[PEN-L:3175] Re: Frank's long waves/kondratieff cycles

[Rosser Jr, John Barkley]

Ricardo,
     Sorry.  I meant to say 50 years, not centuries.  
Braudel sees the collapse of the tenth century as the 
result of a century of depravations due to the Viking 
invasions, which started earlier, along with a final 
collapse of leftover Roman urban settlements.
Barkley Rosser
On Wed, 10 Feb 1999 10:10:59 -0400 Ricardo Duchesne 
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> 
> Barkley, perhaps because pen-l was inundated by postings yesterday, 
> the logic of my own post may have escaped readers, but if you read my 
> paragraph on long waves, cited again below, you will see that what I 
> say about Frank's long waves (which are *not* the same as Braudel's 
> long duree)  is that they were interrupted by shorter kondratieff 
> cycles. 
> 
> Another point, the viking invasions were not associated with a 
> Malthusian crisis, nor was the Malthusian crisis of the 14th century
> preceded by "50 centuries" of famines, but I guess this latter one was 
> just a typo. 
> 
> ricardo
> 
> 
> 
> >      Since Ricardo brings up "long waves" in connection 
> > with the discussion of Frank, let me simply note that these 
> > are Braudel "la duree" 300-400 year waves and not the lower 
> > level 40-50 year Kondratievs.  Braudel also labeled these 
> > "geographical" cycles and they have demographic, even 
> > Malthusian, component that is very important.
> >      Thus, for Braudel, "crashes" coincided with Malthusian 
> > population declines due to war, famine, pestilence.  In 
> > Europe these include the plague deaths in the Eastern 
> > Mediterranean that paved the way for the displacement of 
> > Greeks with Slavs and Turks.  Then in the 900s associated 
> > with Viking invasions and general collapses.  Then there is 
> > the major blowout of the "Black Death" of the mid 1300s 
> > which was preceded by about 50 centuries of mounting 
> > famines weakening the immune systems of the populations 
> > that died of plague.  And then we have a similar blowout in 
> > the late 1600s.  
> >      Frank used to argue that such points are when one can 
> > get a switch between European and Asian dominance and that 
> > we are now at such a switch point again on this much longer 
> > long wave (Braudel, not Kondratiev), even if we are not 
> > having a collapse/blowout in the European/North American 
> > zone.
> > Barkley Rosser 
> > On Tue, 9 Feb 1999 15:30:17 -0400 Ricardo Duchesne 
> 
> 
> 
> > > Frank approaches this using the theory of long waves. He speaks of a 
> > > major "A" phase period of  world expansion from AD 1000/1050 to 
> > > 1250/1300, followed by a contraction from 1250 to 1450, followed by a 
> > > a new "A" phase expansion after 1450. In both these two "A" 
> > > phases, he says, China was the center of  world expansion. This post 
> > > 1450 growth lasted into the 18th century, followed  by "B" phase 
> > > contraction after 1800. Now, this long post-1450 expansive cycle, 
> > > like any other long wave, experienced a Kondratieff "B" phase 
> > > downturn in the 17th century, one which, however, hit the "weaker" 
> > > European economy harder than it did Asia. 
> > > 
> > > But another Kondratieff  "B" cycle that hit after the 1760s gave 
> > > Europe the chance to overcome its (still) marginal position in the 
> > > world economy 
> 
>  
> 

-- 
Rosser Jr, John Barkley
[EMAIL PROTECTED]