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http://www.worldpolicy.org/projects/arms

NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION: Ongoing Challenges
By Michelle Ciarrocca

Let's face it, despite President Bush acknowledging nuclear proliferation
as the most serious threat facing U.S. security, under the guidance of the
Bush Administration the situation has gotten worse, not better.

The Bush administration's hands-off approach in dealing with Iran and
North Korea to avoid "legitimizing" them has done more harm than good. As
Michael Hirsh pointed out in Newsweek, Bush "sought to treat them as
Ronald Reagan did the Soviet Union, ostracizing them and pushing for a
transition to democracy. But as one official notes, even Reagan eventually
did business with the leader of the 'Evil Empire.'" And with the recent
nomination of John Bolton as the next ambassador to the United Nations,
all talk of repairing relations abroad and pursuing a more diplomatic
approach seems like a joke

But now, more than ever, is a good time to take stock of the state of
nuclear proliferation and the ongoing challenges facing the U.S., and the
world. The NPT Review Conference is coming up at the UN in May. The 188
governments which have ratified the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
meet every five years to assess the implementation of the treaty, and much
has changed since the 2000 review conference. From North Korea's recent
announcement that it has acquired nuclear weapons and its complete
abandonment of the NPT to Iran's "noncompliance" and the snail-pace
reductions between the U.S. and Russia, there will be no shortage of items
to discuss during the upcoming review conference at the United Nations.

There are eight countries with declared nuclear weapons: the U.S.,
Britain, France, China and Russia (all signatories of the NPT), India and
Pakistan (both outside of the NPT) and now, North Korea (which walked away
from the Treaty). Israel has nuclear weapons, but does not officially
acknowledge them.


IRAN

To this day, despite Tehran's confirmation of an existing underground
nuclear facility, Iran maintains its nuclear program is for peaceful means
and is not geared towards the production of nuclear weapons. Ali Akbar
Salehi, a nuclear affairs adviser to the foreign minister, told the
Associated Press, "To protect the safety of equipment against possible
danger of aerial attack, a major part of the plant has been constructed
underground, especially where thousands of centrifuges need to be
located."

In line with the neo-conservative elements in the Bush administration, the
U.S. has refused to hold direct talks with Tehran, and hard-liners are
urging the IAEA to refer the issue to the UN Security Council with the
hopes of placing sanctions on Iran. And while it has been widely reported
that U.S. forces have been checking out potential targets in Iran,
President Bush has said the U.S. is not planning to attack Iran, but has
also said all military options are on the table.

In recent statements, and in what would be an important policy shift, the
Bush administration seems inclined to back European diplomatic
initiatives, which would include economic and technological assistance. In
an interview with NBC, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice said, "I've had
further discussions with my European colleagues, and we are designing, I
think, an important common strategy with Europe so that Iran knows there
is no other way."

As George Perkovich from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
notes, "The possibility of U.S. trade and investment offers a most
effective way to enhance Iranian decision-making. Instead of imposing
sanctions, which have punished Iranians for 24 years, a better strategy
would be to demonstrate the benefits of economic cooperation with the
U.S."

According to a nine-member bipartisan panel tasked with assessing the
quality of intelligence concerning the proliferation of nuclear, chemical
and biological weapons, data on Iran's weapons programs is inadequate.
With the report due out at the end of the month, The New York Times
reported that in "an effort to pre-empt any repeat of the experience in
Iraq, where prewar American assertions about illicit weapons proved to be
mistaken," members of the Senate Intelligence Committee have begun its own
review into the quality of intelligence on Iran. Already, on FOX News,
Vice President Dick Cheney is touting the report as "one of the most
important things that's going forward today."


NORTH KOREA

Whereas President Bush's "Axis of Evil" label during his 2002 State of the
Union address (and other policy changes) led to North Korea kicking UN
inspectors out of the country and withdrawing from the NPT, Condi Rice's
"outpost of tyranny" tag for North Korea during her confirmation hearing,
is ruffling a few feathers.

In a recent statement from Kim Jong Il, North Korea's reclusive leader
said, "In response to the Bush administration's increasingly hostile
policy.. we have manufactured nuclear weapons for self-defense." North
Korea has also threatened to resume testing of its long-range missiles,
despite a moratorium that's been in place since the Clinton
administration, and has said it will not resume six-nation talks.

White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan dismissed the nuclear
declaration as empty rhetoric, and said the U.S. remains committed to the
six-party talks and to a peaceful diplomatic resolution with North Korea.
But while the Bush administration repeatedly states it has no intention of
attacking or invading North Korea, the administration has been reluctant
to put forth any new diplomatic solutions - an ongoing point of contention
with North Korea. "We have wanted the six-party talks but we are compelled
to suspend our participation in the talks for an indefinite period till we
have recognized that there is justification for us to attend the talks and
there are ample conditions and atmosphere to expect positive results from
the talks," the North Korean Foreign Ministry said.

In past talks, North Korea said it would be willing to halt its plutonium
program as a first step in dismantling it. But does Pyongyang mean what it
says? As Leon Sigal from the Social Science Research Council rightly
states, "The surest way to find out is sustained diplomatic give-and-take.
Pyongyang isn't asking for much. It wants to exchange 'words for words'
and 'action for action.' It wants Washington to commit now to normalize
relations and give it written assurances not to attack it, impede its
economic development, or overthrow its government."


