Messy Business
So ok, if the shipping industry (in its widest sense) is to blame...what do the
experts at the German Institute for Economic Research think are the solutions?
Do they agree that fixing Somalia and having an increased naval presence will
help? No!
Au contraire, they actually believe that, "piracy is likely to increase if
Somalia's domestic". Oh rats....they see that stability in Somalia is
correlated with an increase in pirate attacks. Their results show that pirates
benefit from local improvements in governance. Indeed short-term gains in local
stability have always moved pirates further into their `piratical sweet spot',
while periods of insecurity have actually disrupted their activities.
So ok, what of the boys in blue and the great work of the naval force, surely
they must be doing some good? No again! The report paints a picture that naval
counter-piracy initiatives are not a significant deterrent to pirates. They go
on to stress, "While the navies correctly highlight their achievements in terms
of deterring attacks on specific ships and in guarding food deliveries these
are essentially short term, geographically limited successes. We find that
pirates have extended their sphere of operation from the Gulf of Aden (where
shipping traffic and naval forces are concentrated) into areas that are not
easily monitored, such as the open waters off the coast of Somalia, the Arabian
Sea and the Indian Ocean off the coast of Kenya, Tanzania and the Seychelles".
In other words, of the two solutions that the international community has
proposed (naval intervention and the restoration of order to Somalia) neither
at the moment is likely to succeed. Moreover, the underlying lack of incentives
to stop piracy for pirates, for the insurance industry and for international
navies - may render most policy solutions useless.
This is a major concern and is actually one that the International Chamber of
Shipping (ICS) is desperately trying to raise. For all the plaudits, the pat on
the backs and the cheers there are serious concerns about the lack of
co-ordinated intelligence on piracy attacks in the Indian Ocean.
While the naval "successes" in the Gulf of Aden have been welcome, there now
seems an urgent need for a strategic review of existing anti-piracy operations
out in the Indian Ocean. Sadly it seems the closer we get to a solution the
further it slips from our grasp.
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