on 2012-07-13 10:58 Darren Addy wrote
The other good news is that the sunspot group that shot this thing at
us is still aimed at earth and there is a darn good chance (35%) that
it will spit out another one within the next 48 hours. If it does, the
1-2 punch could *really* light up the magnetosphere over the weekend.

if there's to be a *huge* X-flare, i'd like it to happen when i am in Crested Butte next week (magnetic latitude about 47°, but far from Denver's urban lights); haven't seen any but the faintest auroras since my youth in Maine, when i saw some spectacular ones

another resource is

<http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Aurora/>

particularly the "Kp maps" section will give you a Kp threshold for it to be likely to see an aurora at your location, and then this will tell you if current conditions approach that threshold:

<http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html>

i need Kp=9, which happens about 4 times per 11-year cycle

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