Jim,
 
I should add, upon re-reading your comments, that the idea of possibility that I've been discussing has pretty much been in terms of ignorance, but it seems to me that the terms don't need to be essentially in terms of ignorance. If one is talking about a future event, then the reason for one's ignorance of the outcome may be the uncertainty and vagueness of current things themselves as determinants of the future -- the uncertainty is not just "in one's head," nor even just "necessarily in one's head, by the nature of intelligence." I think that Peirce agrees that not all uncertainty is merely epistemic, since he holds that chance is real.
 
For my own part, I consider standard 1st-order logic as a low-resolution, "low-pixelage" picture of the real for this reason among others. The idea that a true proposition (zero-place predicate) about concrete things is true of all concrete things everywhere and everywhen seems -- somehow -- at odds with the idea that the relevant information is not everywhere and everywhen, if indeed chance is real (for my part, I think it's real). That is to say that our concrete Big-Bang universe differs in some logically deep way from a 1st-order logical universe of discourse -- well, who could be shocked! shocked! by that, but what I mean is, that the idea of a flat-out in-or-out membership in a universe of discourse seems a crude beginning for understanding what sort of universe of "discourse" and information it is that we actually live in. It's not that I've forgotten that, in a 1st-order logical universe, there can be true contingent propositions which don't imply each other -- I get that, but chance and uncertainty seem (to me) deeper and more complicated in the concrete world, for some reason.
 
Best, Ben Udell
 
----- Original Message -----
 
Jim,
 
> [Jim Willgoose] The proposition "She is possibly pregnant" is easily understood by all. I overstated my case. (nor is their a potential contradiction) But I think it masks a problem for the theory of cognition, and furthermore, not all ordinary expressions are as clear as they might be.  So, we might try to rephrase some expressions if they do not fit the theory. It appears here that "possibility" reflects a state of ignorance with respect to the predicate.  How far can the theory be extended and still work? The abstracted quality "pregnancy" can be identified.  But can "possible pregnancy" be identified? I think your response would be "so much the worse for the theory."  As you said previously, it is not rich enough.  As for the matter of my particular interpretation of "possibility" being nowhere near shouting distance of ordinary Engish, that may be a virtue. Consider that a definite, actual stove cannot have contrary predicates.  So, there is only one individual under consideration regardless of our ignorance of the predicate.  The statements cannot both be true and in that sense they are inconsistent with each other.  In any case, do you think some of your examples can be handled by Peirce's theory of cognition?
 
A possible pregnancy could be idenitified as being in respect of signs positive but inconclusive about pregnancy. In the given case, there would need to be an understood threshhold, even if only a vague one, for what the mind counts as representing a significant degree of possibility, as in practical affairs wherein one signifies that one is momentarily departing from just such a practical understood norm by saying something like, "well, it's _theoretically_ possible but...," etc. I don't know to what extent modal logics have dealt with these issues or instead leave them to the user along with the standard advice to be consistent across the given case.
 
Note that any problem with the idea of a possible pregnancy is also part of a problem with a flat-out modal proposition such as "Possibly there is a pregnant woman" or any propostion of the form "Possibly[Ex(Gx&Hx)]. In any non-empty universe, certain Ex, there is something. So it's a question of the possibility of Hx&Gx. If one goes even simpler, "Possibly[ExHx], then in any non-empty universe the same question about a "possibly H" will be raised.
 
Theories of probability and statistics are among the ways of dealing with possibility more variegatedly. There's also fuzzy logic, or at least a fuzzified modal logic (I presume), in order to deal with ways to formalize the informality and vagueness involved with talking about things like "maybe pregnant," "oh just possibly pregnant," etc.
 
I don't see why you consider "possibly black" and "possibly non-black" contrary. They seem for all the world to be _subcontrary_ -- it seems that of a given subject they can both be true but they can't both be false. "Necessarily black" and "necessarily non-black" -- those seem contrary, since it seems that of a given subject they can both be false but can't both be true.
 
Boldface: *3 any-pair-wise contraries*, collectively exhausting the options (usually one would say "exhausting the possibilities" but the word "possible" itself appears in the table, so, in order to avoid confusion....)
Italics: _3 any-pair-wise subcontaries_, whose negatives collectively exhaust the options.
 
~ ~ ~ _necessary or impossible_ ~ ~ ~
 
*necessary* ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ *impossible*
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ >|< ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
_possible_ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _unnecessary_ (=possible non-)
 
~ ~ *possible and unnecessary* ~ ~
 
_necessary or
impossible_
*necessary* *impossible* X
possible or
impossible
_possible_ _unnecessary_ *possible &
unnecessary*
 
Boldface: *4 any-pair-wise contraries*, collectively exhausting the options.
Italics: _4 any-pair-wise subcontaries_, whose negatives collectively exhaust the options.
Table pattern in familiar case (Boolean quantification).
I iff A *I&A* *O&E* F
_AvE_ A E *A&E*
_IvO_ I O *I&O*
T _IvA_ _OvE_ I iff O
 
not contingent *necessarily true* *necessarily false* X
_not contingently true_ necessarily true or
contingently false
false *contingently false*
_not contingently false_ true necessarily false or
contingently true
*contingently true*
true or false _possibly true_ _possibly false_ contingent
 
Rearranged a little, but table has same overall oppositional properties:
 
necessarily true or
contingently false
*necessarily true *contingently false* X
_not contingently true_ not contingent false *necessarily false*
_possibly true_ true contingent *contingently true*
true or false _not contingently false_ _possibly false_ necessarily false or
contingently true
 
> [Jim] How far can the theory be extended and still work? [....] As you said previously, it is not rich enough.
 
I didn't say that Peirce's theory isn't rich enough, although the idea that in some general sense it isn't rich enough is an obvious implication of what I've been saying. More specifically, the stove example isn't rich enough, and I mean that it isn't rich enough for expository purposes -- the "whetherhood" that I'm discussing is there in the idea that the stove is _affirmatively_ black, but such whetherhood is not brought into relief, it's just too "vanilla." Likewise such relationships as "another than" are only weakly presented.
 
> [Jim] In any case, do you think some of your examples can be handled by Peirce's theory of cognition?
 
I haven't been discussing a general _theory_ by Peirce about cognition. If I were familiar with such a theory, I might end up thinking that it is more adequate than his categorial and semiotic threefolds, just as I do think in regard to his pragmaticism with its definitive ideas about clarification by appeal to relevant experience. Whether one holds that his theorized category scheme is adequate for a complete cognition may depend at least partly on such questions as whether one accepts that selfsameness/otherness and the selfsames/others themselves comprise a single category -- the very daring and, I think, mistaken, conflation of 'dyadic' mathematical relations with thisness/reaction/resistance--, while accident & its attribution are in two different categories (though in the Peircean context perhaps one should think of the attribution of quality to reaction/resistance). But I've gone over these and related issues more extensively in recent posts.
 
Best,
Ben Udell
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