> > Ian wrote:
> >
> > > Not to quibble, but given what we know of physics,
> > > ecology etc. there can be no such thing as an energy
> > > crisis in our niche of the cosmos.
> >
> > But there can be an oil crisis, can't there? Probably that day is
> > not tomorrow but, sooner or later, there will come a day when we
> > will run out of oil or when it will be too expensive to extract
> > what is left. And unless we can find an alternative energy source
> > before then, wouldn't that be a crisis some sort?
> >
> > Sabri
>
> ===============
Ian:
> A social and technological crisis, yes. Because we failed to
> adequately invest time, knowledge etc. in diversifying our exergy
> portfolio. Using up all the oil and "crashing" would be the effect of a failure
> to invest; it wouldn't be due to a shortage of energy available to sustain human
> societies. I follow Veblen somewhat on this score; the scientists-engineers
> will gain sufficient political influence over the current
> crop of morons. Not that I advocate a technocracy; just that there are still
> a lot of very smart people on our planet who reject "fatalism" in all its
> forms. We'll see...........
I don't think that the current bunch of morons (including their pet scientists & engineers) will be replaced -- except by another bunch of morons -- unless there actually is an energy crisis. It was the 1970s that produced the relatively limited conservation efforts we have. And the post-1970s era, relatively low oil prices have encouraged back-sliding on conservation, expressed most explicitly by the Bush League's petrogarchy.
Energy crises aren't due to natural scarcity as much as the tendency for capitalist accumulation to plow ahead, driven by the battle of competition. There may be a rational solution -- progressive moves toward conservation and the use of renewable sources of energy -- but capitalism isn't rational on the aggregate level. Thus capitalist demand shoots up the oil supply curve leading to price peaks that could (in theory) be avoided and lead to falling profit rates (cet. par.) This leads to recession, retrenchment, and retribution (against oil producing countries). As usual, every effort is made to shift the cost to working people...
Jim