US DOUBLE STANDARDS

As Richard Butler, former head of the UN Special Commission to Disarm
Iraq, rightly notes, "The Bush Administration has not only refused to
adhere to its obligation under the treaty and the additional promise of
2000, but has now embarked on what is anathema under the treaty - the
production of a new generation of nuclear weapons ... It beggars belief
that the Administration appears to believe it can succeed in restraining
Iran while it proceeds to violate its obligations."

The administration's 2006 Department of Energy budget is proof enough of
the priorities within the Bush administration. According to the Center for
Defense Information, the overall DOE budget decreased by 2%, yet funding
for the National Nuclear Security Administration rose by $233 million. The
good news is that funding for nuclear nonproliferation portion increased
by 15.1%, the bulk of which will go to eliminating weapons-grade plutonium
production in Russia. There was also an increase in funding to the Global
Threat Reduction Initiative ($93.8 million in 2005, $98 million in 2006) -
these funds are for cases like Libya where nonproliferation and
dismantlement funding is urgently required. On the down side, funding for
the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator or "bunker buster" which was
successfully cancelled in the 2005 budget, has reappeared in the 2006
budget at $4 million. The Bush administration plans to spend $26 million
over the next two years to complete a study on the bunker buster. And
additional funding of $7.68 million was requested to enhance testing and
weapons production capabilities. SEE LINK BELOW

Another sticking point in negotiations over nuclear proliferation is U.S.
policy towards Israel. Administration officials rarely acknowledge
Israel's nuclear weapons and the affect that has on the region. Saudi
foreign minister, Prince Saud Faisal told Newsweek, "Iran is always
mentioned but no one mentions Israel, which has [nuclear] weapons
already." He went on to note, "We wish the international community would
enforce the movement to make the Middle East a nuclear-free zone," an
issue which Arab countries have said will be discussed at the upcoming NPT
review conference.

It's time to face the reality that nuclear weapons are ill suited to
defend the U.S. against the most pressing and likely threats - terrorists.
Furthermore, if the U.S. insists on maintaining the nuclear arsenal of the
past and creating new nuclear weapons for the future, other countries will
certainly presume this is the only path to follow. The fact is we can't
have it both ways, the double standard of "do as I say, not as I do" must
stop.

With the increasing costs of the war in Iraq, one of the most compelling
arguments for a change in U.S. nuclear policy may come down to funding and
potential trade-offs within the Defense Department. "We spend over $6.5
billion a year baby-sitting an arsenal of nuclear weapons," says David
Hobson (OH-R) who sits on the House Appropriations Committee and led the
campaign to slash funding for new nuclear weapons in last years budget. He
continues, "That's a lot of money in the current environment, when we
don't have enough money for armor for kids on the ground in Iraq ... And
we spend less than $500 million a year helping to secure weapons-grade
nuclear material overseas to make sure it is not stolen and smuggled into
our country."

The upcoming NPT review conference provides the perfect opportunity to put
all of these issues on the table, and more importantly, to come up with
viable, practical solutions. While the NPT itself provides a commitment to
nuclear disarmament from its signatories, a new report from the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace has provided a more comprehensive
approach for all nations.

The report calls for a tougher international policy to deter the spread of
nuclear weapons, and puts new demands on declared and undeclared nuclear
states alike. The study recommendations include: state that withdraw from
the NPT should be barred from legally using nuclear assets, NPT members
should suspend nuclear cooperation with countries not certified by the UN
as complying with non-proliferation obligations, the five declared nuclear
powers must disavow development of new nuclear weapons and ratify the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, and India, Pakistan and Israel should
accept all nonproliferation obligations accepted by the five declared
nuclear states. LINK BELOW


TAKE ACTION - from Peace Action

Contact your members of Congress: No Means NO on new Nukes!

Like a petulant teen who is told that he cannot use the car and then tries
to sneak the keys off the hook when the adults aren't looking, George Bush
is trying to get our tax dollars to build new nuclear weapons.

Last fall, Congressional Republicans and Democrats came together to
eliminate all money for new nuclear weapons. It's rare in Washington these
days for politicians from both sides of the aisle to come together,
putting aside partisan politics, to do what's right for the country and
the world. However, both Republican and Democrats found (after being
reminded by people like us) that the Bush policy of planning to build new
nuclear weapons, after starting a war in the name of stopping nuclear
proliferation, so hypocritical that they came together to put an end to
Bush's dangerous folly. However, Bush does not understand that No means
NO. In the 2006 Federal Budget that Bush submitted in February, Bush has
tried to pull a fast one and restore the funds for new nukes. Rep. Ed
Markey (D-MA) is leading the effort to maintain the bipartisan momentum
towards common sense that the House built last fall.

Congress needs to hear from you. Tell your representatives to tell the
President, "No means NO on new nukes!" Please take action by using our
direct email connection to your congressional representative. Go to:
http://hq.demaction.org


RESOURCES:

Universal Compliance: A Strategy for Nuclear Security, from the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, March 2005.

Nuclear Arms Control: The Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, from the
Congressional Research Service, January 21, 2005.

Overview of FY 2006 Department of Energy Request, from the Center for
Defense Information, February 23, 2005.

BOLTON
John Bolton as UN Ambassador?, Village Voice, Ward Harkavy, March 8, 2005.

Bush Appoints Right-Wing Extremist to UN Post, Interpress News Service,
Jim Lobe, March 7, 2005.

______________
The Arms Trade Resource Center was established in 1993 to engage in public
education and policy advocacy aimed at promoting restraint in the
international arms trade.

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