >with a confident early digital program. > >Non or late adoption of digital imaging cut that figure down to about >seven (not counting brands that only sell small sensor cameras. >Pentax scraped through by the skin of its teeth after dodging the >Phillips bullet. Contax fell to the Phillips bullet after botching >its AF program. (Panasonic and Leica briefly dallied in the sector, >the last Panny DSLR was launched in 2007, while Leica has gone upscale >to medium format DSLRs). Oh, then there's Sigma, but their >unconformity puts them so far out in left field that they're a >boutique product in a very small niche, kept alive by their third >party lens sales. > >So now we have Canon, Nikon, Sony, Pentax, Olympus, Panasonic and >Leica. Have I forgotten anyone? We'll add Ricoh later, but they have >no DSLR legacy so we won't count them just yet? Samsung? Same as >Ricoh, except that while they briefly sold some DSLRs those were >seconded from the Pentax line-up, and surely nobody ever saw them as >anything but Pentaxes. > >Leica's gone back to its rangefinder roots, no DSLR in this segment any more. > >Sony has launched a strong product into the MILC (Mirrorless >Interchangeable Lens Camera) segment, while retaining their DSLR >range. Even there, the reflex mirror is being challenged by the fixed >beamsplitter. > >Olympus has almost completely moved to MILCs with their m43 range. >Their last 4/3 DSLR, the E5 was launched a year ago and is, I suspect, >the only one still being made. Their next most recent DSLR was >launched more than 2 years ago, but here in Australia only the E5 is >still catalogued as a current model, all the others are drying up >fast. > >Panasonic has fully committed to m43 MILCs, their last 4/3 DSLR was >the DMC-L10 from 2007 which is discontinued. > >So now we have only four and a half brands selling DSLRs with sensor >formats between 4/3 and 135 full-frame. Half a brand? Well, I reckon >Olympus will pull the plug on 4/3 when their lens inventory depletes >to where they either need to recommit to the format by making more >lenses, or kill the format entirely. It's a loss-maker, m43 is a >milking-cow. What would you do? > >That leaves Canon, Nikon, Sony and Pentax as the only DSLR makers in >the segment. Sony is safe with their MILCS. Pentax has the >capability proven by the Q. Will they merge the concept with an APS-C >sensor? Can they afford not to? Nikon is rumoured to have a MILC >coming soon: > >http://nikonrumors.com/2011/08/16/nikons-mirrorless-interchangeable-lens-camera-will-be-announced-on-august-24th.aspx/ >and >http://nikonrumors.com/2011/08/16/first-drawings-of-nikons-mirrorless-interchangeable-lens-camera.aspx/ > >It's reported to be a 2.6x crop factor format, which makes it about a >one inch, or a little smaller than 4/3. Is the market ready to accept >a smaller sensor? Japan will, so I guess the rest of the world will >just have to suck it up. > >Canon has nothing, only the report of a patent application. Are they >mad, or just very good at keeping a secret? > >Ricoh was out in the cold for years, but kept a good reputation for >quality and innovation in the smaller formats. They're back now with >the GXR with A12 module for M-mount getting good notices. > >Samsung seems to have fallen on its feet even though it blundered by >making its MILCs incompatible with M-mount. They've got ambition >going for them, but they don't always make the best decisions. > >Which means, funnily enough, that while all the previous adoptions of >new technology have reduced the number of brands competing in this >segment, this latest shift might actually increase the number of >brands. > >My prediction is that within five years the only DSLRs will be a few >premium and professional models, perhaps one from each surviving major >player. > >I also predict that within ten years their won't be DSLRs in the 4/3 >to 135 range. > >This was longer than I thought it'd be, so thanks for reading. > >regards, Anthony > > "Of what use is lens and light > to those who lack in mind and sight" > (Anon) > >-- >PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List >[email protected] >http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net >to UNSUBSCRIBE from the PDML, please visit the link directly above and follow >the directions. > > > -- PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List [email protected] http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net to UNSUBSCRIBE from the PDML, please visit the link directly above and follow the directions.
